Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers – Breakdown and Prediction

July 9, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers: A NL Central matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Milwaukee Brewers are starting a three-game series tonight at American Family Field.

Can the Pirates come closer to the top of the division?

The Pittsburgh Pirates are third in the NL Central with a 43-47 record including 21-23 on the road. They are coming off an 8-2 win over the New York Mets splitting that series at two wins apiece. The Pirates have a 3.91 ERA, a .244 batting average, a .313 on-base percentage, and 1.28 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Bryan Reynolds leads the team with 101 hits and 16 home runs while Andrew McCutchen is on top with 46 runs.

The Brewers have a promising season

The Milwaukee Brewers are on top of the NL Central with a 53-38 record, including 27-13 at home. After losing three consecutive games, the Brewers won 9-2 in the last one against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Brewers have a 3.76 ERA, a .236 batting average, a .310 on-base percentage, and 1.26 walks plus hits per inning pitched. William Contreras is the best player on the team with 105 hits, 61 runs and 10 home runs so far in the season.

Betting Trends

The Brewers are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games overall and 8-3 SU in their last 11 home games against the Pirates. Milwaukee has played under the total run line in 4 of their last 6 games overall, 13 of the last 20 games played in July and in 4 of their last 6 games played on Tuesday. The Pirates are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against the Brewers and 4-2 SU in their last 6 games played on Tuesday. Pittsburgh has played under the total run line in 13 of their last 20 games overall, 4 of their last 5 games on the road and 10 of their last 14 games against teams from the NL Central.

Prediction and Conclusion

The Milwaukee Brewers have the third-best record in the National League and the second-best home record. They are coming back home after a tough road trip on the West Coast and will have to increase their level of play now that they are home. The Pirates are 9.5 games behind the Brewers, and this is the series when they can cut that deficit and have a legit reason to hope for the postseason. The Pirates will start Martin Perez, who is 1-4 for the season with a 4.85 ERA, 52 K, 68.2 IP, and 1.56 WHIP. The Brewers will have a much better pitcher on the mound as Tobias Myers is 5-3 for the season with a 3.52 ERA, 56 K, 64 IP, and 1.19 WHIP. The Brewery won four of the last five against the Pirats, and that trend will continue tonight with another win.