College Basketball Betting Trends

Eric Canha / CSM/Sipa USA (Credit Image: © Eric Canha/Cal Sport Media/Sipa USA)

All the eyes of the basketball world will be focused on State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, where the 2024 NCAA Final Four will take place.

Purdue and UConn were among the top favorites to go this deep all season long, while NC State and Alabama have shocked many. The final two teams standing will be known after the semifinals between the Wolfpack and the Boilermakers and Crimson Tide and Huskies.

We put in work in our game breakdowns and college basketball betting trends for the semifinal games.

Purdue vs NC State

The Purdue Boilermakers have been among the top-seeded teams in the nation all season long. They finished the regular season on top of the Big Ten with a 33-4 record for the season and 17-3 in conference play.

However, they failed to win the conference championship after losing the semifinal 76-75 in overtime against Wisconsin.

That was definitely unexpected, but the Boilermakers did not lose their composure and got back to business when the NCAA tournament began.

In the first round, Purdue warmed up with a 78-50 win over Grambling. Utah State was not a challenge at all in the second round, as the Boilermakers won 106-67. In the Sweet 16, Purdue once again showed they are for real this season, defeating Gonzaga 80-68. Finally, in the Elite 8, the Boilermakers won 72-66 against Tennessee.

Zach Edey is having a tournament for the record books. The center has averaged 30 points and 16.3 rebounds during the tournament, joining Elvin Hayes, Jerry West, and Wilt Chamberlain as the only players in the last 70 years to average at least 30 points and 15 boards through four games. Edey set a career-high of 40 points and 16 rebounds against Tennessee for his seventh consecutive double-double and 28th overall this season.

The Boilermakers are 11th in the nation scoring 83.5 points per game, second shooting 40.6% from three-point territory and tenth in free throw made per game.

The NC State Wolfpack finished the regular season in tenth place in the ACC with a 26-14 record for the season and 9-11 in conference play. Out of nowhere, they went on to win the conference championship, beating North Carolina 84-76 in the final. Previously, the Wolfpack defeated Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, and Louisville.

They transferred that confidence to the NCAA tournament. They won 80-67 against Texas Tech in the first round and then came back from the dead, winning 79-73 in overtime against Oakland in the second. In the Sweet 16, the Wolfpack stunned Marquette 67-58 and made it to the Final Four with a 76-64 win over Duke.

Being the 11th seed in the South Region, NC State is the highest-seeded team to reach the Final Four since seeding began in 1979, matching LSU (1986), George Mason (2006), VCU (2011), Loyola Chicago (2018), and UCLA (2021).

DJ Burns is one of the stars in the tournament so far. The center averaged 13 points per game in the regular season, scoring over 20 only once in 35 games. He picked up his game to another level in the tournament, going over 20 in all four games and scoring a season-high 29 in the win over Duke.

The Wolfpack are 124th in the nation averaging 76.3 points per game, 148th shooting 34.7% from deep and 197th shooting 45.2% from the field.

Purdue vs NC State: College basketball betting trends

Purdue is 33-4 SU for the season, 10-1 SU on a neutral field, and 28-4 SU following a win. The Boilermakers are 20-15-2 ATS for the season, 8-2-1 ATS on a neutral field, and 16-14-2 ATS following a win. Purdue is 23-14-0 over the total point line for the season, 6-5-0 on a neutral field, and 21-11-0 following a win.

NC State is 26-14 SU for the season, 10-2 SU on a neutral field, and 18-7 SU following a win. The Wolfpack are 20-19-1 ATS for the season, 8-4-0 ATS on a neutral field, and 13-12-0 ATS following a win. NC State is 23-16-1 over the total point line for the season, 8-4-0 on a neutral field, and 15-9-1 following a win.

Prediction and Conclusion

Everybody was expecting to see Purdue in the Final Four, but no one could have predicted that NC State would come even close to it. They had a losing regular-season record in the conference but somehow won the ACC championship. Even then, the Wolfpack were seen as the underdogs, but whoever watched them play knows that this team is for real. It will be interesting to see the matchup between Eday and Burns, and if the Wolfpack center can be as effective as Edey, the Wolfpack will have a chance. Purdue is a nine-point favorite going into this game. They won the previous four games of the tournament with an average margin of 21.3 points, but things will not go that smoothly this time around. NC State will hang in this game, and even if they lose, they will cover the +9-point spread.

UConn vs Alabama

The defending national champions, the UConn Huskies, finished the season as the number one team in the country. They were on top of the Big East with a 35-3 regular season record and 18-2 in conference play. They had no problem at all winning the conference championship with a 73-57 victory over Marquette.

They are having a spectacular NCAA tournament so far, beating the previous four opponents by at least a 17-point margin. They started with a 91-52 win over Stetson and moved on with a 75-58 win over Northwestern. In the Sweet 16, the Huskies dominated San Diego State in an 82-52 win. The Elite 8 was another walk in the park for the Huskies, who had a 30-0 at one point of the game in a 77-52 win over Illinois.

Tristen Newton is the top scorer for UConn this season, averaging 15 points per game. Cam Spencer is the best shooter on the team, averaging 14.4 points per game on 44% shooting from the three-point line. Center Donovan Clingan is another valuable asset for the Huskies, averaging 12.9 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.

The Huskies are 13th in the nation, allowing 63.3 points per game; tenth, allowing 39% shooting from the field; and 15th, shooting 49.8% from the field.

The Alabama Crimson Tide is having an epic season. They finished fourth in the SEC with a 25-11 record for the season and 13-5 in conference play. The Crimson Tide lost 102-88 to Florida in the SEC quarterfinal.

The NCAA tournament was a different story. Alabama started with a 109-96 win over Charleston, followed by a 72-61 win over Grand Canyon. The first major upset came in the Sweet 16 as the Crimson Tide won 89-87 against North Carolina. In the Elite 8, Alabama found themselves 13 points down to Clemson for an 89-82 win against Clemson.

Mark Sears leads the team with 21.5 points per game, which puts him 14th in the nation. Aaron Estrada is another all-around player, averaging 13.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game.

UConn vs Alabama: College basketball betting trends

UConn is 35-3 SU for the season, 11-0 SU on a neutral field, and 31-3 SU following a win. The Huskies are 26-1-0 ATS for the season, 10-1-0 ATS on a neutral field, and 23-11-0 ATS following a win. UConn is 16-21-1 over the total point line for the season, 3-8-0 on a neutral field, and 14-19-1 following a win.

Alabama is 25-11 SU for the season, 6-4 SU on a neutral field, and 16-8 SU following a win. The Crimson Tide are 21-15-0 ATS for the season, 5-5-0 ATS on a neutral field, and 14-10-0 ATS following a win. Alabama is 27-9-0 over the total point line for the season, 8-2-0 on a neutral field, and 18-6-0 following a win.

Prediction and Conclusion

The UConn Huskies are having a chance to become the first team since the Florida Gators from the 2006–07 season to defend the national championship. In the semifinals, they will face Alabama, which is making its first Final Four appearance in school history. UConn has been the main favorite to win the title since day one of the season, while the Crimson Tide stunned everybody on multiple occasions to get this deep in the tournament. Alabama is the best-scoring team in the league, but things will not go as usual against one of the best defenses in the country. UConn is playing excellently, with multiple players having the quality to take over any game. The Huskies are -11-point favorites, and given the fact that they have been blowing out everybody in the tournament, they will do the same against the Crimson Tide.