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October 6, 2023
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The Mountain West Conference heats up on Wednesday, February 26th, as the Utah State Aggies travel to ExtraMile Arena in Boise, Idaho to face the Boise State Broncos in a crucial late-season matchup. This contest features significant implications for the Mountain West standings, with Utah State currently tied for first place while Boise State sits in fifth position.
The Aggies enter this contest with an impressive 24-4 overall record (14-3 in conference play), demonstrating remarkable consistency throughout the season. Meanwhile, the Broncos bring a solid 19-8 record (11-5 in conference) into this home contest, where they’ve established a formidable advantage with six consecutive victories at ExtraMile Arena.
This matchup presents a fascinating contrast between Utah State’s high-powered offense, which ranks 8th nationally in offensive rating, against Boise State’s disciplined defensive approach that has limited opponents’ facilitation opportunities throughout the season.
The Utah State Aggies have established themselves as one of the Mountain West’s premier teams this season, showcasing an offensive efficiency that few opponents have managed to contain. Coming off an impressive 79-71 victory over San Diego State, the Aggies have won five of their last six contests, with their lone setback being a narrow 82-79 defeat at New Mexico.
Utah State’s offensive prowess stems from their exceptional shooting efficiency, converting 49.7% of their field goal attempts and 37% from beyond the arc. This sharpshooting has propelled them to 82.5 points per game, creating significant challenges for opposing defenses.
Dexter Akanno‘s recent 26-point performance against San Diego State highlighted his emerging role as a scoring threat, while the consistent Ian Martinez continues to lead the team with 17.3 points per game. The versatile Mason Falslev supplements the attack with 14.8 points while contributing 6.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists per contest, giving the Aggies multiple offensive weapons.
Perhaps most impressive is Utah State’s ball security and distribution, ranking 7th nationally with a 1.70 assist-to-turnover ratio. This disciplined approach has been a cornerstone of their success, particularly in conference matchups where they’ve won seven of their last eight night games against Mountain West opponents.
The Boise State Broncos enter this contest riding a wave of momentum, having secured victories in six of their last seven outings. Their most recent triumph, a heart-stopping 70-69 win over Nevada, demonstrated their resilience in close games – a quality that could prove decisive in this high-stakes conference battle.
Boise State’s defensive identity has been their calling card, limiting opponents to just 66.3 points per game. Their disciplined approach has disrupted opposing offenses, ranking 19th nationally in opponent steals allowed (5.3 per game) and 26th in opponent assists permitted (10.7 per game). This defensive structure forces teams to create individually rather than through facilitation.
Offensively, the Broncos are led by Tyson Degenhart, whose 18.2 points and 6.1 rebounds per game make him one of the conference’s most complete forwards. Andrew Meadow’s breakout 24-point performance against Nevada signals his emerging role as a secondary scoring option, while Alvaro Cardenas orchestrates the offense with 6.9 assists per contest.
The Broncos’ home-court advantage at ExtraMile Arena cannot be overlooked – they’ve won nine consecutive night games against non-ranked opponents in their arena, creating a significant hurdle for the visiting Aggies, who have struggled historically in this venue, losing five of their last six matchups against non-ranked Boise State teams.
When examining the statistical profiles of these teams, clear strengths emerge on both sides. Utah State’s offensive efficiency (121.0 rating, 8th nationally) contrasts with Boise State’s defensive structure that has consistently disrupted opponent ball movement.
| Category | Utah State | Boise State |
| Points Per Game | 82.5 | 76.1 |
| Points Allowed | 69.5 | 66.3 |
| Field Goal % | 49.7% | 47.2% |
| 3-Point % | 37.0% | 32.2% |
| Free Throw % | 70.0% | 76.9% |
| Rebounds | 35.1 | 36.3 |
| Assists | 18.4 | 14.9 |
The rebounding battle could prove decisive, with Boise State holding a slight edge (36.3 to 35.1 rebounds per game). However, Utah State’s superior assist numbers (18.4 per game) reflect their commitment to ball movement and creating high-percentage scoring opportunities.
Recent scoring trends suggest contrasting styles as well, with eight of Boise State’s last nine conference games staying under 149 total points, while four of Utah State’s last five contests have exceeded 161 points. This disparity highlights the potential clash of tempos that could determine the outcome.
Despite Boise State’s tendency to play in lower-scoring affairs during conference play, this matchup appears primed to follow Utah State’s recent trend toward higher-scoring contests. The Aggies’ offensive efficiency (nearly 50% from the field) combined with their propensity for pushing tempo suggests they’ll challenge Boise State’s defensive structure.
The Broncos’ home-court advantage will likely keep this game competitive throughout, with Degenhart and Cardenas creating scoring opportunities against Utah State’s defense. However, the Aggies’ multiple offensive weapons and superior three-point shooting efficiency should generate consistent scoring.
When these teams previously met this season, they combined for 160 points, establishing a precedent for an uptempo affair. With Utah State’s recent games consistently producing high totals and Boise State playing with increased offensive confidence during their recent winning streak, expect a contest that exceeds the 150.5 point threshold.
Final Prediction: While both teams have legitimate paths to victory, the total points market presents the most compelling opportunity. Take the OVER on the total points, with expectations of a final score in the 155-165 range as these Mountain West contenders trade baskets in a back-and-forth battle at ExtraMile Arena.
Why has Utah State been so successful this season despite not being ranked in the AP Top 25?
Utah State’s offensive efficiency has been their primary strength, ranking 8th nationally in offensive rating. Their balanced attack features three players averaging double-figures, led by Ian Martinez’s 17.3 points per game. Perhaps most importantly, their exceptional assist-to-turnover ratio (1.70, 7th nationally) demonstrates a disciplined approach that maximizes possessions and creates high-percentage scoring opportunities. This combination of efficiency and balance has allowed them to compete at the top of the Mountain West despite flying somewhat under the national radar.
Does Boise State have a legitimate chance to win the Mountain West Tournament?
Absolutely. The Broncos’ defensive structure and recent form (winning six of their last seven games) make them a dangerous tournament team. Their ability to disrupt opposing offenses (ranking 19th nationally in limiting steals and 26th in limiting assists) creates uncomfortable matchups for higher-seeded teams. Additionally, Tyson Degenhart gives them a go-to scorer capable of taking over games in critical moments. Their experience in close games – like their recent one-point victory over Nevada – provides valuable preparation for tournament settings where possessions are magnified in importance.
What factors will determine whether the total points go over or under 150.5?
The pace of play will be the determining factor. Utah State prefers an uptempo style that has resulted in four of their last five games exceeding 161 points. Conversely, Boise State has played more controlled, defensive-oriented games, with eight of their last nine conference matchups staying under 149 points. If Utah State can establish their preferred pace and shooting rhythm early, they’ll push the total higher. However, if Boise State can force the Aggies into a half-court game and disrupt their passing lanes, they could keep the score lower. The historical precedent of 160 points in their previous meeting suggests the offensive styles may prevail.
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