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October 6, 2023
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College basketball is back after a short Christmas break. As the March Madness is getting closer, things are heating up.
There is a long schedule for the New Year’s weekend, and we have our game breakdowns and college basketball betting trends for four of the most interesting games on Friday.
The Kentucky Wildcats are usual suspects when it comes to the NCAA championship and the top team in the SEC will host Illinois State for the weekend. The North Carolina Tar Heels will try to keep their winning streak alive when they host Charleston Southern. The Gonzaga Bulldogs will take on San Diego State and California will host Arizona.
Let’s take a deeper look at the college basketball betting trends for these four games.
The Kentucky Wildcats are currently ranked ninth in the country and are on top of the SEC with a 9-2 record. The only two losses of the year came against the top team in the country, Kansas, which wasn’t a big deal, but failing to UNC Wilmington was one of the biggest upsets of the season.
Kentucky is the third-best scoring team in the country, averaging 90.6 points per game, and they are ranked fourth, shooting 41.4% from three-point territory. Defensively, they have a lot of room for improvement as they are not in the top 200 teams in points allowed per game.
The Wildcats are currently on a three-game winning streak and are coming off a 95-76 win over Louisville. Senior guard Antonio Reeves had the best game of the season, scoring 30 points. He leads the Wildcats with 18.3 points per game.
Illinois State is on top of MVC with an 8-4 record. They have won 5 of the last 6 games and are coming off an 85-64 win over South East Missouri State. Darius Burford, who leads the team with 13.7 points per game for the season, scored 28 and 22 in the last two appearances.
The Redbirds are scoring only 67.9 points per game, which ranks them 250th in the country, but they hold their opponents to 66.3, putting them 76th in the country.
Kentucky has hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 34 games and Illinois State in 8 of their last 14 road games.
There is no doubt that the Wildcats are major favorites in this game, but the given spread is –19.5 games. The total given line is set at 148.5 points. There is a 25-point difference in the average of the two teams, and knowing that Kentucky will run the show tonight, this game will go over the given line.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are on top of the ACC with an 8-3 record. They only lost to Villanova in overtime in the first eight games of the season but failed twice in the last three. The University of Connecticut beat the Tar Heels 87-76, followed by an 87-83 loss to Kentucky.
North Carolina is ranked 24th in the country, averaging 84.5 points per game. That is quite a lot, given their shooting percentages. They are ranked 140th in the country, shooting 45.7% from the field, and 81st with 35.6% from three-point territory.
Senior guard RJ Davis is having an excellent season, averaging 21.7 points per game and tying for eighth place in the country. Senior forward Armando Bacot is averaging a double-double of 15.1 points and 11 rebounds per game.
The Charleston Southern Buccaneers are on top of the Big South with a 4-8 record. They have lost 7 of the last 9 games but are coming off a 103-79 win over Kentucky Christian. Junior guard DJ Patrick led the Buccaneers with 21 points. Guard RJ Johnson is the leading scorer, averaging 17.3 points per game.
The Buccaneers are 254th in the country with 71.8 points per game. They average only 11.9 assists per game, which puts them 298th in the country.
The Tar Heels are 5-6 ATS for the season and 2-3 ATS in home games.
The Tar Heels are on completely another level compared to Charleston Southern. The visitors are 0-6 on the road while playing in a conference against teams with average quality. The Tar Heels are a 32.5-point favorite going into this game. This will definitely be a blowout win, but motivation will play a major role in this one. This is the chance for Charleston Southern to be on national TV while it is just another game for the Tar Heels. Given that, the Buccaneers will fight the best they can and will cover the large spread.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are on top of the WCC with a 9-3 record, including a perfect 6-0 at home. The Bulldogs won 7 of the first 8 games of the season before splitting the last four. Gonzaga is coming off a 100-76 win over Jackson State, with Graham Ike recording 22 points and 11 rebounds. Ike and senior forward Anton Watson lead the Bulldogs with 14.1 points per game.
Gonzaga is 28th in the country with 84.3 points per game. They make 31.8 field goals per game, which ranks them seventh in the country. They are pretty bad when it comes to three-point shooting, being ranked 245th in the country with 32%. They are shooting 69.8% from the free-throw line, being 231st in the country.
The San Diego State Aztecs are on top of the Mountain West with a 10-2 record. The two losses came against BYU and Grand Canyon. The Aztecs have won the last three games and are coming off a 74-60 win over Stanford. Jaedon LeDee leads the team with 21.6 points per game, ranking tenth in the country.
The Aztecs are a poor shooting team, being ranked under 150th in all three shooting categories. Defensively, the Aztecs allow 66.3 points per game.
Gonzaga has played under in 6 of the last 10 games this season while San Diego State has done so in 4 of the last 10 games.
Both teams rank highly in their respective conferences, but the fact is that they are not playing as well as they can. The Bulldogs are 6-0 at home, while San Diego State is 1-2 on the road. This will be a tight game as both teams are not shooting well, and the competitiveness will affect efficiency. The total point line is set at 147.5 and given the circumstances, this game will stay under the line.
The Arizona Wildcats are third in the Pac-12 with a 9-2 record. They started the season with eight straight wins and have lost two of the last three. The Wildcats are coming off a 96-95 double overtime loss against Florida Atlantic.
Senior guard Caleb Love leads Arizona with 16.5 points per game while shooting only 39.6% from the field.
The Wildcats are second in the country, scoring 92.5 points per game, and third with 20.5 assists per game. They are ranked 24th in the country, shooting 49.3% from the field. Arizona is also ranked second in the country with 41.5 rebounds per game.
The California Golden Bears are third in the Pac 12 with a 4-7 record. California has won only twice in the last eight games and is coming off a 71-67 win over UC San Diego. Senior forward Fardaws Aimaq had the best game of the season, recording 19 points and 10 rebounds. Junior guard Jaylon Tyson leads California with 19.7 points and 7 rebounds per game.
The Golden Bears shoot only 44% from the field and 34.7% from deep. Another problem for California is the 11.4 turnovers per game they have, which ranks them 294th in the country.
Arizona is 9-2-0 ATS for the season and 8-2-0 ATS as favorites.
The Arizona Wildcats are ranked fourth in the nation and come to this game as a 13-point favorite against California. The Wildcats are excellent on the offensive end, and that will be visible against the Golden Bears, who are vulnerable on the defensive end. Arizona will take control of the game early on, building a significant lead that will take them to another victory, covering the given spread.
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