Taylor Fritz vs Andrey Rublev – Breakdown and Prediction

May 3, 2024

Taylor Fritz vs Andrey Rublev: ATP Madrid – Semifinal

For the ninth time in their careers, Taylor Fritz and Andrey Rublev will play against each other, this time with the ATP Madrid final on the line.

Carlos Alcaraz Profile

Taylor Fritz is 13th in the ATP rankings, and last season he reached his career high of No. 5 in the world. The American is 19-7 for the season and 7-2 on clay surfaces.

Fritz is coming off a 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 win over Francisco Cerundolo in the quarterfinals. Earlier in the tournament, he defeated Hubert Hurkacz, Sebastian Baez and Luca Darderi, all in straight sets.

Last week, he lost in the final in Munich to Jan-Lennard Struff in straight sets. Earlier this season, Fritz won the title in Delray Beach.

This is his sixth appearance in Madrid, and has made it to the semifinals for the first time.

Andrey Rublev Profile

Andrey Rublev is eighth in the ATP rankings, three spots lower than his career high. The Russian is 19-8 for the season and 4-2 on clay courts.

He is coming off a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 win over Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinal. Previously in the tournament, Rublev defeated Tallon Griekspoor, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Facundo Bagnis.

Those were his first wins after losing in the opening round of three consecutive tournaments in Barcelona, Monte Carlo, and Miami.

Rublev won the title in Hong Kong in the first week of the season and made it to the semifinals in Dubai, where he was disqualified in the match against Alexander Bublik.

This is Rublev’s fourth appearance in Madrid and he has made it to the semifinals for the first time.

Head-to-Head – Fritz leads 5-3

Fritz vs Rublev 6-2, 7-6 (2023 Laver Cup)
Rublev vs Fritz 5-7, 6-1, 6-3 (2023 ATP Monte Carlo, semifinals)
Fritz vs Rublev 6-7, 6-2, 7-5 (2022 ATP Cincinnati, round of 16)
Fritz vs Rublev 7-5, 6-4 (2022 ATP Indian Wells, semifinal)
Fritz vs Rublev 7-5, 7-6 (2021 Paris Masters, second round)
Rublev vs Fritz 6-3, 6-1 (2021 ATP Dubai, round of 16)
Rublev vs Fritz 4-2, 1-4, 3-4, 4-3, 4-2 (2018 ATP NextGen)
Fritz vs Rublev 6-4, 7-6 (2018 ATP Indian Wells, second round)

Prediction and Conclusion

Both players have had a solid week in Madrid and need this win to pick up their form and confidence as the clay season progresses. Fritz is the one who leads the head-to-head record against Rublev, but the Russian has a much better record on clay surfaces. Rublev plays with a chip on his shoulder after early exits in the previous three tournaments, and he proved that he is on top of his form with a comeback win over Alcaraz. Fritz will be competitive while his first serve works, but Rublev will be the one to win the crucial points and advance to the final.