Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx – Breakdown and Prediction

September 25, 2024

Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx: Can the Mercury take the series to the desert?

The Minnesota Lynx are hosting the Phoenix Mercury at Target Center on Wednesday.

The Mercury are capable of winning on the road

The Phoenix Mercury finished the regular season fourth in the Eastern Conference with a 19-21 record, including 9-11 on the road. They were second in the league with 4.7 blocks per game and sixth with 8.7 three-pointers made per game. Kahleah Copper leads the team, averaging 21.1 points, and Brittney Griner adds 17.8.

Is this the season for the Lynx?

The Minnesota Lynx finished the regular season with the best record in the Western Conference of 30 wins and 10 losses and were tied for the best home rcord in the league of 16 wins and 4 losses. The Lynx led the league allowing 41.3% shooting from the field and were second allowing 76.4 points per game. Napheesa Collier leads the Lynx with 20.4 points and 9.7 rebounds per game.

Betting Trends

The Lynx have compiled a 21-6 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite. Minnesota is 7-1 when it has played as a moneyline favorite of -450 or shorter. Minnesota’s 41 games this season have gone over this contest’s total of 160.5 points 19 times. The average point total in Lynx contests this year is 161.7, 1.2 more than this matchup’s over/under. This season, the Mercury have won five out of the 22 games as underdog. Phoenix has won one of its five games when it is the underdog by at least +340 on the moneyline. The Mercury have played 27 games this season that ended with a combined score over 160.5 points. The average over/under for Phoenix’s contests this season is 165.9, 5.4 more points than this game’s point total.

Prediction and Conclusion

The opening game of the series showed what the WNBA playoffs are all about. The Minnesota Lynx were pushed to the limit and took a 1-0 series lead with a 102-95 win. Napheesa Collier scored a playoff career-high 38 points, and the Lynx blew a 23-point lead before rallying late to secure the win. Natasha Cloud had 33 points, matching her postseason high, and 10 assists to lead Phoenix. We expect nothing short in Game 2, and with the total point line being set at just 160.5, we go with over in this one.