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October 6, 2023
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Bowling Green vs Minnesota: Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Bowling Green and Minnesota will round up on Tuesday afternoon at the Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan, in the Quick Lane Bowl. Both teams have a lot of roster movements, which makes this game hard to predict.
Bowling Green regular season breakdown
The Bowling Green Falcons finished third in the MAC East with a 7-5 record. They had a slow start, losing 4 of the first 6 games, but finished the season by winning 5 of the last 8 games. The Falcons are coming off a 34-10 win over Western Michigan, with Connor Bazelak throwing for 217 yards. The Falcons scored 26.3 points per game on 60.3% pass completion. Bowling Green lost the same Bowl game last season to New Mexico and is 1-6 in Bowl games since 2008.
Minnesota regular season breakdown
The Minnesota Golden Gophers finished fourth in the Big 10 West with a 5-7 record, and the only reason they qualified for this game was the fact that they had the best academic score among teams with five wins. They lost all four games in November to close the season. The Gophers are coming off a 28-14 loss to Wisconsin. Their defensive coordinator, Joe Rossi, left the program to join the Michigan State Spartans. However, Minnesota has won the last 6 Bowl games, four of which were under head coach P.J. Fleck.
Betting Trends
Bowling Green is 8-4 ATS for the season and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games while Minnesota is 3-9 ATS for the season.
Player to watch
Minnsota’s senior Dragan Kesich was selected as the Big Ten Kicker of the Year, going 22 for 26 on field goals and making all 24 of his PATs. The Golden Gophers will need him to convert on every opportunity to have a chance in this game.
Injury Report
RB Taron Keith and S Trent Sims are out for Bowling Green, while Minnesota will play without QB Drew Viotto, DB Darius Green, LB Maverick Baranowski, and LB Jack Tinnen.
Prediction and Conclusion
Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite against Bowling Green, which is pretty difficult to digest knowing that they lost the last three games and will start with their third quarterback. The Falcons are also majorly hurt by the absence of their best player, Ta’ron Keith, but have better options to cover than the Gophers. The total point line for this game is set at 38, meaning that this will be a slow game, so those 3.5 points are more than it seems at first sight. Knowing that Bowling Green was 29th in the league in ATS and Minnesota was 248th, there is no reason not to go with the Falcons to cover the spread.
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