Rafael Nadal vs Cameron Norrie – Breakdown and Prediction

July 18, 2024

Rafael Nadal vs Cameron Norrie: ATP Bastad – round of 16

The 22-time Grand Slam champion Rafael Nadal will take on Cameron Norrie in the round of 16 of the ATP Bastad.

Rafael Nadal Profile

Former world No. 1 Rafael Nadal is currently 261st in the ATP rankings. The Spaniard is 8-6 for the season and 6-4 on clay.

Nadal is coming off a 6-3, 6-4 win over Leo Borg in the opening round of the tournament. That was Nadal’s first match after the loss to Alexander Zverev in the first round of the French Open.

Nadal’s best result of the season was reaching the round of 16 in Madrid, where he lost to Jiri Lehecka.

This is his first appearance in Bastad after 2005, when he won the title, beating Tomas Berdych in the final.

Cameron Norrie Profile

Cameron Norrie is currently 42nd in the rankings and his career high was No. 8. The Brit is 18-15 for the season and 8-7 on clay.

He is coming off a 7-6, 6-4 win over Jozef Kovalik in the opening round of the tournament. Previously, Norrie lost 6-4, 6-4, 7-6 to Alexander Zverev in the third round of Wimbledon.

His best result of the season was the semifinal in Rio de Janeiro where he lost to Mariano Navone.

This will be his first appearance in Bastad.

Head-to-Head Nadal leads 4-1

Norrie vs Nadal 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 (2023 United Cup)
Nadal vs Norrie 6-4, 6-4 (2022 ATP Acapulco, final)
Nadal vs Norrie 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 (2021 French Open, third round)
Nadal vs Norrie 6-1, 6-4 (2021 ATP Barcelona, quarterfinal)
Nadal vs Norrie 7-5, 6-2, 7-5 (2021 Australian Open, third round)

Prediction and Conclusion

Rafael Nadal had a solid start to the tournament, but Norrie will be a much bigger challenge than Borg. Nadal played just enough to win that match, but it was obvious that he is in competitive form, and this may be the tournament in which he wins his first title since 2022. Norrie won the last match against Nadal but has not won a set on clay against the Spaniard. Regardless of the form Nadal is in, it is a major success for every player to beat him on clay, so this is the chance for Norrie. It will be a tough fight with both players having momentum at certain stages of the match, and we can expect a long one that will go over 22.5 games in total.