Giants vs Dolphins- Breakdown and Prediction
October 6, 2023
When the Tampa Bay Lightning (17-11-2) travel to face the New Jersey Devils (17-12-1) on Thursday evening, December 11th at the Prudential Center in Newark, both teams will be seeking to build momentum after snapping frustrating losing streaks. This Eastern Conference showdown carries significant implications for playoff positioning, with Tampa Bay holding a slight edge in the standings despite recent struggles.
The betting market reflects a tight contest, with Tampa Bay listed at -116 on the moneyline and New Jersey coming in as slight home underdogs at -104. The total has been set at 6 goals, creating interesting opportunities for savvy bettors looking to capitalize on these teams’ recent offensive inconsistencies.
The Lightning showed signs of life in their most recent outing, demolishing Montreal 6-1 in a performance that suggested their offensive firepower remains intact despite recent challenges. Tampa Bay exploded for four consecutive goals to start the game before adding two more insurance markers in the final period. Jonas Johansson delivered a stellar performance between the pipes, stopping 26 of 27 shots for an impressive .963 save percentage.
However, context matters significantly here. Prior to that breakthrough victory, Tampa Bay had endured back-to-back shutout losses against Toronto and the Islanders, both ending 2-0. The Lightning have managed just one victory in their last five contests, raising legitimate questions about consistency. Currently sitting atop the Atlantic Division with 36 points, Tampa Bay has demonstrated they can compete with elite opponents but haven’t maintained the dominant form many expected.
The statistical profile paints an interesting picture: Tampa Bay averages 3.13 goals per game while allowing only 2.53 against, ranking among the league’s better defensive units. Their power play has converted at 16.3%, while their penalty kill operates at a solid 86.5% efficiency rate. These numbers suggest a well-balanced team that should theoretically handle business on the road.
Nikita Kucherov continues his elite production with 13 goals and 23 assists through 30 games, while Brandon Hagel has emerged as a secondary scoring threat with 17 goals and 12 assists. The projected starter, Jonas Johansson, carries a 6-5-0 record with a 2.53 goals against average and .907 save percentage—respectable numbers for a backup thrust into expanded duties.
The Devils managed to escape with a crucial 4-3 victory over Ottawa in their last appearance, rallying after trailing early. New Jersey found themselves down 2-1 but showed resilience by tying the contest at three goals in the middle frame before scoring the decisive third-period marker. Jacob Markstrom made 35 saves on 38 shots, posting a .921 save percentage in the winning effort despite being outshot 38-32.
This victory provided temporary relief from what had been a concerning stretch. Prior to defeating Ottawa, New Jersey had dropped five of six games, including losses to Boston (4-1) and Vegas (3-0). The Devils currently occupy sixth position in the Metropolitan Division with 35 points—just one behind Tampa Bay—but their recent form suggests a team searching for identity.
New Jersey’s season averages tell a cautionary tale: 2.87 goals scored per game against 3.07 allowed. While their power play has clicked at 22.4% (significantly better than Tampa Bay’s), their penalty kill sits at just 78.0%, representing a potential vulnerability the Lightning could exploit. The Devils have struggled to maintain offensive consistency, scoring one goal or fewer in three of their last four contests.
Nico Hischier leads the Devils with 10 goals and 16 assists, while Jesper Bratt has contributed five goals and 21 assists, serving primarily as a playmaker. Markstrom, the projected starter, owns an 8-6-1 record but carries concerning numbers: a 3.48 goals against average and .880 save percentage. These statistics suggest defensive reliability issues that Tampa Bay’s skilled forwards could exploit.
The betting trends for this matchup reveal fascinating patterns that could influence your wagering decisions. Underdogs have thrived against Tampa Bay recently, winning five of the Lightning’s last six games overall. More specifically, Tampa Bay has dropped four of their last five contests when playing as favorites, suggesting the betting market may be overvaluing their status.
Historical data at the Prudential Center strongly favors New Jersey. Underdogs have covered the puck line in seven of Tampa Bay’s last eight visits to Newark. Additionally, the Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven Thursday games when favored—a highly specific but noteworthy trend given Thursday’s game date.
Situational analysis reveals another concerning pattern for Tampa Bay: they’ve lost the second period in four of their last five games as road favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents. This middle-frame vulnerability could prove decisive in a tight contest.
The total of 6 goals presents an intriguing puzzle given both teams’ recent scoring difficulties. Five of Tampa Bay’s last six road games against Metropolitan Division opponents have stayed under the total goals line, suggesting defensive-minded affairs when they travel east.
Conversely, four of New Jersey’s last five home games against Atlantic Division opponents have exceeded the total, indicating the Prudential Center atmosphere tends to produce offense in these matchups. These contradictory trends create uncertainty for total bettors.
Period-specific data offers additional insight: the “Over 1.5 Goals Period 3” market has connected in each of New Jersey’s last nine games following road victories. Similarly, the “Over 1.5 Goals Period 1” market has hit in four of Tampa Bay’s last five games as road favorites against the Devils, suggesting strong starts from the Lightning.
Several player prop opportunities merit attention based on historical performance and recent form:
New Jersey Devils Player Props:
Tampa Bay Lightning Player Props:
These player-specific trends provide alternative betting avenues beyond traditional moneyline and spread wagering.
Tampa Bay enters this contest dealing with significant injury concerns that could dramatically impact their performance. The Lightning are without several key contributors, including defensive stalwarts whose absences create lineup instability. These injuries have forced depth players into expanded roles, potentially exposing matchup vulnerabilities against New Jersey’s home attack.
New Jersey also faces injury challenges, but playing at home typically helps teams manage these situations more effectively. The Devils can control matchups and utilize last change to maximize their available personnel’s effectiveness.
This matchup presents as the proverbial “coin flip” that oddsmakers’ tight lines suggest. Both teams are 9-4-2 (Tampa Bay) and 9-4-1 (New Jersey) in their respective home/road splits, indicating similar performance levels in these environments. The offensive struggles both clubs have experienced recently point toward a lower-scoring affair, despite the 6-goal total.
The Devils possess several advantages that tip the scales: home ice, better recent puck line performance, and Tampa Bay’s documented struggles as road favorites. The Lightning’s injury situation adds further uncertainty to their ability to execute consistently for 60 minutes in a hostile environment.
New Jersey has demonstrated resilience by bouncing back from adversity in recent games. While they haven’t been dominant, the Devils have shown the ability to grind out victories when circumstances demand it. The Prudential Center crowd should provide additional energy, particularly on a Thursday night when atmosphere can influence momentum shifts.
Tampa Bay’s 6-1 victory over Montreal, while impressive on paper, came against a significantly inferior opponent and shouldn’t drastically alter our assessment. The Lightning remain a talented squad capable of beating anyone, but their road record as favorites and specific struggles in Newark suggest caution backing them in this spot.
Final Pick: New Jersey Devils Moneyline (+104)
The plus-money value on the home underdog represents the optimal play. While Tampa Bay possesses championship pedigree and star power, the combination of New Jersey’s home-ice advantage, Tampa Bay’s injury concerns, and the Lightning’s documented struggles as road favorites make the Devils the sharper investment. This game likely stays close throughout, with New Jersey’s desperation for points in a tight Metropolitan Division race providing the edge needed to secure victory.
For bettors seeking additional value, consider exploring the Devils on the puck line (+1.5 at favorable odds) as a safety net, or investigating some of the player prop angles outlined above, particularly Jack Hughes’ assist streak and Nikita Kucherov’s consistent point production at this venue.
Will Tampa Bay’s recent blowout win over Montreal carry momentum into this game?
While the 6-1 victory provides a confidence boost, Montreal represents one of the league’s weaker teams. The Lightning’s previous two shutout losses demonstrate inconsistency. Road games against Metropolitan Division opponents have proven challenging for Tampa Bay, particularly at the Prudential Center where historical trends favor New Jersey. The quality of opponent matters significantly when evaluating momentum.
How much should Jacob Markstrom’s statistics concern Devils bettors?
Markstrom’s 3.48 goals against average and .880 save percentage are concerning on paper, but his recent performance against Ottawa (.921 save percentage) suggests improvement. Home goalies typically perform better with crowd support and last change advantages. If New Jersey’s defense can limit Tampa Bay’s quality chances, Markstrom won’t need to be spectacular—merely adequate.
Can New Jersey’s power play exploit Tampa Bay’s penalty kill?
New Jersey’s 22.4% power play conversion rate significantly exceeds Tampa Bay’s 86.5% penalty kill success rate. If the Devils draw penalties—particularly against a Lightning team prone to taking them in hostile environments—they possess the special teams advantage to capitalize. This could prove decisive in a close game.
Should bettors be concerned about the low total of 6 goals?
Both teams have demonstrated offensive inconsistency recently, with each scoring one goal or fewer in three of their last four games. The under has hit frequently in Tampa Bay’s road games against Metropolitan opponents. However, New Jersey’s home games against Atlantic Division teams have tended toward higher scoring. This creates uncertainty, making the total a risky proposition compared to side betting.
What makes Thursday night significant for this matchup?
Tampa Bay has failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven Thursday games as favorites—a remarkably specific but statistically significant trend. Thursday night games often feature different lineup considerations, travel fatigue factors, and scheduling quirks. This trend, combined with Jack Hughes’ perfect point-production record in Thursday Eastern Conference games, suggests day-of-week matters more than casual observers might expect.
get the goals listing , players listing , and related
news Roy Miller
Wao woo commerce offering 3 different unique
listing styles of products. Roy Miller
We offer expert sports betting advice, data-driven insights, and winning strategies for enthusiasts and bettors. With a focus on analytics, trends, and expert picks, we empower users to make informed decisions, turning sports knowledge into profitable outcomes. Your go-to source for smarter sports wagering.