SipaUsa / Icon Sport

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force Falcons: Betting Analysis & Prediction

The San Diego State Aztecs are set to face off against the Air Force Falcons on Wednesday, January 22nd, at the Clune Arena. This matchup is pivotal for both teams as they navigate their seasons in the Mountain West Conference. Below, we provide an in-depth betting analysis, incorporating recent stats, trends, and player performances to help you make informed decisions.

Air Force Falcons Preview

The Air Force Falcons have struggled this season, holding a 3-15 overall record and sitting 11th in the Mountain West. Despite a disappointing 65-74 loss to Fresno State in their last game, they will look to defend their home court against a challenging opponent. Here’s a closer look at their stats:

• Record: 3-15 overall, 2-7 at home

• Against the Spread (ATS): 7-11

• Over/Under: 10-8

• Offense: Averaging 63.2 points per game (358th nationally)

• Defense: Allowing 69.9 points per game (127th nationally)

• Shooting:

• Field Goal Percentage: 44.5% (205th)

• Three-Point Percentage: 34.6% (151st)

• Free-Throw Percentage: 60.9% (362nd)

• Rebounds per Game: 29.2 (358th)

Key Player: Ethan Taylor leads the team with an average of 14.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game, showcasing his versatility. The Falcons’ next games include Utah State and Colorado State, adding urgency to secure a win here.

San Diego State Aztecs Preview

The San Diego State Aztecs have had a solid season so far, boasting an 11-5 record and ranking 6th in the Mountain West. However, they’re coming off a disappointing 68-76 loss to UNLV. Here’s how they’ve performed:

• Record: 11-5 overall, 2-1 on the road

• Against the Spread (ATS): 7-8

• Over/Under: 6-8-1

• Offense: Averaging 72 points per game (250th nationally)

• Defense: Allowing 62.7 points per game (13th nationally)

• Shooting:

• Field Goal Percentage: 43.4% (260th)

• Three-Point Percentage: 35.1% (113th)

• Free-Throw Percentage: 67.7% (295th)

• Rebounds per Game: 37.6 (98th)

Key Players: Myles Bird leads the team with 14.7 points and 4.4 rebounds per game, while Nick Boyd adds 12.6 points and 4.2 rebounds. Following this matchup, San Diego State will face Nevada.

Betting Trends

Air Force Falcons Trends

• Air Force has lost eight consecutive games, significantly impacting their momentum.

• The Falcons are 7-11 ATS, struggling to meet expectations.

• At home, Air Force has a 2-7 record, with fans seeking a turnaround.

San Diego State Aztecs Trends

• San Diego State has won 7 of their last 10 games, showing consistent form.

• The Aztecs excel in night games, winning their last 11 such matchups against Air Force.

• San Diego State has covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 meetings with Air Force.

Head-to-Head Trends

• San Diego State has dominated this matchup, winning all 10 previous encounters.

• In their last meeting, the Aztecs secured a 67-38 victory at home, covering the spread.

• The total has gone under in 3 of their last 4 games against each other.

Why Each Team Could Win

Why Air Force Falcons Could Win

• Air Force has won the first half in 4 of their last 5 games at Clune Arena against non-ranked opponents.

• The Falcons’ home-court advantage could play a pivotal role.

Why San Diego State Aztecs Could Win

• San Diego State’s superior defense ranks 13th nationally, significantly limiting opponents.

• The Aztecs’ recent success in night games, especially against Air Force, is a strong indicator of dominance.

• Air Force’s poor free-throw shooting (362nd nationally) could hinder their ability to close out tight games.

Prediction and Betting Recommendation

In this San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force Falcons matchup, San Diego State enters as heavy favorites with a -14.5 spread. The Aztecs’ balanced scoring and elite defense make them a formidable opponent, while Air Force’s struggles both offensively and defensively suggest an uphill battle.

Prediction: San Diego State Aztecs win and cover the -14.5 spread. Expect the total to go under, given the Aztecs’ defensive prowess and Air Force’s offensive limitations.

Insights

What are the key stats favoring San Diego State?

San Diego State’s defensive ranking of 13th nationally and their ability to limit opponents to 62.7 points per game stand out. Additionally, they excel in rebounding, averaging 37.6 boards per game compared to Air Force’s 29.2.

Can Air Force pull off an upset?

While unlikely, Air Force could capitalize on a strong first-half performance and home-court advantage. Improved free-throw shooting and limiting turnovers will be essential.

How have recent trends shaped betting outcomes?

San Diego State’s dominance in this series, coupled with their superior form and defensive metrics, makes them the preferred betting option.

By leveraging these insights, bettors can approach this game with a clear strategy to maximize potential returns. For a detailed breakdown of betting odds and further analysis, stay tuned to our updates.