Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula – Breakdown and Prediction

September 7, 2024

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula: US Open – Final

Jessica Pegula will be looking for her first ever Grand Slam title when she faces Aryna Sabalenka in the final of the US Open on Saturday.

Aryna Sabalenka Profile

Aryna Sabalenka is currently second in the WTA rankings. The player from Belarus is 45-11 for the season and 29-6 on hard surface.

Sabalenka is coming off a 6-3, 7-6 win over Emma Navarro in the semifinal. Earlier in the tournament, she defeated Qinwen Zheng, Elise Mertens, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Lucia Bronzetti and Pricilla Hon.

Sabalenka won the Australian Open and the Cincinnati Masters this season. Last year she reached the final at the US Open but lost to Coco Gauff in three sets.

Jessica Pegula Profile

Jessica Pegula is currently sixth in the WTA rankings, three spots lower than her career high. The American is 36-11 for the season and 24-6 on hard surface.

Pegula is coming off a 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 semifinal win over Karolina Muchova. Earlier in the tournament, she defeated world No. 1 Iga Swiatek as well as Diana Schneider, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Sofia Kenin and Shelby Rodgers.

Pegula won the titles in Berlin and Toronto this season.

She made her debut at the US Open in 2011 and this is her first final.

Head-to-Head Sabalenka leads 5-2

Sabalenka vs Pegula 6-3, 7-5 (2024 WTA Cincinnati, final)
Pegula vs Sabalenka 6-4, 6-3 (2023 WTA Masters Cup)
Sabalenka vs Pegula 6-3, 7-5 (2022 WTA Masters Cup)
Sabalenka vs Pegula 6-1, 6-4 (2022 WTA Rome, round of 16)
Sabalenka vs Pegula 6-1, 6-2 (2021 WTA Madrid, round of 16)
Sabalenka vs Pegula 6-3, 6-1 (2020 French Open, first round)
Pegula vs Sabalenka 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 (2020 WTA Cincinnati, round of 16)

Prediction and Conclusion

Jessica Pegula has the best tournament of her career, making it to her first ever Grand Slam Final. Aryna Sabalenka already has won two majors in Australia and is back in the final in New York after losing to Coco Gauff last year. Sabalenka won their final in Cincinnati just weeks ago, and despite the fact that Pegula will have the support of the home crowd, Sabalenka will prove once again that she is the better player and win the trophy.