Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev – Breakdown and Prediction

May 1, 2024

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev: ATP Madrid – Quarterfinal

The two-time ATP Madrid champion Carlos Alcaraz will take on Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinal.

Carlos Alcaraz Profile

Carlos Alcaraz is third in the ATP rankings, and last season he had a chance to taste the top of the rankings. The defending ATP Madrid champion is 19-4 for the season and 5-2 on clay.

The Spaniard is coming off a tough 6-3, 6-7, 7-6 win over Jan-Lennard Struff in the round of 16. Previously in the tournament, he defeated Thiago Seyboth Wild and Alexander Shevchenko, both in straight sets.

This is the first tournament for Alcaraz after a month off. He lost to Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinal in Miami after winning Indian Wells.

Alcaraz won the last two editions of the ATP Madrid. Last year he defeated Struff in the final and the year before, Alexander Zverev.

Andrey Rublev Profile

Andrey Rublev is eighth in the ATP rankings, three spots lower than his career high. The Russian is 18-8 for the season and 3-2 on clay courts.

He is coming off a 6-2, 6-4 win over Tallon Griekspoor in the round of 16. Previously, Ruble went past Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Facundo Bagnis.

Those were his first wins after losing in the opening round of three consecutive tournaments in Barcelona, Monte Carlo, and Miami.

Rublev won the title in Hong Kong in the first week of the season and made it to the semifinals in Dubai, where he was disqualified in the match against Alexander Bublik.

This is Rublev’s fourth appearance in Madrid and the second quarterfinal after 2022.

Head-to-Head – Tied 1-1

Alcaraz vs Rublev 7-5, 6-2 (2023 ATP Masters Cup)
Rublev vs Alcaraz 6-2, 6-1 (2022 Abu Dhabi exhibition, semifinals)

Prediction and Conclusion

Carlos Alcaraz is still searching for his best form, which put him on top of the tennis world not that long ago. The Spaniard barely survived the rematch of last year’s final against Jan-Lennard Struff. He had a set and a break advantage but then needed the decisive tiebreak to move forward. Rublev had an easier way to the quarterfinals, winning all three matches in straight sets, but the month of April had not been successful for him. He lost the opener in three consecutive tournaments and came to Madrid to regain his confidence. Anyway, Rublev has won the title in the last two years in Madrid, and Rublev is not a player who can stand in his way. Alcaraz will show up ready and win this match in straight sets.