Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins – Breakdown and Prediction

July 2, 2024

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins: A AL Central matchup

The Detroit Tigers are slight favorites when they visit the Minnesota Twins at Target Field on Tuesday.

Another disappointing season for the Tigers

The Detroit Tigers are fourth in the AL Central with a 38-46 record, including 19-24 at home. After losing four consecutive games, the Tigers won 7-6 to avoid being swept in the series against the Los Angeles Angels. The Tigers have a 3.94 ERA, a .240 batting average, a .300 on-base percentage, and 1.22 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Riley Greene is the best player on the team with 77 hits, 50 runs, and 15 home runs.

The Twins have a promising season

The Minnesota Twins are second in the AL Central with a 47-37 record and are 23-16 at home. They have won 4 of the last 5 games and are coming off a 5-3 win over the Seattle Mariners. Minnesota has a 4.09 ERA, a .233 batting average, a .296 on-base percentage, and 1.19 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Willi Castro leads the Twins with 81 hits and 51 runs so far in the season while Ryan Jeffers is on top with 13 home runs.

Betting Trends

The Twins ae 4-1 SU in their last 5 games overall, 6-2 SU in their last 8 home games and 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when hosting Detroit. Minnesota has played over the total run line in 7 of their last 10 games overall, in 9 of their last 12 games played on Tuesday and 4 of their last 5 games played in July. The Tigers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games overall, 8-4 SU in their last 12 games against the Twins, and 1-7 SU in their last 8 games on the road. Detroit has played under the total run line in 10 of their last 14 games overall and has gone over in 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the AL Central and in 4 of their last 6 games played in July.

Prediction and Conclusion

Both the Tigers and the Twins are coming off a win, but only Minnesota has a reason to be satrisfied with their record this season. They are ten wins over .500 and still have a shot to reach the Guardians at the top of the division. The Tigers are 8 games behind even record and 15 games behind Cleveland, which means that they will need a miracle to save the season. However, given the odds, Detroit is a slight favorite going into this one since they will start Tarik Skubal, who is 9-3 for the season with a 2.32 ERA, 112 K, 97 IP, and 0.94 WHIP. The Twins also have a pitcher with a winning record tonight, as Simeon Woods Richardson is 3-1 for the season with a 3.41 ERA, 56 K, 66 IP, and 1.14 WHIP. Taking everything into consideration, especially what the odds offer, we are going with a safe bet here with the Twins covering the +1.5-run spread.