USC vs Louisville – Breakdown and Prediction

John Mersits CSM Sipa USA Photo by Icon Sport

USC vs Louisville: DIRECTV Holiday Bowl

USC and Louisville will round up on Wednesday night at Petco Park in San Diego, California, in the DIRECTV Holiday Bowl. Both teams do not look quite the same as during the regular season, with many players declaring for the NFL Draft or going into the transfer portal.

USC regular season breakdown

The USC Trojans finished the season fourth in the Pac-12 with a 7-5 record and will be moving to the Big 10 Conference next season. The Trojans’ year saw two completely different halves. They started by winning the first six games of the season by scoring no less than 42 points. The second part of the season was completely different, as they lost five of the last six games and are going into this one with three straight losses. Their last game was more than five weeks ago, when they lost 38-20 to UCLA. USC is third in the country with 7.3 yards per play and 12th with 468.4 total yards per game.

Louisville regular season breakdown

The Louisville Cardinals finished second in the ACC with a 10-3 record. They had only one loss going into the final two weeks of the regular season but then failed to Kentucky and Florida State in the last game. Louisville’s offense is ranked 44th in the country with 420.4 total yards per game, 16th in the country allowing 307.3 yards per game, and sixth with 54.3% pass completions.

Betting Trends

USC is 3-9 ATS for the season, 1-2 as an underdog and 1-3 after a loss.

Player to watch

Senior QB Jack Plummer will start for the Cardinals, and he has 3,063 passing yards this season. He is coming off the worst performance of the season, completing only 14 of 36 attempts in a 16-6 Cardinals loss to Florida State, but has been very consistent before that. Plummer previously played for California and Purdue and is finishing his college career with this game.

Injury Report

No injuries on both teams.

Prediction and Conclusion

The Louisville Cardinals are going into this game as a 7-point favorite, with the total set at 58 points. The main reason for that is all the players the Trojans will miss in this game. Caleb Williams is already preparing for the NFL Draft, where he is expected to be the No. 1 pick. USC is a completely different team without him and to make things even more difficult for them MarShawn Lloyd and Brendan Rice are in the transfer portal, and the Trojans cannot count on their four best running backs. USC is only 3-9 against the spread for the season and 1-4 in the last five games, so with the roster they have, Louisville will take home the win by covering the spread.

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