Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets – Breakdown and Prediction

September 2, 2024

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets: The stakes are huge for both teams

The Boston Red Sox are visiting the New York Mets today at Citi Field.

The Red Sox need to step their game up

The Boston Red Sox are third in the AL East with a 70-67 record including 39-29 on the road. They are going to New York after losing the last two games to the Detroit Tigers. Boston has a 4.14 ERA, a .244 batting average, a .308 on-base percentage, and 1.25 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Jarren Duran is the best player on the team with 167 hits, and 96 runs while Rafael Devers leads the team with 28 home runs.

The Mets are in good form

The New York Mets are third in the NL East with a 73-64 record, including 35-33 at home. They have won the last four games and are coming off a series sweep against the Chicago White Sox. The Mets have a 4.07 ERA, a .230 batting average, a .318 on-base percentage, and 1.29 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Francisco Lindor leads the team with 151 hits and 94 runs and Pete Alonso is on top with 30 home runs.

Betting Trends

The Mets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games overall, 1-6 SU in their last 7 home games against Boston, and 6-1 SU in their last 7 games against teams from the AL East. New York has played under the total run line in 4 of their last 5 games overall, 6 of their last 8 games against Boston, 4 of their last 6 home games, and 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the AL. The Red Sox are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games overall, 8-1 SU in their last 9 games against the Mets and 1-8 SU in their last 9 games against teams from the NL. Boston has played under in 5 of their last 6 games overall and has gone over in 13 of their last 20 games on the road and the last five games against teams from the NL East.

Prediction and Conclusion

Both teams are entering the final month of their regular season with playoff hopes, but they will need to be close to perfect in order to get there. The Mets have a 28.6% chance of making the playoffs, while the Red Sox are at 15.9%. The Mets are in much better form, winning 7 of the last 10 games, while the Red Sox won only three games in the same stretch. Boston will try to pick up their form tonight, starting Brayan Bello, who is 12-6 for the season with a 4.66 ERA, 131 K, 137 IP, and 1.37 WHIP. The Mets will also have one of their best pitchers this year, as Luis Severino is 9-6 for the season with a 3.96 ERA, 131 K, 152.1 IP, and 1.26 WHIP. This game can easily go either way, but there will not be much scoring, so we go with under 8.5 total runs.