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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets: In-Depth Analysis and Betting Insights

The New Orleans Pelicans are set to face the Denver Nuggets on Monday, February 3, 2025, at Ball Arena in Denver. This matchup presents a compelling narrative, with both teams aiming to assert their dominance in the Western Conference.

Team Overviews

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have faced challenges recently, with consecutive losses to the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks. Looking ahead, they are scheduled to play against the Sacramento Kings, Oklahoma City Thunder, and a rematch with the Mavericks. Currently, the Pelicans are averaging 109.8 points per game, shooting at 44.6% from the field, while allowing opponents to score 118.1 points on 48.3% shooting.

Key Players:

• Zion Williamson: Leading the team with an average of 23.6 points and 8.2 rebounds per game.

• Brandon Ingram: Contributing 22.2 points and 5.6 rebounds per game.

• Trey Murphy III: Adding depth with double-digit scoring figures.

• CJ McCollum: Providing experience and leadership, along with 3.6 rebounds per game.

The team is shooting 34.6% from beyond the arc and 76.4% from the free-throw line. Defensively, they are allowing opponents to shoot 36.6% from three-point range and are averaging 43 rebounds per game.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are coming off victories against the Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Hornets. Their upcoming games include matchups against the Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, and Portland Trail Blazers. The team boasts an impressive average of 120.5 points per game, with a shooting percentage of 50.5%, while conceding 116.5 points on 46.7% shooting from opponents.

Key Players:

• Nikola Jokic: Averaging a near triple-double with 29.6 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game.

• Jamal Murray: Adding 20.4 points and 4 rebounds per game.

• Michael Porter Jr.: Serving as a reliable third scoring option.

• Christian Braun: Contributing significantly on the boards with 4.8 rebounds per game.

The Nuggets are shooting 37.8% from three-point range and 77.3% from the free-throw line. Defensively, they allow a 36% shooting percentage from deep and secure 45.4 rebounds per game.

Betting Insights

Why the Denver Nuggets Could Win

• Home Court Advantage: The Nuggets have dominated at Ball Arena, winning 21 of their last 22 home games against teams with losing records.

• Pelicans’ Road Struggles: New Orleans has lost their last nine road games against Western Conference opponents.

• Historical Performance: The home team has covered the spread in nine of the last ten meetings between these two teams.

• Rest Advantage: The Pelicans have failed to cover the spread in their last four games when playing with a rest advantage.

Why the New Orleans Pelicans Could Win

• Nuggets’ Inconsistency as Favorites: Denver has lost three of their last five games as favorites against Southwest Division opponents following a win.

• Pelicans’ Resilience as Underdogs: New Orleans has won 16 of their last 32 games as road underdogs against Western Conference opponents following a loss.

• Against the Spread Trends: The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in their last five home games against Southwest Division opponents, while the Pelicans have covered in three of their last four games as underdogs following a home loss.

Matchup and League Facts

• Field Goal Efficiency: The Nuggets lead the league in field goal percentage this season at 50.5%.

• Three-Point Attempts: Denver ranks last in the league for three-point field goal attempts per game, averaging 30.9.

• Rebounding Challenges: The Pelicans rank 28th in the league for opponent rebounds per game, allowing 46.3.

• Defensive Field Goal Percentage: New Orleans also ranks 28th in opponent field goal percentage, with opponents shooting 48.3% against them.

Injury Report

• Denver Nuggets: DaRon Holmes II, Peyton Watson, Vlatko Cancar, and Russell Westbrook are listed as out.

• New Orleans Pelicans: Brandon Ingram, Dejounte Murray, and Herbert Jones are sidelined.

Prediction

The Pelicans have been plagued by injuries, with Dejounte Murray recently ruled out for the season. Their road record stands at 4-19, and playing in Denver presents a formidable challenge. While a blowout in favor of the Nuggets is possible, Denver has struggled to cover the spread this season, holding a 23-25-1 ATS record. They have failed to cover in their last five games and recently suffered a loss as significant favorites to the Chicago Bulls. Additionally, the absence of Russell Westbrook, who has been an energy catalyst, could impact their performance.