Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx – Breakdown and Prediction

October 1, 2024

Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx: Playoffs – Semifinals

The Minnesota Lynx are hosting the Connecticut Sun in Target Center in Game 2 of the WNBA Semifinals.

The Sun are in a promising situation

The Connecticut Sun finished the regular season second in the Eastern Conference with a 28-12 record, including 14-6 on the road. In th opening playoff round they swept the Indiana Fever. The Sun are the team who takes and makes the most free throws per game but has the second-lowest percentage. They are ranked eighth in the league scoring 80.4 points per game. Marina Mabrey leads the team with 21.4 points per game this playoffs.

Can the Lynx step up?

The Minnesota Lynx finished the regular season on top of the Western Conference with a 30-10 record, including 16-4 at home. In the opening playoff round, they swept the swept the Phoenix Mercury. The Lynx are second in the league allowing 76.6 points per game and are the best three-point shooting team in the league making 38.1% of their attempts. Napheesa Collier leads the team averaging 33 points and 9.7 rebounds per game in the postseason.

Betting Trends

The Sun are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games overall, 5-1 SU in their last 6 games on the road, 13-3 SU in their last 16 games against the Lynx and 5-0 SU in their last 5 visits to Minnesota. They are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Minnesota. Connecticut has played under the total point line in 8 of their last 11 games overall and 4 of their last 5 games on the road while has gone over in 4 of their last 5 games against the Lynx and 5 of their last 7 games when visiting Minnesota. The Lynx are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games overall, and 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games. They are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games overall and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games. Minnesota has played over the total point line in 4 of their last 6 games overall and has stayed under in 4 of their last 6 home games.

Prediction and Conclusion

The Connecticut Sun stole Game 1 of the semifinal series, winning 73-70 in Minneapolis. That was their fifth win in the last six games against the Lynx, who lost only four games at home during the regular season. The Sun limited the Lynx to only 8 points in the final quarter and managed to turn things around and win the game. Marina Mabrey was excellent, making six three-pointers for 20 points, and Alyssa Thomas added 17 points, 10 rebounds, and 9 assists. The Lynx made only five three-pointers in total and will need to step up and tie the series. No team has won by more than five points in their last six head-to-head games, so we go with the Sun to cover the +5.5-point spread.