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October 6, 2023
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The Mountain West Conference delivers another compelling matchup as the San Jose State Spartans (12-15) head to Logan to face the formidable Utah State Aggies (22-4) at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum. This analysis breaks down every aspect of this intriguing conference battle, offering deep insights into both teams’ current form and potential outcomes.
The Aggies have transformed the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum into one of college basketball’s most intimidating venues, boasting an impressive 12-2 home record this season. Their success stems from an explosive offense that ranks 26th nationally, averaging 81.7 points per game. More remarkably, Utah State’s shooting efficiency stands out with a 49.7% field goal percentage, ranking 8th in Division I basketball.
The dynamic duo of Ian Martinez and Mason Falsley has been instrumental in the Aggies’ success. Martinez leads the charge with 17.1 points per game, while Falsley contributes a well-rounded 15.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists. These statistics highlight Utah State’s balanced attack, further enhanced by their exceptional team play, evidenced by ranking 5th nationally in assists (18.5 per game).
Despite their overall record suggesting otherwise, the Spartans have proven to be one of the most reliable teams against the spread, posting an impressive 18-6-1 ATS record. Led by Josh Uduje‘s 16.4 points per game and Will McClendon’s consistent 12-point contributions, San Jose State has demonstrated their ability to keep games competitive, particularly in conference play.
The Spartans’ defensive metrics reveal some promising trends, ranking 35th nationally in limiting opponent steals and 41st in opponent free throws made. These statistics suggest a disciplined approach that could prove crucial in a hostile environment.
The contrast in playing styles makes this matchup particularly interesting. Utah State’s high-powered offense (81.7 PPG) faces a San Jose State defense allowing 72.8 points per game. The Aggies’ superior shooting efficiency (49.7% FG) could prove decisive against the Spartans’ 45% field goal percentage.
One notable trend: nine of San Jose State’s last ten conference games have stayed under 141 total points, while historical meetings at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum have consistently produced totals under 149 points. This suggests a potentially lower-scoring affair than the teams’ previous 85-78 encounter this season.
The rivalry has heavily favored Utah State, who holds a 9-1 record in their last ten meetings against San Jose State. However, the Spartans’ recent form against the spread (7-2-1 in their last 10) indicates their ability to keep games closer than expected. Both teams have shown a tendency toward high-scoring contests, going 10-4 to the over in their last 14 games combined.
Why is Utah State such a heavy favorite (-16.5) despite their recent ATS struggles?
The combination of Utah State’s dominant home record (32-3 against non-ranked opponents) and San Jose State’s road difficulties (2-7) justifies the spread. However, the Spartans’ impressive ATS record suggests they consistently outperform expectations.
What’s the most telling statistic for this matchup?
Utah State’s 49.7% field goal percentage (7th nationally) stands out. In college basketball, efficient shooting often proves decisive, especially in home games where teams typically shoot better.
How significant is the first-half trend in this matchup?
Utah State has won the first half in their last 12 night games against San Jose State, suggesting strong game planning and execution. However, San Jose State’s recent trend of winning first halves in conference games (6 of last 7) creates an interesting dynamic.
What’s the best betting approach for this game?
Given both teams’ recent scoring trends and their previous meeting this season, the over looks promising. Both teams are 10-4 to the over in their last 14 games combined, and their contrasting styles could lead to a faster-paced game than their historical meetings suggest.
This comprehensive analysis reveals a matchup that might be more competitive than the spread suggests, despite Utah State’s clear advantages. The game promises to be an intriguing battle between the Aggies’ efficient offense and the Spartans’ ability to exceed expectations, particularly against the spread.
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