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Nicolas Jarry vs Alexander Zverev – Breakdown and Prediction

Fabrizio Corradetti / LiveMedia

Nicolas Jarry vs Alexander Zverev: ATP Rome – Final

The former ATP Rome champion Alexander Zverev will take on the first time Masters finalist Nicolas Jarry on Sunday.


Nicolas Jarry Profile

Nicolas Jarry is 24th in the ATP rankings, while his career high is No. 18 in the world. The Chilean is 16-11 for the season and 9-6 on clay.

He is coming off a 6-3, 6-7, 6-3 semifinal win over Tommy Paul. Previously, he defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinal, qualifier Alexandre Muller in the round of 16 and two home players, Stefano Napolitano and Matteo Arnaldi.

Jarry came to Rome after losing the first matches in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid.

His best result this season was the final in Buenos Aires, where he lost to Facundo Diaz Acosta.

This is his third appearance in Rome and the first time he has moved past the first round.


Alexander Zverev Profile

Alexander Zverev is fifth in the ATP rankings, while his career high was No. 2 in the world. The German is 27-9 for the season and 9-3 on clay.

Zverev is coming off a 1-6, 7-6, 6-2 semifinal win over Alejandro Tabilo. Earlier this week, he defeated Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinal after previously going past Nono Borges, Luca Dardieri, and Alexander Vukic, all in straight sets.

Last week in Madrid, Zverev lost in the round of 16 against Francisco Cerundolo.

His best result of the season was the semifinal at the Australian Open, where he lost to Daniil Medvedev in five sets. He reached the same stage in Los Cabos and Miami.

This is Zverev’s eighth appearance in Rome, and he won the title in 2017.


Head-to-Head Zverev leads 4-2

  • Zverev vs Jarry 6-1, 6-7, 6-3 (2023 ATP Beijing, quarterfinal)
  • Zverev vs Jarry 7-5, 6-3 (2023 ATP Halle, quarterfinal)
  • Jarry vs Zverev 7-6, 6-3 (2023 ATP Geneve, semifinal)
  • Zverev vs Jarry 6-4, 6-2 (2021 ATP Hamburg, first round)
  • Zverev vs Jarry 6-3, 3-6, 7-6 (2019 ATP Geneve, final)
  • Jarry vs Zverev 3-6, 7-5, 7-6 (2019 ATP Barcelona, second round)


Prediction and Conclusion

Nicolas Jarry is having probably the best week of his career, which resulted in his first ever final at the Masters level. Zverev is a former champion in Rome, and we expected to see him going this deep in the tournament. The German is seen as a major favorite in this match, but Jarry has proved that he can beat him in the past. Jarry can hold his serve and be aggressive at the return, so we are going with over 22.5 games in total.

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