Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros – Breakdown and Prediction

July 11, 2024

Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros: Can the Astros sweep the series?

The Miami Marlins and the Houston Astros will close out their series at Minute Maid Park on Thursday.

The Marlins have the worst record in the NL

The Miami Marlins are at the bottom of the NL East with a 32-60 record, including 14-29 on the road. After winning back-to-back games against the Chicago White Sox, the Marlins lost the last two against the Astros. Miami has a 4.53 ERA, a .251 batting average, a .328 on-base percentage, and 1.36 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Bryan De La Cruz is the best player on the team, with 87 hits, 38 runs, and 15 home runs for the season.

The Astros are picking up their form

The Houston Astros are second in the AL West with a 48-44 record, including 26-19 at home. They have won 5 of their last 7 games and are coming off a 9-1 win last night against the Marlins. The Astros have a 4.13 ERA, a .238 batting average, a .320 on-base percentage, and 1.31 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Jose Altuve leads the team with 114 hits and 55 runs for the season, and Yordan Alvarez is on top with 19 home runs.

Betting Trends

The Astros are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games overall, 8-0 SU in their last 8 home games and 5-10 SU in their last 15 home games against Miami. Houston has played over the total run line in 8 of their last 12 games overall, 4 of their last 6 games against Miami, 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the NL and 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the NL East. The Marlins are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games overall, 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road and 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against Houston. Miami has played over the total run line in 6 of their last 9 games overall, 5 of their last 6 games played on Thursday and 5 of their last 7 games as underdogs.

Prediction and Conclusion

The Houston Astros are playing very well lately, winning seven of their last 10 games. They are on an eight-game winning streak at home, but if there is one team that has caused them problems in Houston, it is Miami, which has won 10 of the last 15 games at Minute Maid Park. The Marlins will try to avoid being swept in the series tonight, going with Roddery Munoz, who is 1-3 for the season with a 5.48 ERA, 40 K, 44.1 IP, and 1.47 WHIP. The Astros will give a chance to rookie Jake Bloss, who will make his second appearance in the MLB. In his first game, he had a 4.91 ERA, 2 K, 3.2 IP, and 1.91 WHIP. Regardless of that, the Astros are the favorites in this game, but the Marlins will definitely push hard to use this opportunity, so we go with Miami to cover the +1.5-run line.