Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans – Breakdown and Prediction

October 6, 2024

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans: Both teams top their divisions

The Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans will face each other at NRG Stadium on Sunday.

Is this the season for the Bills?

The Buffalo Bills are on top of the AFC East with a 3-1 record. They had an excellent start of the season winning the first three games. In the opening week, the Bills won 34-28 against the Arizona Cardinals despite not playing their best football and having a double-digit deficit during the game. They looked much better in the 31-10 away win against the Miami Dolphins and won their third straight, 47-10 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last week, the Bills failed 35-10 against the Baltimore Ravens which ended their NFL-record streak of 43 consecutive regular-season games without a loss by six or more points came to an end. That loss also ended the Bills eight-game regular season winning streak, as they won the last five last season.

Are the Texans real contenders?

The Houston Texans are on top of the AFC South with a 3-1 record and are perfect 2-0 at home. They started the season with a tight 29-27 win on the road against the Indianapolis Colts which gave them a real boost. A close home win against the Chicago Bears followed, before the Texans lost 34-7 when visiting the Minnesota Vikings. That was a huge blow for their confidence but they were able to bounce back with a 24-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last year’s rookie of the year, CJ Stroud threw for 345 yards and two touchdowns, capped by a one-yard pass to third-string running back Dare Ogunbowale with 18 seconds left, to give the Texans the win.

Betting Trends

The Texans are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games overall and 5-1 SU in their last 6 home games. Houston has played under the total point line in 6 of their last 7 games against Buffalo and their last 5 games in October. The Bills are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games overall and 8-2 SU in their last 10 games against teams from the AFC. Buffalo has played over the total point line in 6 of their last 9 games overall.

Prediction and Conclusion

Both teams have an excellent start to the season and the odds can be as close as it gets as the Bills are a -1-point favorite. Buffalo has been by far the better team between the two in recent years but that gap is not as big as it used to be. CJ Stroud became one of the best quarterbacks in the league in his rookie season and he has made a respectable team out of the Texans. With Tank Dell returning to the lineup for the Texans which makes their offense more dynamic and that give Houston a legit chance in this game. The Texans are the second in the league in QB rating with 113.5 and 30.5 points per game which is more than impressive but at the same time the Bills are better in the majority of the defensive stats. There is no way the Texans will score even close to their season average and with the total point line being set at 47.5, we go with under for this game.