Giants vs Dolphins- Breakdown and Prediction
October 6, 2023
When the Baltimore Ravens travel to Hard Rock Stadium this Thursday night to face the Miami Dolphins, both teams will be desperate to salvage what’s been a disappointing 2024 season. The Ravens enter with a 2-5 record while the Dolphins sit at 2-6, making this one of the most critical early-season showdowns for two franchises that entered with playoff aspirations.
Baltimore dominated their last meeting in 2023, winning 56-19, but both teams look vastly different this year. The Ravens finally showed signs of life in their convincing victory over Chicago, while Miami shocked the Falcons with a statement 34-10 road win. Now the question becomes: can either team build momentum on a short week?
The Ravens’ struggles this season have been well-documented, with injuries decimating their roster at crucial positions. After dropping four of their last five games heading into their Chicago matchup, Baltimore desperately needed a spark. They found it despite playing without their franchise quarterback for extended stretches.
Lamar Jackson has been magnificent when healthy, completing 71.6 percent of his passes for 869 yards with an impressive 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His connection with Zay Flowers and tight end Mark Andrews has produced 694 receiving yards and three touchdowns, while the addition of DeAndre Hopkins has added another dimension with 10 receptions.
Ravens head coach John Harbaugh has expressed confidence that Jackson will be ready for Thursday’s contest after missing the previous three games with a hamstring injury. His return couldn’t come at a better time, as Baltimore’s ground attack has been one of the few bright spots this season.
Running back Derrick Henry has been a workhorse, carrying the load with 510 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. The Ravens’ rushing attack averages a solid 133.4 yards per contest, giving them the capability to control the clock and take pressure off their struggling defense.
Defensively, Baltimore has been hemorrhaging points at an alarming rate. Allowing 30 points and 379.6 yards per game, they rank among the worst units in the league. Teddye Buchanan leads the team with 55 tackles, while Nnamdi Madubuike has recorded two sacks and Nate Wiggins has hauled in two interceptions. This defense will face a significant challenge against Miami’s explosive offensive weapons.
The Dolphins have endured a nightmare start, losing seven of their last nine games before their impressive victory in Atlanta. Despite the struggles, there are glimmers of hope that suggest this team can turn things around, especially when playing at Hard Rock Stadium.
Tua Tagovailoa entered Week 8 leading the NFL in interceptions but bounced back with a strong performance against Atlanta, throwing for 205 yards and four touchdowns while completing 76.9 percent of his passes. The talented signal-caller has accumulated 1,518 passing yards with 15 touchdowns against 10 interceptions this season, showcasing both his explosive potential and troubling turnover issues.
The dynamic duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill has combined for 769 receiving yards and five touchdowns, providing Tagovailoa with elite weapons on the perimeter. Meanwhile, De’Von Achane has emerged as a dual-threat sensation with 37 receptions to complement his work in the backfield.
Miami’s ground game averages 98.5 yards per contest, with Achane leading the charge with 539 yards and three touchdowns. On the defensive side, the Dolphins are allowing 26.9 points and 344.4 yards per game. Jordyn Brooks anchors the defense with a team-high 85 tackles, Bradley Chubb has recorded four sacks, and Minkah Fitzpatrick has picked off one pass.
The historical data presents a compelling case for the home underdogs in this Thursday night showdown. Dating back to Week 10 of 2021, Miami has been on a remarkable 7-0 ATS roll as an underdog of six points or more, demonstrating their ability to exceed expectations when disrespected by oddsmakers.
The Ravens have struggled mightily in specific situations that align perfectly with this matchup. They’ve lost their last three games as road favorites against AFC opponents and have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games against AFC competition overall. Even more concerning for Baltimore backers, they’ve lost the first quarter in each of their last two Thursday games against teams with losing records and have lost the first half in each of their last five Thursday road games.
Conversely, the Dolphins have dominated AFC North opponents at Hard Rock Stadium, winning eight of their last nine home games against the division. They’ve also covered the spread in five of their last six games when playing as underdogs on the East Coast, showing particular comfort in primetime home situations.
However, it’s not all sunshine for Miami. The Dolphins have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs following a win, and they’ve failed to cover in nine of those 10 contests. This troubling pattern could resurface after their impressive victory over Atlanta.
Despite their road struggles, the Ravens possess several statistical edges that suggest they can control this game. Baltimore has cashed in seven consecutive games when favored by more than six points, showing they can dominate inferior competition when fully healthy.
They’ve also won 10 of their last 11 Thursday games played on the East Coast, indicating they’re comfortable with the quick turnaround and travel.
The matchup advantages are clear: Miami is allowing 137 yards per game on the ground to opposing running backs, which plays directly into Baltimore’s strength. With Derrick Henry averaging 4.7 yards per carry and Jackson’s scrambling ability adding another dimension, the Ravens should be able to establish their physical running game early and often.
The Dolphins have also struggled defensively in the first half of games as underdogs against AFC North opponents, losing the opening 30 minutes in each of their last four such matchups. If Baltimore can jump out to an early lead, Miami may lack the firepower to mount a comeback.
The Over has hit in nine straight Dolphins home games at Hard Rock Stadium, with Miami scoring at least 27 points in eight consecutive home contests. The Ravens have been equally generous to Over bettors, going 19-5 to the Over since the 2024 campaign kicked off, including 6-1 this season.
Both defenses rank among the worst in the league, with Miami entering Week 8 last in EPA/Play and 30th in points allowed. Baltimore wasn’t much better before holding Chicago to just 16 points. However, that anomaly shouldn’t overshadow the trend of high-scoring affairs involving both teams.
With both offenses capable of explosive plays and neither defense able to consistently get stops, this game has all the makings of a shootout. The total opened at 50 points and has moved to 50.5 at most books, but even that number might not be high enough given the statistical profiles.
Henry has been automatic against AFC East opponents throughout his career. He’s scored at least one touchdown in each of his last 10 regular season appearances against the division and has scored two touchdowns in each of his last three such matchups. Henry has recorded 140+ rushing and receiving yards in five of his six appearances when his team was a road favorite with a total of at least 50.0 points.
Given Miami’s vulnerability against the run, Henry over 90.5 rushing yards and anytime touchdown scorer both present excellent value.
The Dolphins’ versatile back has been exceptional at home. He’s scored the first touchdown in three of Miami’s last four games and has recorded 101+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last four games at Hard Rock Stadium. He’s also found the end zone in each of Miami’s last eight home games, making him an automatic play for anytime touchdown scorer.
Achane has recorded 77+ rushing yards in each of Miami’s last four October games as underdogs against AFC opponents, and with the Ravens’ defense struggling to contain mobile backs, expect another big performance.
When healthy, Jackson has dominated this matchup historically. He’s recorded 238+ passing yards in each of the Ravens’ last four games against Miami and has recorded 39+ rushing yards in 14 of Baltimore’s last 15 road games. Jackson has hit the touchdown passes over in 13 of his last 15 games, making over 1.5 passing touchdowns an attractive option.
The Dolphins have already allowed a league-high four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, which plays perfectly into Jackson’s dual-threat skill set.
Tagovailoa has performed well at home in October, recording 234+ passing yards in six of his last seven October home appearances. He’s also recorded 27+ completions in each of his last five appearances following a win. Against a Ravens defense allowing 250.7 passing yards per game, Tagovailoa should have plenty of opportunities to air it out.
This matchup presents a fascinating dilemma for bettors. On paper, Baltimore should win this game comfortably with Jackson returning and their superior rushing attack facing Miami’s porous run defense. However, the situational spots all favor the Dolphins.
The spread opened at Ravens -7.5 with the game total set at 50.0, and while Baltimore has the talent advantage, laying more than a touchdown on the road with the league’s 28th-ranked total defense and 30th-ranked scoring defense feels uncomfortable.
Miami has proven they can score points at home, and despite their recent success, they continue to get disrespected by the betting public. The Dolphins have covered six of their last eight games as underdogs and seven of their last eight games when catching five or more points. Quick turnaround games on Thursday nights often produce unpredictable results, and home underdogs have historically performed well in these spots.
The Ravens are the better team on paper, but this feels like a classic trap game. Baltimore’s defensive issues haven’t been solved overnight, and even with Jackson back, asking them to cover a full touchdown on the road in a divisional-adjacent matchup is asking too much.
Expert Pick: Miami Dolphins +7.5
The smart money takes the points at home. Miami has enough offensive firepower to keep this game within one score, and if they can get out to an early lead, the Hard Rock Stadium crowd will make life difficult for the struggling Ravens defense. Baltimore may win this game outright, but expect Miami to cover the spread in what should be a high-scoring Thursday night affair.
For the total, the Over 50.5 presents exceptional value given both teams’ recent scoring trends and defensive deficiencies. This game has all the ingredients for a 60+ point explosion.
Will Lamar Jackson’s return immediately fix Baltimore’s offensive issues?
While Jackson’s presence undoubtedly elevates the Ravens’ ceiling, expecting him to be at 100% after missing three games with a hamstring injury is unrealistic. The coaching staff will likely manage his workload carefully, particularly his designed runs, which could limit Baltimore’s offensive explosiveness. However, his mere presence in the lineup forces Miami to account for the RPO game, opening lanes for Derrick Henry.
Can Tua Tagovailoa protect the football against Baltimore’s opportunistic defense?
This is the million-dollar question. Tagovailoa’s 10 interceptions through eight games have been killer, but his four-touchdown performance against Atlanta showed what he’s capable of when protected. Baltimore’s pass rush hasn’t been dominant this season, recording just modest sack numbers. If Miami’s offensive line can give Tagovailoa clean pockets, he has the weapons to exploit Baltimore’s secondary.
Which team has the bigger advantage: Baltimore’s run game or Miami’s passing attack?
Both represent significant mismatches. Miami allows 137 yards per game on the ground to running backs, which should favor Henry and Jackson’s ground assault. However, Miami’s passing attack with Hill and Waddle against Baltimore’s 28th-ranked passing defense might be the bigger mismatch. The team that establishes their strength early will likely control the game’s tempo.
Is this game a must-win for both franchises’ playoff hopes?
Absolutely. At 2-5 and 2-6 respectively, both teams are facing must-win scenarios for the remainder of the season. Despite the dreadful 2-5 start, Baltimore is still -110 to win the AFC North at FanDuel, showing the betting market’s confidence in their ability to turn things around. Miami needs every home game they can steal to have any chance at a Wild Card berth.
What’s the most valuable prop bet for this matchup?
De’Von Achane anytime touchdown scorer at plus odds presents exceptional value. He’s scored in eight consecutive home games and Miami will lean heavily on his versatility in crucial scoring situations. With Baltimore struggling to defend dual-threat backs, Achane should find paydirt at least once Thursday night.
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