Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves – Breakdown and Prediction

September 9, 2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves: Both teams have split the last ten games

The Cincinnati Reds are visiting the Atlanta Braves tonight at Truist Park.

Another losing season for the Reds

The Cincinnati Reds are fourth in the NL Central with a 69-75 record, including 33-36 on the road. They have won 5 of the last 7 games and are coming off a 3-1 win over the New York Mets. The Reds have a 4.12 ERA, a .237 batting average, a .310 on-base percentage, and 1.25 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Elly De La Cruz is the best player on the team, leading with 143 hits, 95 runs, and 23 home runs.

The Braves are on the right path

The Atlanta Braves are third in the NL East with a 78-65 record including 40-30 at home. They have won 4 of the last 6 games and are coming off a 4-3 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Braves have a 3.53 ERA, a .237 batting average, a .304 on-base percentage, and 1.21 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Marcell Ozuna is the best player on the team, with 165 hits, 86 runs, and 37 home runs.

Betting Trends

The Braves are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games overall and 2-8 SU in their last 10 games against teams from the NL Central. Atlanta has played over the total run line in 7 of their last 8 games against the Reds and 4 of their last 5 home games against them while they have played under in 11 of their last 12 home games and 7 of their last 8 games overall. The Reds are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games overall, 2-5 SU in their last 7 games on the road and 2-6 SU in their last 8 games against teams from the NL. Cincinnati has played over the total run line in 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the NL East and has played under in 5 of their last 7 games overall.

Prediction and Conclusion

Both teams have had ups and downs in the last couple of weeks, which may be a problem for the Braves. They have a 75% chance of making it to the playoffs and will have to pick their game up in order to clinch a playoff berth. Atlanta will start veteran Charlie Morton, who is 8-7 for the season with a 4.24 ERA, 148 K, 142.1 IP, and 1.32 WHIP. The Reds will go with Nick Martinez, who is 7-6 for the season with a 3.67 ERA, 93 K, 115.1 IP, and 1.15 WHIP. Given the odds, the Braves are the favorite to win this one, but the Reds won the last two games in Atlanta, so we go with the Reds covering the +1.5-run spread.