San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers – Breakdown and Prediction

October 11, 2024

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers: ALDS – Game 5

The Los Angeles Dodgers are hosting the San Diego Padres today at Dodgers Stadium in the decisive game of the ALDS.

The Padres missed their chance

The San Diego Padres finished the regular season second in the NL West with a 93-69 record including 48-33 on the road. They swept the Atlanta Braves 2-0 in the Wild Card series. The Padres have a 3.83 ERA, a .235 batting average, a .302 on-base percentage, and 1.22 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Manny Machado leads the team with 163 hits and 29 home runs while Jurickson Profar is on top with 94 runs.

The Dodgers are still the team to beat

The Los Angeles Dodgers finished the regular season on top of the NL West with a league-best 98-64 record, including 52-29 at home. The Dodgers have a 3.95 ERA, a .233 batting average, a .304 on-base percentage, and 1.23 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Shohei Ohtani is the best player on the team with 197 hits, 134 runs, and 54 home runs.

Betting Trends

The Dodgers are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games overall, 11-4 SU in their last 15 games against teams from the NL and 8-3 SU in their last 11 games against teams from the NL West. Los Angeles has played over the total run line in 6 of their last 8 games overall, 4 of their last 5 against the Padres and 8 of their last 11 home games. The Padres are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games overall, 10-5 SU in their last 15 games against teams from the NL and 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played in October. San Diego has played over the total run line in 4 of their last 5 games overall, 4 of their last 6 road games and 8 of their last 12 games when visiting the Dodgers.

Prediction and Conclusion

The San Diego Padres led twice in this series and had a chance to close it out and advance, but beating the Dodgers is not that easy. The team from LA refused to go down and, with an amazing performance, forced the decisive game. The Dodgers won 8-0 in Game 4 in San Diego, absolutely dominating the game. The Dodgers will start Yoshinobu Yamamoto today, who is 7-2 for the season with a 3.00 ERA, 105 IP, and 1.11 WHIP. The Padres will have a more experienced pitcher on the mound. Veteran Yu Darvish is 7-3 for the season with a 3.31 ERA, 78 K, 81.2 IP, and 1.07 WHIP. The momentum has definitely changed in the Dodgers favor, but seeing them go with Yamamoto is pretty surprising. Darvish is the better pitcher between the two, so we go with the Padres to cover the +1.5-run spread.