Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx – Breakdown and Prediction

October 8, 2024

Connecticut Sun vs Minnesota Lynx: Playoffs – Semifinals

The Minnesota Lynx are hosting the Connecticut Sun in the decisive Game 5 of the WNBA Semifinals at target Center on Tuesday.

Can the Sun win on the road again?

The Connecticut Sun finished the regular season second in the Eastern Conference with a 28-12 record, including 14-6 on the road. In the opening playoff round, they swept the Indiana Fever. The Sun are the team who takes and makes the most free throws per game but has the second-lowest percentage. They are ranked eighth in the league scoring 80.4 points per game. Marina Mabrey leads the team with 21.4 points per game this playoffs.

The Lynx are rock solid at home

The Minnesota Lynx finished the regular season on top of the Western Conference with a 30-10 record, including 16-4 at home. In the opening playoff round, they swept the swept the Phoenix Mercury. The Lynx are second in the league allowing 76.6 points per game and are the best three-point shooting team in the league making 38.1% of their attempts. Napheesa Collier leads the team averaging 33 points and 9.7 rebounds per game in the postseason.

Betting Trends

The Lynx are 18-4 SU in their last 22 games overall, 9-2 SU in their last 11 home games, 5-14 SU in their last 19 games against the Sun and 1-7 SU in their last 8 home games against them. Minnesota is 14-7 ATS in their last 24 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against the Sun. They have played over the total point line in 4 of their last 6 games overall and 6 of their last 8 games against Connecticut and have gone under in 5 of their last 7 home games. The Sun are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games overall, and 5-2 SU in their last 7 games on the road. They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Connecticut has played under the total point line in 5 of their last 6 games on the road.

Prediction and Conclusion

It all comes to Game 5 in the WNBA semifinal series between the Minnesota Lynx and the Connecticut Sun. The Sun won the opener on the road, then the Lynx won two consecutive games before the Sun tied the series with a 92-82 Game 4 victory. With the season on the line, Alyssa Thomas and Ty Harris helped Connecticut force a decisive Game 5. Harris led the team with 20 points, while Thomas had 18 points, 11 assists, and 8 rebounds. Now the Sun are going back to Twin City, where they have won 4 of the last 5 games. Minnesota is still the favorite since they had a 16-4 record at home. The total point line is set much lower than the score of Game 4 indicates, but with the WNBA Finals being on the line, it will be a tough game with a lot of contact, so we go with under 151.5 points in total. The winner of this game will play the New York Liberty in the WNBA Finals.