Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz – Breakdown and Prediction

March 17, 2024

Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz: Indian Wells Masters – Final

For the second year in a row, Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz will face each other in the Indian Wells final.

Daniil Medvedev Profile

Daniil Medvedev is fourth in the ATP rankings. The Russian is 14-2 for the season, with all the matches being played on hard surfaces.

He came back from a set down in the semifinal against Tommy Paul moving on with a 4-6, 7-6, 6-2 win. Previously in the tournament, Medvedev defeated Holger Rune, Grigor Dimitrov, Sebastian Korda, and Roberto Carballes Baena.

Indian Wells is the third tournament of the year for Medvedev after he lost the final at the Australian Open and the semifinal in Dubai.

Carlos Alcaraz Profile

Carlos Alcaraz is second in the ATP rankings. The Spaniard is 12-3 for the season and 9-1 on hard surfaces.

He is also coming off a 1-6, 6-2, 6-2 win over Jannik Sinner in the semifinals, handing the Italian his first loss of the season. Earlier in the tournament, Alcaraz defeated Alexander Zverev, Fabian Marozsan, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Matteo Arnaldi.

Alcaraz came to Indian Wells after suffering an ankle injury in the first round in Rio de Janeiro. Earlier in the season, he made it to the semifinals in Buenos Aires and the quarterfinals at the Australian Open.

Head-to-Head Alcaraz leads 3-2

Alcaraz vs Medvedev 6-4, 6-4 (2023 ATP Masters Cup)
Medvedev vs Alcaraz 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 (2023 US Open, semifinal)
Alcaraz vs Medvedev 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 (2023 Wimbledon, semifinal)
Alcaraz vs Medvedev 6-3, 6-2 (2023 Indian Wells, final)
Medvedev vs Alcaraz 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 (2021 Wimbledon, second round)

Prediction and Conclusion

Two former world No. 1 players will face each other in the Indian Wells final for the second year in a row. Last year, Alcaraz won 6-4, 6-4 for his first title in Indian Wells. Both players are coming off comeback wins in the semifinals, and this will be a very interesting match. They played four times last year, with the Spaniard winning three of those matches. Alcaraz had a couple of hours more to rest in front of the final, and his aggressiveness will be too much for Medvedev to handle, which will lead him to another title in Indian Wells.