Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox – Breakdown and Prediction

September 9, 2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: An AL East classic

The Baltimore Orioles are visiting the Boston Red Sox tonight at Fenway Park.

Are the Orioles in crisis?

The Baltimore Orioles are second in the AL East with an 82-62 record and 40-29 on the road which puts them 0.5 games behind the New York Yankees. The Orioles have lost 3 of the last 4 games and are coming off back-to-back losses to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Orioles have a 3.90 ERA, a .236 batting average, a .303 on-base percentage, and 1.24 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Gunnar Henderson leads the team with 159 hits, 108 runs while Anthony Santander is on top with 39 home runs.

Can the Red Sox save the season?

The Boston Red Sox are third in the AL East with a 72-71 record including 33-39 at home. They have lost six of the last eight games and are coming off a 7-2 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Boston has a 4.19 ERA, a .244 batting average, a .308 on-base percentage, and 1.26 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Jarren Duran is the best player on the team with 172 hits, and 99 runs while Rafael Devers leads the team with 28 home runs.

Betting Trends

The Red Sox are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games overall and 3-11 SU in their last 14 games played in September. Boston has played under the total run line in 8 of their last 12 games overall and 5 of their last 6 home games and have gone over in 8 of their last 9 home games against Baltimore. The Orioles are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against Boston, 10-4 SU in their last 14 games played in September and 15-5 SU in their last 20 games played on Monday. Baltimore has played under the total run line in 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the AL East.

Prediction and Conclusion

The Baltimore Orioles have a promising season and are almost certain for the playoffs, while the Red Sox have only 6.2% of a chance to get there. The Red Sox have won only two games of the last eight, and those two came against the worst team in the league, the White Sox. The Orioles are also in bad shape, scoring only one run in the last two games against the Rays. The Orioles will try to bounce back with rookie Cade Povich on the mound, who is 2-7 for the season with a 5.76 ERA, 47 K, 59.1 IP, and 1.60 WHIP. The Red Sox will go with Brayan Bello on the mound, who is 12-7 for the season with a 4.75 ERA, 135 K, 142 IP, and 1.38 WHIP. Both teams are under pressure tonight, so we expect this to be a high-scoring game, and we go with over 9.5 runs in total.