Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA

Atlanta Dream vs New York Liberty: A must-win game for the visitors

The New York Liberty are hosting the Atlanta Dream in Barclays Center on Thursday.

The Dream’s season is on the line

The Atlanta Dream are fourth in the Eastern Conference with a 14-25 record, including 6-13 on the road. After losing three consecutive games, the Dream won the last two and are coming off an 86-70 win over the Chicago Sky. They are the worst offensive team in the league scoring 77 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field. Rhyne Howard is the best player on the team averaging 17.4 points per game.

The Liberty are the best team in the league

The New York Liberty are on top of the Eastern Conference with a league-best 32-7 record including 16-3 at home. They have won 6 of the last 7 games and are coming off an 87-71 win over the Washington Mystics. New York is the second-best offensive team in the league scoring 86.2 points per game while making a league-high 10.2 three-pointers per game. Breanna Stewart leads the team averaging 20.6 points per game, followed by Sabrina Ionescu who scores 18.6 points per game.

Betting Trends

The Dream are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a win, 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record, 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games playing after a one-day rest, 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road, 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games overall and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games played on Thursday. Atlanta has played under the total point line in 8 of their last 11 games following a win, 4 of their last 5 games on the road, 15 of their last 21 games following a ATS win, 9 of their last 13 games playing after a one-day rest, 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the Eastern Conference and 9 of their last 14 games overall. The Liberty are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing after a one-day rest, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams from the Eastern Conference, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. New York has played under the total point line in 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the Eastern Conference, 5 of their last 6 home games, 3 of their last 5 games played on Thursday, 7 of their last 10 games following a win and 14 of their last 21 games overall.

Prediction and Conclusion

The Atlanta Dream are going into this game with the season on the line and have a chance to reach the playoffs in the last game of the regular season. They can make it to the playoffs even if they lose in the Big Apple, but only if the Washington Mystics lose to the Indiana Fever at home. The New York Liberty are locked for the top seed in the East and will have the home-court advantage for the entire playoffs. The Liberty have won the last five games against the Dream. Given the stakes, they are only a -3.5-point favorite in this game, and that spread was -15.5 in their previous game against the Dream. Regardless of the different motive, both teams are going with in this game, the Liberty are a much better team, and we go with them to win this one.