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Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul – Breakdown and Prediction

Alfredo Falcone/LaPresse – Photo by Icon Sport

Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul: ATP Rome – quarterfinal

Both players have a solid week at the ATP Rome and will have a unique chance to reach the semifinal on a Masters tournament on clay.


Hubert Hurkacz Profile

Hubert Hurkacz is currently ninth in the ATP rnakings one spot lower than his career high. The Polish is 26-10 for the season and 11-2 on clay courts.

Hurkacz is coming off 5-7, 7-6, 6-4 win against Sebastian Baez in the round of 16. Previously in the tournament, he defeated Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Rafael Nadal.

Earlier this season, Hurkacz won his first career title on clay in Estoril, defeating Pedro Martinez 6-4, 6-3 in the final. That was his eighth career title and the first one after Shanghai last year.

Besides the trophy in Estoril, Hurkacz made it to the semifinals in Marseille and the quarterfinals at the Australian Open and in Dubai.

This is his sixth appearance in Rome and the first quarterfinal.


Tommy Paul Profile

Tommy Paul is currently 16th in the ATP rankings, four spots lower than his career high. The American is 18-7 for the season and 4-1 on clay surfaces.

He is coming off a 6-1, 6-4 win over Daniil Medvedev in the round of 16. Previously in the tournament, he defeated Daniel Koepfer and Aslan Karatsev.

Last week, in Madrid, Paul lost to Francisco Cerundolo in the third round.

His best result of the season is the title in Dallas, where he defeated Marcos Giron in the final, and the final in Delray Beach, where he lost to Taylor Fritz.

This is his fifth appearance in Rome and the first time to go this deep.


Head-to-Head Hurkacz leads 3-1

  • Paul vs Hurkacz 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 (2023 ATP Indian Wells, third round)
  • Hurkacz vs Paul 7-5, 7-6 (2021 Paris Masters, second round)
  • Hurkacz vs Paul 4-1, 0-4, 4-1 (2020 UTR Pro Match Series)
  • Hurkacz vs Paul 4-2, 4-0 (2020 UTR Pro Match Series)


Prediction and Conclusion

Tommy Paul is having an excellent tournament in Madrid, winning all three matches in straight sets. Unlike him, Hurkacz had a huge challenge in the previous round as he found himself in a set and a breakdown against Sebastian Baez. He managed to turn things around in the second-set tiebreak and then close the match in his favor. Both players are in their prime, looking for the best career rankings, and this is the tournament that may give them what they want. Neither of them prefers to play on clay, and details will make the difference today. This will be a long battle that will take the match over 22.5 games in total.

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