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Air Force vs. Fresno State Prediction: January 17 at Save Mart Center

As the Air Force Falcons face off against the Fresno State Bulldogs this Friday, January 17, basketball enthusiasts and bettors alike are eagerly anticipating the showdown at the Save Mart Center. This article dives into a comprehensive analysis, including team performance, player stats, betting trends, and key insights, to formulate an accurate prediction for this game. Here’s what we’ll cover:

1. Air Force’s recent form and standout players

1. Fresno State’s recent struggles and key contributors

1. Betting trends for Air Force and Fresno State

1. Trends in previous matchups between these teams

1. Final prediction and favorable betting outcomes

Air Force Falcons: Struggling to Find Momentum

The Air Force Falcons are entering this game in a slump, having lost seven consecutive matchups. Most recently, they fell 69-62 to San Jose State and 68-62 to Nevada. Despite leading Nevada 35-33 at halftime, they managed only 27 points in the second half, sealing their defeat. Ethan Taylor was a bright spot, scoring 22 points alongside six rebounds and one assist, while Kyle Marshall contributed 12 points, eight rebounds, and five assists.

Team Performance Metrics

• Offense: Averaging 63.1 points per game, the Falcons rank 357th in the league.

• Defense: Allowing 69.6 points per game, they rank a more respectable 122nd.

• Three-Point Shooting: Averaging 23.24 attempts per game (171st in the league).

Star Player: Ethan Taylor

Taylor has been the standout performer for the Falcons, averaging 14.8 points per game while shooting 42.7% from the field and 39.4% from beyond the arc. His ability to make clutch plays will be critical if Air Force hopes to turn things around.

Why Air Force Could Win

• Historical Edge: Air Force has won the first half in three of its last four games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

• Opponent Weakness: Fresno State has struggled in night games, losing each of its last 10 against conference opponents.

Fresno State Bulldogs: Battling Their Own Challenges

Like Air Force, Fresno State is in a rough patch, losing six consecutive games. They suffered a 91-64 blowout against Colorado State and a 77-64 defeat to Nevada. Although they managed to push the game against Nevada into overtime, a lackluster offensive performance in the extra period led to their downfall. Key contributors included David Douglas Jr. (16 points) and Alex Crawford (13 points, four rebounds, and four assists).

Team Performance Metrics

• Offense: Averaging 73.1 points per game, the Bulldogs rank 234th in the league.

• Defense: Allowing 82.5 points per game, their defensive ranking plummets to 357th.

• Field Goal Attempts: Averaging 62.41 per game (51st in the league).

Key Player: Zaon Collins

Collins has been consistent for Fresno State, averaging 12.9 points per game while shooting 37.3% from the field. Despite a disappointing 24.3% accuracy from three-point range, Collins remains a crucial part of the Bulldogs’ offensive strategy.

Why Fresno State Could Win

• Night Game Advantage: Fresno State has won each of its last six night games against Air Force.

• Offensive Depth: With five players averaging double digits, Fresno State has the firepower to dominate.

Betting Trends to Watch

Air Force Betting Trends

• Air Force has lost 11 straight games against conference opponents.

• They have consistently struggled to cover the spread in games against teams with losing records.

Fresno State Betting Trends

• Fresno State has hit the over in four of its last five games.

• They have a strong track record in night games against non-AP-ranked opponents, especially at home.

Head-to-Head Trends

• In the last six matchups between Air Force and Fresno State, the home team has won four times.

• High-scoring games have been common, with the over hitting in three of the last five meetings.

Final Prediction: Expect a Shootout

Both teams enter this game desperate for a win, and their respective weaknesses on defense make this matchup particularly intriguing. Fresno State’s offensive depth and faster pace give them a slight edge, but Air Force’s ability to keep games close in the first half shouldn’t be overlooked. Expect a high-scoring affair, with both teams exceeding their season averages.

Prediction: Back the over on total points, as this game is likely to turn into a shootout. Fresno State’s offensive consistency should secure them the win, but Air Force’s persistence could keep the game closer than expected.

Insights

What is the key to Air Force improving their performance?
Air Force must improve their second-half execution. Consistently strong starts are undone by poor offensive production late in games. Enhanced bench depth and better ball movement can mitigate this issue.

Why is Fresno State struggling defensively?
Fresno State’s defensive woes stem from an inability to contest shots effectively, as evidenced by their high points allowed per game. Improved perimeter defense and tighter rotations are critical for improvement.

What betting trends favor the over?
Both teams have consistently hit the over in recent games, driven by weak defenses and relatively high offensive outputs compared to their averages.

By analyzing player performance, team metrics, and betting trends, this prediction offers a thorough perspective on what to expect from the Air Force vs. Fresno State game. Use this guide to make an informed and strategic betting decision for January 17.