Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka – Breakdown and Prediction

August 19, 2024

Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka: WTA Cincinnati – Final

American Jessica Pegula will face off Aryna Sabalenka in the final of the WTA Cincinnati.

Jessica Pegula Profile

Jessica Pegula is currently sixth in the WTA rankings while her career high was No. 3. The American is 30-10 for the season and 18-5 on hard surface.

Pegula is coming off a 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 win over Paola Badosa in the semifinal. Previously in the tournament, Pegula defeated Leylah Fernandez, Taylor Townsend and Karolina Muchova.

Pegula won the titles in Toronto and Berlin this season, and this is her first final in Cincinnati.

Aryna Sabalenka Profile

Former world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is currently third in the WTA rankings. The player from Belarus is 38-11 for the season and 22-6 on hard surface.

Sabalenka is coming off a 6-3, 6-3 semifinal win over the world No. 1 Iga Swiatek. Earlier this week, she defeated Ludmila Samsonova, Elena Svitolina and Elisabetta Cocciaretto.

Sabalenka won only one title this season and that was the Australian Open. She reached her first Cincinnati final, after losing in three semifinals earlier in her career.

Head-to-Head Sabalenka leads 4-2

Pegula vs Sabalenka 6-4, 6-3 (2023 WTA Masters Cup)
Sabalenka vs Pegula 6-3, 7-5 (2022 WTA Masters Cup)
Sabalenka vs Pegula 6-1, 6-4 (2022 WTA Rome, round of 16)
Sabalenka vs Pegula 6-1, 6-2 (2021 WTA Madrid, round of 16)
Sabalenka vs Pegula 6-3, 6-1 (2020 French Open, first round)
Pegula vs Sabalenka 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 (2020 WTA Cincinnati, round of 16)

Prediction and Conclusion

Both players are on top of their game, and this should be an excellent match. Pegula recently won the title in Toronto, proving that she is back at the top of her form, while Sabalenka just dominated world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the semifinals. These two players know each other very well since this will be their seventh match. In the last five matches, Sabalenka won three times and Pegula twice, and none of those matches went to the decisive set. Given their current form and the stakes in Cincinnati, we expect a tough battle and go with over 2.5 sets in total.