Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Arnaldi – Breakdown and Prediction

April 27, 2024

Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Arnaldi: ATP Madrid – Second round

Former world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev is starting his journey at ATP Madrid in the second round against Matteo Arnaldi on Saturday.

Daniil Medvedev Profile

Daniil Medvedev is currently fourth in the ATP rankings and is one of only a couple of active players who have been at the top of the rankings at a certain point in their career. The Russian is 19-5 for the season and 1-1 on clay courts.

He is coming off a 6-3, 7-5 second-round loss to Karen Khachanov in Monte Carlo. In the first one, Medvedev defeated Gael Monfils 6-2, 6-4.

Medvedev lost both finals this season to Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open and in Indian Wells to Carlos Alcaraz.

This is his fifth appearance in Madrid, and he has never gone further than the round of 16.

Matteo Arnaldi Profile

Matteo Arnaldi is currently 36th in the ATP rankings, one spot lower than his career high. The Italian is 14-10 for the season and 4-2 on clay courts.

He is coming off a 6-4, 6-1 first-round win over Christopher O’Connell.

Last week, he reached the quarterfinals in Barcelona, where he was stopped by Casper Ruud. Earlier in the tournament, Arnaldi defeated Marco Trungelliti, Sebastian Baez, and Arthur Cazaux.

He also made it to the quarterfinals in the first week of the year in Brisbane.

This is his second appearance in Madrid after he reached the third round last year.

Head-to-Head – Medvedev leads 2-0

Medvedev vs Arnaldi 6-2, 7-5 (2023 ATP Toronto, second round)
Medvedev vs Arnaldi 6-4, 6-2 (2023 ATP Dubai, first round)

Prediction and Conclusion

Daniil Medvedev has been among the top players on the tour in recent years, but it is a fact that he has never been a great player on clay. He definitely works to change that perception, and this may be the season to do that. There is no doubt that he needs to pick up his game on clay in order to get back on top of the rankings, and this may be the tournament for him. Medvedev won both matches against Arnaldi last year in straight sets, and even though the Italian is much better on clay, Medvedev will win this one easily once again.