Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets – Breakdown and Prediction

July 25, 2024

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets: A NL East matchup

The Atlanta Braves are visiting the New York Mets tonight in the series opener at Citi Field.

The Braves have a tough week

The Atlanta Braves are second in the NL East with a 54-46 record including 24-25 on the road. The Braves have lost the last four games and two of the three games in their series against the Reds got postponed. The Braves have a 3.52 ERA, a .234 batting average, a .302 on-base percentage, and 1.20 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Marcell Ozuna is the best player on the team, with 114 hits, 61 runs, and 28 home runs.

The Mets’ confidence is sky-high

The New York Mets are third in the NL East with a 53-48 record, including 26-26 at home. They have won 4 of the last 5 games and are coming off back-to-back wins over the Yankees. The Mets have a 4.20 ERA, a .233 batting average, a .323 on-base percentage, and 1.31 walks plus hits per inning pitched. Francisco Lindor leads the team with 106 hits and 68 runs and 21 home runs.

Betting Trends

The Mets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games overall, 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against teams from the NL, and 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against teams from the NL East. New York has played over the total run line in 6 of their last 9 games overall and in 10 of their last 12 home games and has stayed under in 4 of their last 5 games when hosting Atlanta. The Braves are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games overall, 14-6 SU in their last 20 games against the Mets, and 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against teams from the NL. Atlanta has played under the total run line in 6 of their last 9 games overall and in 12 of their last 17 games against teams from the NL East.

Prediction and Conclusion

Both teams have promising seasons and are only 1.5 wins separated in the NL East division, but they are still far behind the leading Philadelphia Phillies. They are coming into this series with a completely different momentum, as the Braves lost the last four games while the Mets won both of the games at Yankee Stadium. The Mets will try to keep their winning streak alive with Luis Severino, who is 7-3 for the season with a 3.58 ERA, 88 K, 115.2 IP, and 1.18 WHIP. The Braves will go with one of their best pitchers in hopes of ending the losing streak. Chris Sale is 13-3 for the season, with a 2.70 ERA, 140 K, 110 IP, and 0.95 WHIP. These two played under the total run line in their last three matchups, and knowing that they are starting with top-level pitchers tonight, we go with under 7.5 runs in total.