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Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka – Breakdown and Prediction

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Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka: WTA Madrid – Final

For the second year in a row, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will go against each other in the WTA Madrid final.


Iga Swiatek Profile

Iga Swiatek is at the top of the WTA rankings. The Polish are 31-4 for the season and 7-1 on clay.

She is coming off a 6-1, 6-3 semifinal win over Madison Keys. Previously in the tournament, she defeated Beatriz Haddad Maia, Soribbes Tormo, Sorana Cirstea, and Xiyu Wang.

Swiatek has won two titles already this season, in Indian Wells and Doha. She lost in the semifinals in Stuttgart and Dubai.


Aryna Sabalenka Profile

The defending WTA champion, Aryna Sabalenka, is currently second in the WTA rankings. The Belarussian is 20-5 for the season and 6-1 on clay courts.

She is coming off a 1-6, 7-5, 7-6 semifinal win over Elyna Rybakina. Previously in the tournament, Sabalenka defeated Mira Andreeva, Diane Collins, Robin Montgomery, and Marga Linette.

Sabalenka won the Australian Open this season, defeating Qinwen Zheng in the final. In the first week of the year, she won the title in Brisbane against Rybakina in the final.


Head-to-Head – Swiatek leads 7-3

  • Sabalenka vs Swiatek 6-4 (2023 World Tennis League)
  • Swiatek vs Sabalenka 6-3, 6-2 (2023 WTA Masters Cup, semifinal)
  • Sabalenka vs Swiatek 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 (2023 WTA Madrid, final)
  • Swiatek vs Sabalenka 6-3, 6-4 (2023 WTA Stuttgart, final)
  • Swiatek vs Sabalenka 6-1, 6-3 (2022 World Tennis League)
  • Sabalenka vs Swiatek 6-2, 2-6, 6-1 (2022 WTA Masters Cup, semifinal)
  • Swiatek vs Sabalenka 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 (2022 US Open, semifinal)
  • Swiatek vs Sabalenka 6-2, 6-2 (2022 WTA Stuttgart, final)
  • Swiatek vs Sabalenka 6-2, 6-3 (2022 WTA Doha, quarterfinal)
  • Swiatek vs Sabalenka 2-6, 6-2, 7-5 (2021 WTA Masters Cup)


Prediction and Conclusion

There is no better final than the one between the top two players in the WTA rankings. Swiatek and Sabalenka have built a rivalry in recent years. Last year in Madrid, Sabalenka defeated Swiatek in three sets, which is one of her three wins against Swiatek in the previous ten matches. This year, Sabalenka made it to the finals by playing three sets in all but one match, while Swiatek was much more confident. Given their current form, Swiatek is on a higher level, and she will prove why she is the No. 1 player in the world with a straight-set win.

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