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Spurs vs Pelicans Preview: NBA Southwest Showdown at Smoothie King Center

The San Antonio Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans are set to face off in a compelling Southwest Division matchup at the Smoothie King Center on Tuesday. This contest features two teams heading in different directions, with both squads dealing with significant injury challenges. Our comprehensive analysis breaks down everything you need to know before this pivotal NBA clash.

Current Form Analysis: Teams Heading in Different Directions

The San Antonio Spurs enter this contest in the midst of a concerning slump, having dropped 12 of their previous 17 games. Their recent form is particularly troubling, with consecutive losses to the Detroit Pistons and these same New Orleans Pelicans just days ago. The absence of phenom Victor Wembanyama for the remainder of the season has clearly impacted the team’s performance trajectory.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans present an interesting case study in home-court advantage. Despite holding just a 24.6% overall winning percentage this season—placing them near the bottom of the Western Conference—the Pelicans have secured 10 of their 14 victories on their home court. Their recent performance includes a loss to the Dallas Mavericks followed by a convincing 114-96 victory over these same Spurs on Sunday.

Statistical Breakdown: Offensive and Defensive Metrics

The Spurs’ offensive production has remained relatively consistent despite their struggles, averaging 112.7 points per game on 46% shooting from the field. Defensively, they’re allowing 114.5 points on 46.5% opponent shooting. One bright spot has been their perimeter defense, holding opponents to 35.8% from beyond the arc.

The Pelicans have struggled to find consistent offensive rhythm, posting 110.1 points per game on 44.7% shooting. Their defensive vulnerabilities are more pronounced, surrendering 119.2 points per contest on 48.5% shooting. New Orleans has particularly struggled with perimeter defense, allowing opponents to connect on 36.7% of three-point attempts.

What stands out from a statistical perspective is the Pelicans’ ranking near the bottom of the league (29th) in both opponent three-point field goal attempts (39.8) and opponent field goals made per game (43.8). Conversely, the Spurs have excelled at limiting free throw opportunities, ranking 2nd league-wide by allowing just 18.2 opponent free throw attempts per game.

Key Personnel: Impact Players and Injury Concerns

For San Antonio, De’Aaron Fox has stepped up as the primary offensive catalyst, averaging 21.8 points and 4.8 rebounds. Devin Vassell has provided secondary scoring with 15.3 points while adding 2.8 assists per game. Rookie Stephon Castle has shown flashes of potential as the team’s third double-digit scorer, while Keldon Johnson contributes playmaking with 1.5 assists per contest.

New Orleans continues to be powered by Zion Williamson‘s dynamic presence, as the former #1 overall pick averages 24.5 points and 7.5 rebounds. Veteran CJ McCollum provides essential perimeter scoring with 22.1 points and 3.8 rebounds. Trey Murphy III has emerged as a reliable third scoring option, while Brandon Boston contributes on the glass with 3.2 rebounds per game.

Both teams are navigating significant injury challenges. The Pelicans will be without the services of Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, and Brandon Boston. Meanwhile, the Spurs’ injury report includes Riley Minix, Victor Wembanyama, and Charles Bassey—with Wembanyama’s season-ending absence representing the most impactful loss.

Historical Trends and Betting Patterns

Several interesting trends emerge when examining the historical matchups between these Southwest Division rivals:

Favoring New Orleans:

• The Spurs have struggled in night games against Southwest Division opponents, losing seven of their last eight such contests.

• The Pelicans have dominated recent head-to-head matchups, winning their last six games against the Spurs following a victory.

• Betting trends support New Orleans as well, with the Spurs failing to cover the spread in eight consecutive night games against Southwest Division opponents.

• Favorites have covered the spread in five of the last six Spurs games at Smoothie King Center.

Supporting San Antonio:

• The Pelicans have struggled significantly against teams on the first leg of a back-to-back, losing 12 of their last 13 such matchups.

• The Spurs have historically performed well at Smoothie King Center following road losses, winning five of their last six in this scenario.

• Against the spread, the Spurs have covered in each of their last three games as underdogs on the first leg of a back-to-back.

• The Pelicans have failed to cover in five of their last six games against opponents playing the front end of back-to-back games.

Expert Prediction: Breaking Down the Southwest Division Clash

While conventional wisdom might suggest the Spurs have enough talent with Fox leading the charge to remain competitive, their recent trajectory tells a different story. Having lost seven of their last ten games, San Antonio appears to be in free-fall mode in the Western Conference standings.

The Pelicans’ convincing 114-96 victory over the Spurs just days ago provides a recent performance benchmark. While conventional wisdom acknowledges the difficulty of defeating the same opponent twice in rapid succession, the Spurs’ current form doesn’t inspire confidence in a dramatic turnaround.

Despite New Orleans having their own challenges this season, their significant home-court advantage (10 of 14 wins at home) combined with San Antonio’s downward spiral makes the Pelicans the more compelling choice, even laying the points. The absence of Wembanyama has clearly impacted the Spurs’ competitive ceiling, while the Pelicans appear positioned to capitalize on their home-court edge once again.

Final Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans (-5) over San Antonio Spurs

Insights

Why has San Antonio struggled so significantly without Wembanyama?

The Spurs built their defensive identity around Wembanyama’s elite rim protection and versatility. Without him, they’ve suffered a 3.2-point increase in opponent points in the paint per game and opponents are shooting 5.7% better within five feet of the basket. While Fox provides offensive production, the team’s defensive backbone has been compromised without their generational talent protecting the rim.

Can the Pelicans make a late-season push despite their current record?

With Zion Williamson producing at an All-Star level and their strong home-court performance (71.4% of wins coming at home), the Pelicans have shown they can compete when at full strength. Their remaining schedule features 19 home games, which could potentially allow them to improve their standing. However, the absences of Murray and Jones significantly limit their ceiling, making a dramatic turnaround unlikely unless they can get healthier.

What’s the most surprising statistic about this matchup?

The fact that the Spurs are one of only two NBA teams to lose a game when leading by 20+ points after the first quarter highlights their inconsistency and inability to maintain momentum. This vulnerability to significant momentum swings, combined with the Pelicans’ strength at home, creates an intriguing dynamic that could lead to unexpected game flows even if one team builds an early advantage.

How should fantasy basketball managers approach players from these teams?

With both squads dealing with significant injuries, several role players present interesting fantasy value. For the Spurs, Stephon Castle has seen his usage rate increase by 4.7% since Wembanyama’s injury, making him a potential streaming option. On the Pelicans side, Trey Murphy III has averaged 3.8 more field goal attempts per game with Murray sidelined, creating additional scoring opportunities that boost his fantasy ceiling.

What tactical adjustments should we expect from the previous matchup?

Look for the Spurs to emphasize perimeter defense after allowing the Pelicans to shoot 41.7% from three-point range in their previous meeting. San Antonio may employ more aggressive closeouts and potentially utilize more zone defense concepts to compensate for their lack of rim protection. The Pelicans will likely continue exploiting mismatches for Williamson in the paint while maintaining their approach of limiting Fox’s transition opportunities.