Bears vs Packers Betting Preview: Predictions & Odds

The NFL’s oldest rivalry takes center stage Sunday afternoon as the Chicago Bears (9-3) travel to face the Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) at iconic Lambeau Field. With kickoff scheduled for 4:25 PM ET, this Week 14 NFC North clash carries massive playoff implications that could reshape the conference standings. The Bears currently hold the top spot in both the division and the entire NFC, but a loss would flip the script entirely, handing the Packers control of the North while Chicago tumbles down the conference pecking order.

This matchup represents a fascinating collision between Chicago’s resurgent offense under first-year head coach Ben Johnson and Green Bay’s methodical, efficient attack led by Matt LaFleur and quarterback Jordan Love. The betting market has installed the Packers as substantial favorites at -6.5, with the total sitting at 44.5 points—creating intriguing opportunities for sharp bettors who recognize value when they see it.

Current Betting Lines and Market Movement

The spread has experienced significant movement throughout the week, opening at Green Bay -3.5 before ballooning to the current -6.5. This three-point jump reflects heavy action on the home team, with public bettors gravitating toward the Packers’ historical dominance in this rivalry. The moneyline has similarly shifted from -179 to -303, while the total has dropped from an opening 46.5 down to 44.5 points.

Current Odds (as of December 7, 2024):

• Spread: Packers -6.5 (-110)

• Moneyline: Packers -303 | Bears +235

• Over/Under: 44.5 points (-110)

Based on the current moneyline, Green Bay carries an implied win probability of 75.2%, though removing the bookmaker’s vigorish reveals Chicago’s fair odds closer to 29.4%. These numbers suggest oddsmakers expect a comfortable Packers victory, but the Bears’ recent performances indicate this line may be inflated.

Chicago Bears Analysis: Riding High Into Lambeau

The Bears have emerged as one of the NFL’s most compelling storylines in 2024. After stumbling to an 0-2 start, Chicago has rattled off nine victories in their last ten games, with five consecutive wins heading into Sunday. This remarkable turnaround has been fueled by a balanced offensive attack and an opportunistic defense that leads the league with 17 interceptions and a plus-17 turnover differential.

Offensive Firepower

Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams continues his development, completing 58.1% of his passes for 2,722 yards with a 17:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. While his completion percentage doesn’t jump off the page, Williams has dramatically improved his decision-making and mobility compared to his college days. He’s been sacked just 19 times this season (1.6 per game)—a massive improvement from the 68 sacks he absorbed in 2024 (4.0 per game).

The aerial attack features a dynamic receiving duo in DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, who have combined for 1,163 yards and nine touchdowns. Tight end Colston Loveland has emerged as a reliable safety valve with 31 receptions. However, reports indicate Odunze may be unavailable for this contest, potentially limiting Chicago’s vertical passing game.

Where the Bears truly excel is on the ground. Chicago’s rushing attack averages an impressive 153.8 yards per game, ranking first in offensive rush success rate. The backfield tandem of D’Andre Swift (774 yards, 5 TDs) and Kyle Monangai has proven devastating. In last week’s 24-15 road victory over Philadelphia, both running backs eclipsed the 100-yard mark—Monangai with 130 and Swift with 125. Combined, the duo has accumulated 1,365 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 4.9 yards per carry.

This ground game prowess will be tested against Green Bay’s eighth-ranked rush defense, which allows 98.3 yards per game. However, the Packers recently lost defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt to a season-ending ankle injury, weakening their interior defensive line depth. With Kenny Clark also traded to Dallas in the Micah Parsons deal, Green Bay is now relying on their third and fourth tackles from training camp—Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks.

Defensive Excellence

Chicago’s defense has been the unsung hero of their winning streak. While their season-long numbers show 25.8 points allowed per game, the unit has tightened considerably in recent weeks, surrendering 20 or fewer points in three of their last four contests. This includes impressive road performances against Minnesota and Philadelphia.

Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds leads the Bears with 89 tackles, providing sideline-to-sideline coverage. Edge rusher Montez Sweat has generated consistent pressure with 7.5 sacks, while safety Kevin Byard III tops the NFL with six interceptions. Byard’s two-pick performance against the Raiders in Week 4 set a season-high for any player heading into Week 14.

The Bears’ ball-hawking secondary will look to capitalize on any mistakes from Jordan Love, who has been remarkably careful with the football this season with just three interceptions.

Green Bay Packers Breakdown: Home Cooking at Lambeau

The Packers enter Sunday riding a three-game winning streak, including impressive divisional victories over Minnesota (23-6) and a Thanksgiving triumph at Detroit (31-24 as three-point underdogs). Green Bay has won six of their last eight games, positioning themselves perfectly to reclaim the NFC North lead with a victory.

Offensive Efficiency

Jordan Love has blossomed into one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks, completing 67% of his passes for 2,794 yards with a stellar 19:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His four-touchdown performance against the Lions showcased his ability to execute in high-leverage situations. Love’s ball security—throwing just three picks all season—ranks among the NFL’s elite.

The Packers rank first in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage at 49.3%, a testament to their offensive creativity and execution. Tight end Tucker Kraft and receiver Romeo Doubs have emerged as Love’s primary targets, combining for 1,031 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Christian Watson has added 21 receptions, though his availability for Sunday remains uncertain as he works back from injury.

Green Bay’s ground game averages 117.2 yards per contest, with Josh Jacobs leading the charge with 731 yards and 11 touchdowns. Jacobs has shown signs of returning to his Pro Bowl form, averaging 4.6 yards per carry over the last four games with two 80+ yard performances. The Packers’ commitment to establishing the run—actually running on a higher percentage of plays than Chicago—should be amplified against a Bears defense allowing 5.2 yards per carry, tied for third-worst in the NFL.

Notably, two different Packers have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a single game this season, tied for the most in the NFL entering Week 14. This backfield versatility with Emanuel Wilson (who has scored in each of the last two games as a favorite) gives offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich multiple weapons to deploy.

Defensive Strength

Green Bay’s defense has been the backbone of their success, allowing just 18.8 points and 284.8 yards per game. Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper leads with 86 tackles, while the acquisition of Micah Parsons has transformed their pass rush. Parsons has been dominant with 12.5 sacks, including six sacks over the last three games. He became the first player in NFL history to record at least 12 sacks in each of his first five seasons—a remarkable achievement that continues with his new team.

Safety Evan Williams provides the last line of defense with three interceptions, though he’ll need to be at his best against Williams and the Bears’ play-action attack.

The Packers rank outside the top 10 in opponent rush success rate, which could be exploited by Chicago’s ground-and-pound approach. This represents Green Bay’s most significant defensive vulnerability heading into Sunday.

Key Matchups and X-Factors

Bears Rushing Attack vs Packers Front Seven

This matchup will likely decide the game. Chicago’s elite rushing offense (first in success rate) faces a Packers run defense depleted by injuries. The loss of Wyatt creates vulnerability in the middle, exactly where Swift and Monangai excel. If the Bears can establish the run early, they’ll control the tempo and keep Love on the sideline.

Swift has been particularly effective as a road underdog, scoring touchdowns in six of Chicago’s last seven such games. He’s also rushed for 63+ yards in each of the Bears’ last six road underdog games against NFC opponents—a trend worth noting for prop bettors.

Jordan Love vs Chicago Secondary

While Love has been exceptional with ball security, he faces the NFL’s most opportunistic defense. Chicago’s 17 interceptions lead the league, and they’ve forced turnovers in all but two games this season—including 10 takeaways during their five-game winning streak.

Kevin Byard’s veteran savvy and instincts make him particularly dangerous when quarterbacks try to attack downfield. Love will need to be patient and avoid forcing throws into tight windows, especially in the red zone where mistakes are magnified.

Third Down Battle

Green Bay’s league-leading 49.3% third-down conversion rate meets Chicago’s improving defense. The Packers’ ability to extend drives has been crucial to their success, keeping their defense fresh and wearing down opponents. If the Bears can get Green Bay off the field on third down, they’ll have more opportunities to control possession with their ground game.

Historical Trends and Betting Angles

The historical data presents a fascinating dichotomy. Green Bay has dominated this rivalry, winning 26 of 31 meetings since 2010 and going 11-1 straight up in the last 12 matchups (8-2 ATS). The Packers have also won each of their last nine Week 14 home games and covered in three straight games against NFC North opponents.

However, Chicago’s recent form as an underdog cannot be ignored. The Bears are 5-1 straight up and against the spread in their last six games as underdogs, demonstrating their ability to rise to the occasion when doubted. They’ve covered in each of their last four games as underdogs against NFC opponents and have won each of their last six games against NFC competition.

Situational Advantages

Favoring Green Bay:

• Bears have lost 10 consecutive games against NFC North opponents on winning streaks

• Packers have won the first half in each of their last four December games as favorites against NFC opponents

• Home team has covered in each of the Bears’ last six Week 14 games

Favoring Chicago:

• Packers have lost four straight games against NFC North opponents on winning streaks

• Packers have failed to cover in each of their last four games as favorites without Christian Watson

• Packers have lost the first half in four of their last five December games against NFC North opponents

These contradictory trends suggest both teams have viable paths to success, making this a genuinely competitive matchup despite the significant spread.

Player Props Worth Watching

Chicago Bears Props

D’Andre Swift Anytime Touchdown (+175): Swift scored his first rushing touchdown since late October against Philadelphia and appears locked into a featured role. He’s logged 18+ carries in two of the last three games, and his touchdown scoring rate as a road underdog (six TDs in seven games) makes this an attractive proposition.

Caleb Williams 207+ Passing Yards: Williams has eclipsed this mark in four of the Bears’ last five Sunday road games. He’s also recorded 18+ completions in eight of Chicago’s last nine games as underdogs against NFC North opponents.

DJ Moore 42+ Receiving Yards: Moore has hit this modest number in each of the Bears’ last eight games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0). His consistency makes this a safer prop play.

Green Bay Packers Props

Josh Jacobs Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-110): Jacobs faces a Bears run defense allowing 5.2 yards per carry. He’s averaged 4.6 yards per carry over the last four games with two 80+ yard performances.

Romeo Doubs 44+ Receiving Yards: Doubs has eclipsed this mark in six of the Packers’ last seven Sunday games, establishing himself as Love’s most reliable target.

Jordan Love 2+ Passing Touchdowns: Love has multiple touchdown passes in eight games this season and should find success against a Bears defense that can be exploited through the air despite their interception prowess.

Total Points Analysis

The over/under of 44.5 represents significant movement from the opening 46.5, with sharp money driving the line downward. Several factors support the under:

1. Defensive improvements: Both teams have shown defensive fortitude recently, with Chicago allowing 20 or fewer points in three of four games.

1. Receiver injuries: Both teams are managing significant receiver health issues that could limit explosive play potential.

1. Weather and field position: December games at Lambeau often favor defense and running games.

1. Historical precedent: Seven of the Packers’ last eight home games following a win have gone under the total.

Conversely, six of the Bears’ last seven Sunday road games have gone over. Chicago ranks 8-4 on overs this season, though three of their last four games finished under.

Expert Prediction and Best Bet

Despite the Packers’ historical dominance and home-field advantage, this line feels disrespectful to a Bears team that has proven its mettle repeatedly. Chicago’s 9-3 record isn’t smoke and mirrors—this is a fundamentally sound team with an elite rushing attack, opportunistic defense, and a quarterback who manages games intelligently.

The spread movement from -3.5 to -6.5 represents an overcorrection based on public perception rather than analytical reality. While Green Bay is the better team on paper and should be favored at home, laying nearly a touchdown against a team on a five-game winning streak that includes road victories over Philadelphia (as 7.5-point underdogs) and Minnesota seems excessive.

Chicago’s rush-first identity exploits Green Bay’s most significant defensive weakness, particularly with Wyatt sidelined. The Packers’ interior defensive line depth has been compromised, creating lanes for Swift and Monangai to control the game’s tempo. If the Bears establish the run early, they’ll dictate the flow and keep the game close throughout.

Additionally, the Bears’ 5-1 ATS record in their last six games as underdogs demonstrates their consistent ability to exceed expectations. They’ve covered in eight of their last ten games overall, suggesting this team knows how to perform against the number.

The Pick

Chicago Bears +6.5 (-110): This represents the best value on the board. While Green Bay may ultimately prevail at Lambeau, the Bears have the coaching, talent, and momentum to keep this within a field goal. Chicago’s ground game will keep them in the fight, and one or two turnovers forced by their elite ball-hawking secondary could swing the game entirely.

Secondary play: Under 44.5 (-110): Both defenses have improved recently, and the loss of key receivers on both sides should limit scoring opportunities. The over/under drop suggests sharp money recognizes this as a potential defensive battle.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 23, Bears 21 (Bears cover, game goes under)

This game represents everything that makes NFL betting fascinating—public perception versus analytical reality, historical trends versus current form, and home-field advantage versus momentum. The Bears won’t go quietly into the Lambeau night.

Betting Insights

Why might the Packers fail to cover the spread?

The spread has inflated due to heavy public action on Green Bay based on historical dominance. However, Chicago’s current form—winners of nine of their last ten games—represents a fundamentally different Bears team than Green Bay has faced in recent years. The Packers’ defensive line injuries create exploitable matchups for Chicago’s elite rushing attack, and the Bears have consistently exceeded expectations as underdogs this season.

Should bettors take the over or under in this matchup?

The under 44.5 offers more value. The line has moved significantly from its 46.5 opening, and both teams have tightened defensively in recent weeks. Chicago has gone under in three of their last four games, while seven of Green Bay’s last eight home games following a victory finished under the total. Weather conditions and receiver injuries should further limit scoring potential.

What makes this game significant beyond the spread?

This represents arguably the most consequential game of Week 14. The winner gains crucial ground in both the NFC North race and conference playoff seeding. With the Bears currently holding the top seed in the entire NFC, a loss would drop them significantly while elevating Green Bay. The teams meet again in Week 18, making Sunday’s result even more important for tiebreaker scenarios.

Which player prop offers the best value?

D’Andre Swift anytime touchdown scorer at +175 stands out. Swift scored last week against Philadelphia and has found the end zone in six of the Bears’ last seven games as road underdogs. With Kyle Monangai potentially limited or unavailable, Swift should receive an elevated workload against a Packers run defense weakened by injuries. The combination of volume, matchup, and recent scoring form makes this the prop with the highest expected value.

How should bettors approach this rivalry game?

Rivalry games often defy expectations and historical trends. While the Packers have dominated this series, sharp bettors recognize that past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The key is identifying which team has the stylistic matchup advantage. Chicago’s rushing attack versus Green Bay’s depleted defensive line represents the most significant mismatch. Bettors should focus on the Bears’ ability to control tempo and clock, which naturally keeps games closer than the spread suggests.