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Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Andrey Rublev – Breakdown and Prediction

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Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Andrey Rublev: ATP Madrid – Final

Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime are hoping ot win their first Masters 1000 title when they face each other at the ATP Madrid final.


Felix Auger-Aliassime Profile

Felix Auger-Aliassime has fallen to 35th place in the ATP rankings, and not that long ago, he was No. 6 in the world. The Canadian is 16-10 for the season and 8-2 on clay courts.

Auger-Aliassime had a shortcut to the finals as he played only a set in the semifinals after jiri Lehecka retired with injury. He didn’t even take the court in the quarterfinal as Jannik Sinner withdrew from the tournament. Previously Auger-Aliassime defeated Casper Ruud, Jakub Mensik, Adrian Mannarino, and Yoshihito Nishioka.

Last week in Munich, Auger-Aliassime lost in the quarterfinal to Jan-Lennard Struff.

His best result this season was the semifinal in Montpellier, where he lost to Alexander Bublik.

This is his first final in his fifth appearance in Madrid.

Andrey Rublev Profile

Andrey Rublev is eighth in the ATP rankings, three spots lower than his career high. The Russian is 20-8 for the season and 5-2 on clay courts.

He is coming off a 6-4, 6-3 semifinal win over Taylor Fritz. In the quarterfinal, he defeated the two-time Madrid champion Carlos Alcaraz by 4-6, 6-3, 6-2. Previously in the tournament, Rublev defeated Tallon Griekspoor, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Facundo Bagnis.

Those were his first wins after losing in the opening round of three consecutive tournaments in Barcelona, Monte Carlo, and Miami.

Rublev won the title in Hong Kong in the first week of the season and made it to the semifinals in Dubai, where he was disqualified in the match against Alexander Bublik.

This is Rublev’s fourth appearance in Madrid and he has made it to the final for the first time.


Head-to-Head – Rublev leads 5-1

  • Rublev vs Auger-Aliassime 3-6, 7-6, 7-5 (2024 ATP Rotterdam, round of 16)
  • Rublev vs Auger-Aliassime 7-6, 7-6 (2023 Boddies Tennis Challenge)
  • Rublev vs Auger-Aliassime 7-5, 7-6 (2022 ATP Marseille, final)
  • Auger-Aliassime vs Rublev 6-7, 6-4, 6-2 (2022 ATP Rotterdam, semifinal)
  • Rublev vs Auger-Aliassime 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 (2020 ATP Adelaide, semifinal)
  • Rublev vs Auger-Aliassime 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 (2018 ATP Umag, round of 16)


Prediction and Conclusion

Felix Auger-Aliassime is still looking for his best form, and he had a lot of luck making it to the final in Madrid. He basically played only one set in the quarterfinal and the semifinal, while Rublev had to face Alcaraz and Fritz. That does not necessarily give the Canadian any advantage since his confidence is still not at the level demanded, while Rublev’s is as high as he gets. The Russian has won five of the previous six matches against Auger-Aliassime and has had way better results on clay than the Canadian. There are two good reasons to go with Rublev in the ATP Madrid final.

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