Saints vs Titans Betting Preview: Predictions & Odds

The New Orleans Saints venture into Nissan Stadium this Sunday afternoon with momentum on their side, having won three consecutive games under first-year head coach Kellen Moore. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans are looking to build on their surprising victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16. While neither team is playoff-bound, this matchup carries significant draft implications and features two young quarterbacks eager to prove their worth.

New Orleans has gone 5-10 this season but has covered the spread in each of their three consecutive victories, demonstrating they’re finishing strong despite the disappointing campaign. Current odds have the Saints favored by 2.5 points with a total set at 39.5, making this one of the lowest-scoring projections in Week 17.

Breaking Down the New Orleans Saints’ Late-Season Surge

The Saints have transformed their season over the past three weeks, defeating Tampa Bay, Carolina, and the New York Jets by an average margin of 10.3 points. Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough has been instrumental in this turnaround, completing 66.5 percent of his throws for 1,792 yards with seven touchdowns against five interceptions through the season.

Shough’s development has exceeded expectations since being selected in the 2025 draft. His connection with wide receiver Chris Olave has been particularly effective, as Olave and tight end Juwan Johnson have combined for 1,777 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns this season. Last week against New York, Olave posted career highs with 16 targets.

The Saints’ rushing attack, while modest at 92.8 yards per contest, has been efficient when needed. Alvin Kamara leads the ground game with 471 yards and one touchdown, though his availability for Sunday remains questionable due to a knee injury that has sidelined him for four games.

Defensively, New Orleans has been exceptional in protecting fourth-quarter leads. The Saints rank first in the NFL in fourth-quarter opponent points per game, allowing just 3.3 points. Veteran linebacker Demario Davis anchors the defense with 131 tackles, while defensive end Cameron Jordan has contributed 8.5 sacks. The secondary has been opportunistic, with cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry recording three interceptions.

Tennessee Titans: Finding Identity with Cam Ward

The Titans’ season has been turbulent, posting just three wins through 15 games. However, there’s growing optimism around second-year quarterback Cam Ward, who has shown significant progress recently. Over his last three games, Ward has completed passes for six touchdowns with just one turnover, posting a 97.9 passer rating while Tennessee averaged 27 points per game.

Ward has completed 60.2 percent of his passes for 2,866 yards with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions. His primary targets include tight end Chig Okonkwo and wide receiver Elic Ayomanor, who have combined for 931 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Gunnar Helm has been a reliable possession receiver with 43 catches.

The Titans’ ground attack has been a bright spot, averaging 93.6 yards per game. Running back Tony Pollard has emerged as a workhorse, accumulating 949 yards and five touchdowns. Pollard has surpassed the 100-yard rushing mark in three consecutive games and scored touchdowns in the two weeks prior to Week 16. His backfield partner, Tyjae Spears, has been effective in both phases, contributing 263 rushing yards and 256 receiving yards.

Tennessee’s defense has struggled throughout the season, allowing 26.9 points and 341.7 yards per game. Linebacker Cedric Gray leads the team with 144 tackles, while defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons has been disruptive with nine sacks. The Titans rank last in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage at 32.0% and worst in fourth-down percentage defense at 75.0%, indicating persistent situational struggles.

Key Betting Trends and Statistical Insights

Saints Trends That Matter

New Orleans has demonstrated remarkable consistency when protecting leads and covering spreads recently. The team has covered in five of their last six games overall and is 2-1 straight-up and against the spread this season as a favorite.

Some concerning trends for Saints backers include their first-quarter struggles. New Orleans ranks 32nd in the NFL in first-quarter points per game, averaging just 1.9 points. They’ve lost the first quarter in four of their last five Sunday games against teams with losing records and have fallen behind at halftime in six of their last seven road contests.

However, the Saints have been profitable in specific situations. They’ve won each of their last four December road games against AFC opponents and covered the spread in each of their last four Sunday games. The road team has also won the first quarter in each of their last three Week 17 games for New Orleans.

Titans Trends to Consider

Tennessee is 9-23 against the spread since the start of last season, representing the worst ATS record in the NFL during that span. This persistent inability to cover spreads should give bettors pause when considering backing Tennessee.

The Titans are just 1-7 at home this season and have failed to cover in each of their last nine games as underdogs following a win. They’ve also lost each of their last 11 Sunday games against opponents on winning streaks, which directly applies to this matchup against New Orleans.

Tennessee has lost the first half in each of their last four games following a victory, suggesting they struggle with momentum maintenance. They also haven’t won consecutive games since Weeks 10-11 of the 2022 season, an astonishing drought spanning over two years.

The Titans have covered the spread in four of their last five home games, providing some hope for those considering the underdog. Additionally, Tennessee has been profitable on totals, with the over hitting in 12 of their last 20 games.

Total Points Analysis: Over or Under?

The total for this game sits at 39.5 points, one of the lowest on the Week 17 slate. Both offenses have been inconsistent throughout the season, with New Orleans averaging 17.0 points per game (29th in NFL) and Tennessee at 16.7 points per game.

However, recent trends suggest offensive improvement from both squads. The Saints have scored 20 or more points in three consecutive games, while Ward’s Titans have averaged 27 points over their last three contests. Each of the Saints’ last six games following a win have gone under the total, and seven of Tennessee’s last eight home games after victories have also stayed under.

Tennessee’s running backs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears have averaged 161 rushing yards over the last three games and face New Orleans’ injury-depleted 23rd-ranked rushing defense. This matchup advantage could lead to clock control and extended drives, which might keep scoring down.

Player Props Worth Watching

Saints Player Props

Taysom Hill has been productive in Week 17 historically, scoring touchdowns in five of his last six appearances during the final week of the regular season. He’s also recorded 44 or more rushing and receiving yards in each of the Saints’ last four games as road favorites against AFC opponents.

Juwan Johnson has been reliable when New Orleans is favored, recording 46 or more receiving yards in three of the Saints’ last four games in such situations. With Olave drawing defensive attention, Johnson could find favorable matchups over the middle.

Linebacker Pete Werner has been exceptional creating turnovers, ranking tied for first in the league with three fumbles recovered this season. Against a Titans offense prone to mistakes, Werner presents value in defensive prop markets.

Titans Player Props

Cam Ward has recorded 21 or more completions in each of the Titans’ last four games at Nissan Stadium and surpassed 194 passing yards in three of those four contests. Ward has also thrown multiple touchdown passes in three straight games, making over 1.5 passing touchdowns an appealing prop.

Tyjae Spears has been consistent at home, recording 18 or more receiving yards in each of his last seven appearances at Nissan Stadium. He’s also rushed for 27 or more yards in each of Tennessee’s last six home games as slight underdogs. Heading into Week 17, Spears ranks first amongst qualified players for catch rate at 90.2% this season.

Tight end Chig Okonkwo has recorded 29 or more combined rushing and receiving yards in each of the Titans’ last four games at Nissan Stadium, making him a reliable option for scrimmage yardage props.

Chimere Dike has found the end zone in each of Tennessee’s last two games as underdogs against teams with losing records. Given the matchup profile, Dike presents anytime touchdown scorer value.

Matchup Factors and Game Script Prediction

This game features contrasting styles with fascinating quarterback development storylines. Shough has demonstrated poise and accuracy for New Orleans, while Ward has shown explosive playmaking ability for Tennessee. Both quarterbacks are playing with increasing confidence, which could lead to a more competitive game than the low total suggests.

The Saints’ defensive efficiency in the fourth quarter gives them a distinct advantage in close games. Their ability to protect leads has been the difference in their winning streak, and Tennessee’s inability to win consecutive games suggests they may struggle to maintain momentum if they fall behind.

Home-field advantage typically matters, but the Titans are just 1-7 at Nissan Stadium this season. The sparse crowds and lack of energy in Nashville could negate any home benefit.

The Saints’ offensive line has protected Shough well during the winning streak, and Tennessee’s pass rush, while featuring Simmons’ nine sacks, hasn’t been consistent enough to disrupt opposing offenses regularly. New Orleans should be able to establish enough offensive rhythm to control the game.

Expert Prediction and Best Bets

Straight-Up Prediction: Saints 24, Titans 20

Best Bet: New Orleans Saints -2.5 (-110)

The Saints have found their identity over the past three weeks and are the more complete team in this matchup. While Tennessee’s upset victory over Kansas City was impressive, it came against a Chiefs team that had already clinched the top seed and was playing without full intensity. New Orleans has covered in every game during their winning streak, and their fourth-quarter defensive dominance gives them the edge in close contests.

The Titans’ inability to win consecutive games since 2022 is a staggering trend that’s difficult to overlook. Tennessee has had multiple opportunities to build momentum this season but has repeatedly failed to capitalize. Their home record of 1-7 indicates Nissan Stadium provides no advantage.

Alternative Bet: Over 39.5 (-110)

While both teams have gone under in their recent post-win games, the offensive talent on display suggests this total is set too low. Both quarterbacks are playing with increased confidence, and the improved offensive output from both squads over the past few weeks indicates the defenses may struggle. Ward has averaged 27 points per game over Tennessee’s last three contests, and New Orleans has consistently scored 20-plus during their streak. A combined 40 points seems achievable given the matchup dynamics.

Insights

Can the Saints extend their winning streak to four games for the first time since 2020?

Absolutely. New Orleans has found sustainable success under Kellen Moore’s offensive system, and Tyler Shough continues developing weekly. Their defensive performance in critical situations gives them the formula to win close games, which this matchup projects to be. The Saints’ experience in December road games against AFC opponents (4-0 in recent years) demonstrates their comfort in these situations.

Is Cam Ward’s recent surge sustainable moving forward?

Ward’s recent improvement appears legitimate rather than statistical noise. His decision-making has improved significantly, evidenced by throwing just one turnover across his last three games after struggling with seven turnovers in his first three starts. The Titans’ offensive system is beginning to complement his skill set, and the running game’s effectiveness with Pollard and Spears reduces pressure on Ward to carry the offense entirely.

Should bettors trust the historically low 39.5-point total?

The total warrants skepticism. Both offenses have shown capability recently despite season-long struggles. Defensive vulnerabilities exist on both sides—New Orleans ranks 23rd against the run, and Tennessee allows 26.9 points per game. The combination of improving quarterback play and defensive liabilities suggests the under might be a trap. However, situational trends showing both teams going under following wins cannot be ignored entirely.

What’s the most significant factor determining this game’s outcome?

The most crucial element is which team establishes offensive rhythm first. New Orleans’ first-quarter woes are well-documented, but Tennessee’s inability to maintain momentum in first halves following wins is equally concerning. Whichever team scores first will likely dictate game flow and force the opponent into unfamiliar territory. The Saints’ experience winning close games gives them an edge if the contest remains tight into the fourth quarter.

Are there any injury concerns that could impact the betting line?

Alvin Kamara’s knee injury status remains the primary concern for New Orleans. If Kamara cannot play, the Saints’ rushing attack becomes more predictable, potentially allowing Tennessee’s defense to focus on stopping Shough through the air. However, Taysom Hill has proven capable of filling the versatile role Kamara typically occupies. Tennessee hasn’t reported significant injuries, though their defensive struggles persist regardless of personnel health.