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Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev – Breakdown and Prediction

GEPA pictures/ Walter Luger – Photo by Icon sport

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev: Australian Open – Final

Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev will face each other in the Australian Open final on Saturday.

Jannik Sinner Profile

Jannik Sinner is coming off an impressive 6-1, 6-2, 6-7, 6-3 win over Novak Djokovic handing him the first loss at the Australian Open since 2018. The world No. 4 was so dominant in the first two sets, allowing the 10-time Australian Open champion only three games. Djokovic saved a match point and won the third set in a tiebreak. Sinner made an early break in the fourth and made it to his first-ever Grand Slam final.

That was Sinner’s first lost set this year in Melbourne. Previously, he defeated Andrey Rublev, Karen Khachanov, Sebastian Baez, Jesper de Jong, and Botic Van Den Zandschulp, all in straight sets.

Daniil Medvedev Profile

Daniil Medvedev had a much more difficult road to his third final in Melbourne. The world No. 3 is coming off a five-set win over Alexander Zverev. The German won the first two sets, but Medvedev was able to turn things around for a final 5-7, 3-6, 7-6, 7-6, 6-3 win. That was the second time in the tournament for Medvedev to come back from the dead after he did the same against Emil Ruusuvuori in the second round. Nuno Borges won a set in the round of 16, Felix Auger-Aliassime was beaten in straight sets, and Terence Atmane retired in the opening round.

Head-to-Head – Medvedev leads 6-3

  • 2023 ATP Masters Cup semifinal – Sinner vs Medvedev 6-3, 6-7, 6-1
  • 2023 Vienna final – Sinner vs Medvedev 7-6, 4-6. 6-3
  • 2023 Beijing final – Sinner vs Medvedev 7-6, 7-6
  • 2023 Miami final – Medvedev vs Sinner 7-5, 6-3
  • 2023 Rotterdam final – Medvedev vs Sinner 5-7, 6-2, 6-2
  • 2022 Vienna quarterfinal – Medvedev vs Sinner 6-4, 6-2
  • 2021 ATP Masters Cup group stage – Medvedev vs Sinner 6-0, 6-7, 7-6
  • 2021 Marseille quarterfinal – Medvedev vs Sinner 6-2, 6-4
  • 2020 Marseille round of 16 – Medvedev vs Sinner 1-6, 6-1, 6-2

Prediction and Conclusion

Everything is set for an epic Australian Open final, with Sinner and Medvedev going against each other for the tenth time. The Russian leads the head-to-head record by 6-3, but Sinner is the one to win the last three matches. The Italian has been so dominant in the last couple of weeks that even Djokovic had no chance against him. Medvedev knows the feeling of winning a Grand Slam, while Sinner will play in his first major final. Medvedev has been in that situation twice before in Melbourne, in 2021 and 2022, losing to Djokovic and Nadal. This is a huge opportunity for both players to make a big step forward in their careers. Neither of them will go down easily, so the safest bet for this one is over 38.5 games in total.

 

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