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Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev – Breakdown and Prediction

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA

Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev: ATP Rome – Round of 16

One of the best American players Tommy Paul will take on Daniil Medvedev in the round of 16 at the ATP Rome.


Tommy Paul Profile

Tommy Paul is currently 16th in the ATP rankings, four spots lower than his career high. The American is 17-7 for the season and 3-1 on clay surfaces.

He is coming off a 6-4, 6-3 win over Daniel Koepfer in the third round after beating Aslan Karatsev 6-4, 6-2 in the second.

Last week, in Madrid, Paul lost to Francisco Cerundolo in the third round.

His best result of the season is the title in Dallas, where he defeated Marcos Giron in the final, and the final in Delray Beach, where he lost to Taylor Fritz.

This is his fifth appearance in Rome and the first time to go this deep.


Daniil Medvedev Profile

Daniil Medvedev is currently fourth in the ATP rankings and is one of only a couple of active players who have been at the top of the rankings at a certain point in their career. The defending champion in Rome is 24-6 for the season and 6-2 on clay courts.

Medvedev is coming off a 7-6, 2-6, 7-5 win over Hamad Medjedovic and a 7-5, 6-4 win over Jack Draper in the previous rounds.

Last week in Madrid, he retired in the quarterfinal match against Jiri Lehecka.

Medvedev lost both finals this season to Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open and in Indian Wells to Carlos Alcaraz.

This is his fifth appearance in Rome, and last year he won the title, beating Holger Rune in the final.


Head-to-Head Medvedev leads 3-0

  • Medvedev vs Paul 1-6, 7-6, 6-2 (2024 ATP Indian Wells, semifinal)
  • Medvedev vs Paul 6-2, 6-1 (2023 ATP Beijing, first round)
  • Medvedev vs Paul 3-6, 6-1, 6-4, 6-3 (2021 Roland Garros, second round)


Prediction and Conclusion

Daniil Medvedev is the highest-ranked player left in the tournament and the favorite to defend the title won last year in Rome. However, the Russian is not on top of his game after he had a minor injury last week in Madrid and barely won the last match against Medjedovic. Tommy Paul, on the other side, is at full speed, attacking the top 10 in the rankings. Even though clay is not his favorite surface, he has been playing well in Rome and is ready for the challenge. Paul almost beat Medvedev in the semifinals in Indian Wells earlier this year, and he will stand a chance today as well. Given the current state and the odds, we are going with Paul winning at least a set in this match.

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