Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets – Breakdown and Prediction

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets: Both teams are among the top favorites

The Denver Nuggets are hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder today at Ball Arena in the home opener of the 2024-25 season.

Can the Thunder make another step forward?

The Oklahoma City Thunder had a great season last year finishing on top of the Western Conference in the regular season before losing to the Dallas Mavericks in the second playoff round. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a great season finishing second in the MVP voting. The Thunder did not make any significant changes in the offseason, keeping the key pieces from last year. They selected Nikola Topic with the 12th pick but the Serbian point guard will miss the entire season with a knee injury.

Can the Nuggets get back to the finals?

The Denver Nuggets could not defend the championship last year after losing to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second playoff round. In the offseason, they resigned Aaron Gordon and brought in veteran Russell Westbrook. Many wonder why they need the former MVP since he is way past his prime, but let’s believe that Mike Malone knows what he is doing. The three-time MVP Nikola Jokic is still the main man in the Mile High City and as long as he plays the way he does, the Nuggets will be a real contender in the West.

Betting Trends

The Nuggets are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games overall, 11-5 SU in their last 16 games against teams from the Northwest Division, and 12-3 SU in their last 15 games played on Thursday. They are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games overall, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games against the Thunder, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites. Denver has played under the total point line in 8 of their last 12 games overall, 5 of their last 6 games against OKC, and 6 of their last 7 home games. The Thunder are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games overall, 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Denver, and 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played in October. They are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games against Denver, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against teams from the Northwest Division. OKC has played under the total point line in 6 of their last 8 games overall and 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

Prediction and Conclusion

Just like last season, the Thunder and the Nuggets will be among the top teams in the league. The Thunder are one year older and more experienced to be more competitive in the playoffs. The Nuggets have everything they need and added Russell Westbrook to the roster. The former MVP will play his first game in the Nuggets jersey against his former team. Denver is a really tough place to win for any team in the league, but Thunder can do that in the opener. Since the Nuggets are the favorites, we will go with the Thunder to cover the +2.5-point spread.