Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans – Breakdown and Prediction

September 29, 2024

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans: A AFC South matchup

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be looking for their first win of their season when they visit the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium.

The Jags are off to a difficult start

The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of only three teams in the league who are winless after the first three weeks of the season. They were pretty close in the first two losing 20-17 to the state rival Miami Dolphins and 18-13 to the Cleveland Browns but stood no chance last week in Buffalo. The Bills had full control of the game and won 47-10. Trevor Lawrence finished 21 of 38 for 178 yards with a touchdown and interception.

Can the Texans bounce back?

The Houston Texans are 2-1 going into Week 4 of the season. They started well by beating the Indianapolis Colts 29-27 and the Chicago Bears 19-13 but failed 34-7 to the Minnesota Vikings in the last one. CJ Stroud went 20 for 31 for 215 yards. This was the first time in 10 starts he’d been picked off. Stefon Diggs led the Texans with 10 catches for 94 yards.

Betting Trends

The Texans are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games overall, 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games, 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against teams from the AFC. They are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 game splayed in September and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4. Houston has played under the total point line in 8 of their last 12 games against the Jaguars, 6 of their last 7 home games against them and 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the AFC South. The Jaguars are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games overall, 2-10 SU in their last 12 games against Houston, 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road and 0-7 SU in their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. They are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall, 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games against Houston and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in September. Jacksonville has played under the total point line in 5 of their last 7 games overall and has gone over in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the AFC South.

Prediction and Conclusion

Both teams are coming off huge losses last week and really need to bounce back as the season progresses. It will be interesting to see how CJ Stroud and Trevor Lawrence will perform under pressure, as both need to step up and get their teams out of the hole. Stroud threw his first two interceptions of the season last week, which may impact his confidence. Lawrence has lost his last eight starts and has not led his team to a win since last November, when the Jags won 24-21 in Houston. The Jaguars have to avoid a 0-4 start of the season, as only one team in NFL history has made it to the playoffs after such a start. The Jags will leave everything they have on the field, so we go with them to cover the +5.5-point spread.