Brewers vs Dodgers Betting Preview: Predictions & Odds
The National League Championship Series reaches a potential conclusion on Friday night as the Los Angeles Dodgers stand one victory away from their second consecutive World Series appearance. After dominating Milwaukee through three games, the defending champions look to complete a stunning sweep against the team that posted baseball’s best regular-season record. With first pitch scheduled for 8:38 PM EST at Dodger Stadium, this pivotal Game 4 matchup presents compelling betting opportunities despite the lopsided nature of the series.
Milwaukee enters this elimination game with their championship aspirations hanging by a thread, having managed just three total runs across the opening trio of contests. Los Angeles counters with baseball’s most electrifying two-way player taking the mound, setting the stage for what could be a historic clinching performance. Let’s break down the critical factors that should influence your wagering decisions for this crucial postseason showdown.
Milwaukee’s Offensive Crisis Deepens in Must-Win Scenario
The Brewers’ postseason journey has transformed into a nightmare at the plate, with their offensive production hitting historically low levels during this championship series. Through three NLCS games, Milwaukee has scratched out merely nine hits while their batters have returned to the dugout unsuccessful 29 times via strikeout. This anemic performance translates to averaging just one run per game against Los Angeles’ dominant pitching staff.
Examining Milwaukee’s broader playoff performance reveals an offense that’s consistently struggled to generate meaningful production. Over their eight postseason contests, the Brewers are slashing a paltry .199 batting average while manufacturing 25 runs total. They’ve managed 18 extra-base hits and stolen five bases, but have also struck out 63 times against just 25 walks drawn.
The injury situation compounds Milwaukee’s offensive woes significantly. Star outfielder Jackson Chourio, who entered the playoffs as the team’s hottest hitter with a .320 average and eight RBIs, exited Thursday night’s contest in the seventh inning after reaggravating a hamstring injury during a swing. His availability for Game 4 remains uncertain, potentially robbing the Brewers of their most productive bat when they can least afford to lose him.
William Contreras has provided the second-best offensive contribution for Milwaukee this postseason, hitting .222 with three extra-base knocks, three RBIs and five runs scored. However, even veteran Christian Yelich has been neutralized, managing only five hits—all singles—while drawing four walks. The absence of power and clutch hitting has left Milwaukee’s lineup looking completely overmatched against the Dodgers’ pitching arsenal.
Pitching Rotation Uncertainty Haunts Brewers’ Elimination Game
Milwaukee’s pitching staff enters Game 4 in a state of considerable uncertainty regarding their starting pitcher designation. After utilizing Jacob Misiorowski as the bulk pitcher on Thursday and Quinn Priester for four innings on Monday, the Brewers have exhausted their most reliable arms in this series. This leaves veteran left-hander Jose Quintana as the only remaining pitcher capable of absorbing significant innings in this elimination scenario.
While Milwaukee’s pitching hasn’t been catastrophic in the NLCS—posting a respectable 3.12 ERA across three games—their overall playoff numbers tell a more concerning story. The team carries a 3.26 ERA through eight postseason games with a 1.28 WHIP and opponents batting just .216 against them. They’ve recorded 73 strikeouts while issuing 33 walks and surrendering 12 home runs.
The stark contrast between Milwaukee’s starting pitching and relief corps reveals the strategic challenge facing manager Pat Murphy. The starting rotation, primarily consisting of Freddy Peralta and various openers, owns a troubling 1-3 record with a bloated 7.20 ERA. Conversely, the bullpen has been exceptional, posting a microscopic 1.65 ERA over 49 innings of work.
Quintana represents Milwaukee’s best remaining option for length in this critical game. The southpaw has appeared just once this postseason—eight days ago—when he followed an opener in Game 3 of the NLDS and blanked the Cubs over three innings. His regular season track record against Los Angeles provides a glimmer of hope: Quintana went 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts versus the Dodgers this year and holds a career 4-2 record with a 2.32 ERA in 15 games against them. However, opponents hit .241 against him during the regular season while he surrendered 18 home runs and 50 walks.
Los Angeles Pitching Dominance Powers Sweep Bid
The Dodgers’ starting pitching has been nothing short of spectacular throughout this championship series, establishing complete control over Milwaukee’s helpless offense. Los Angeles has limited the Brewers to exactly one run in each of the three games while their rotation has delivered dominant performance after dominant performance.
Blake Snell set the tone in Game 1 with eight innings of one-hit baseball while striking out 10 batters. Yoshinobu Yamamoto followed with a complete-game masterpiece in Game 2, punching out seven while keeping Milwaukee’s lineup thoroughly mystified. Tyler Glasnow maintained the excellence in Game 3, racking up eight strikeouts over 5.2 innings before turning the game over to a lockdown bullpen that has featured the exceptional Roki Sasaki, who owns a 1.29 ERA in six playoff relief appearances.
Through nine playoff games, the Dodgers’ pitching staff has been phenomenal, posting a 2.60 ERA with a minuscule 1.02 WHIP while holding opponents to a .174 batting average. They’ve accumulated 93 strikeouts against 34 walks issued. The starting rotation specifically has been extraordinary, compiling a 6-1 record with a dazzling 1.54 ERA, while the bullpen has contributed two wins, two saves and a less impressive 5.11 ERA.
For Game 4, Los Angeles will hand the ball to Shohei Ohtani, who hasn’t pitched in nearly two weeks since his last start against Philadelphia in Game 1 of the NLDS. In that outing, Ohtani demonstrated his elite pitching ability by striking out nine batters while allowing three runs, three hits and one walk over six innings to secure the victory. The extended rest should have Ohtani fresh and fully prepared to deliver the knockout blow to Milwaukee’s season.
Shohei Ohtani: The Two-Way Superstar Takes Center Stage
Ohtani brings exceptional credentials to this potential series-clinching assignment, having showcased remarkable consistency throughout his recent work on the mound. Over his last five starts, he’s lasted at least five innings in four outings while recording at least eight strikeouts in three of those appearances. His stuff remained sharp all season long, as opponents managed just a .227 batting average against him during the regular season with only three home runs and nine walks allowed.
The unique aspect of this matchup is that Ohtani has never faced Milwaukee in his career as a pitcher, meaning the Brewers’ hitters lack any previous experience reading his devastating arsenal. This unfamiliarity could prove particularly problematic for an offense that’s already struggling mightily to generate any production whatsoever.
Over his most recent five games on the mound, Ohtani has been virtually unhittable, surrendering just four earned runs combined while striking out 36 batters over 25.2 innings. Those numbers project exceptional dominance, and there’s little reason to believe Milwaukee’s dormant bats will suddenly solve the riddle that is Ohtani’s elite combination of velocity and movement.
Manager Dave Roberts has demonstrated a clear preference for extending his starting pitchers deeper into games throughout this postseason, and Ohtani’s lengthy rest period positions him perfectly to work six or more innings. Los Angeles starters have recorded at least 16 outs in eight of nine playoff games, with the lone exception being the only game the Dodgers have lost. In this series alone, the starting trio has combined for 68 outs compared to just 21 outs recorded by Milwaukee’s collection of openers and bulk arms.
Dodgers’ Offensive Production Remains Steady Without Fireworks
While Los Angeles hasn’t overwhelmed opponents with explosive offensive displays, they’ve generated sufficient run production to complement their dominant pitching performances. The Dodgers have scored 10 runs across the three NLCS games while hitting .242 as a team. Over their nine playoff contests, they’re batting .254 with 29 extra-base hits including 10 home runs, though they’ve also accumulated 83 strikeouts against 33 walks.
Mookie Betts delivered key contributions in Thursday’s victory, collecting a double and driving in a run. The superstar shortstop has reached base safely in six of nine playoff games during this championship run. Tommy Edman has emerged as another reliable contributor, registering a hit and RBI on Thursday while maintaining a .290 batting average throughout the postseason. His timely hitting has provided crucial insurance runs when the Dodgers’ pitching has kept games close.
Shohei Ohtani led off the bottom of the first inning in Game 3 with a triple—his first extra-base hit since launching two home runs in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. While Ohtani has struggled somewhat at the plate during the playoffs, batting just .158, his presence in the lineup continues to command respect and force opposing pitchers to approach him cautiously. When pitching, historically Ohtani has shown reduced effectiveness as a hitter, which could explain his 0-for-4 performance in the NLDS opener.
The Dodgers offense has scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five games, yet they’ve won every single one of those contests thanks to their pitching staff’s brilliance. This formula has proven more than sufficient to overwhelm Milwaukee’s anemic attack, and there’s minimal evidence suggesting Friday night will produce a dramatically different outcome.
Comprehensive Betting Analysis and Expert Predictions
Moneyline Recommendation: Dodgers -200 (5 Units)
After Milwaukee dominated the regular-season series with an improbable six-game sweep, Los Angeles has delivered the ultimate revenge in the postseason’s brightest spotlight. The Dodgers have cruised through this championship series with remarkable efficiency, and expecting Milwaukee to suddenly discover the offensive formula that’s eluded them seems foolishly optimistic.
The Brewers will face Ohtani, who has permitted just four earned runs combined over his last five mound appearances while striking out 36 batters in 25.2 innings. His devastating arsenal should continue overwhelming Milwaukee’s helpless lineup, which has generated three runs across three games. Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s pitching staff remains in complete disarray regarding their starting pitcher strategy, leaving them guessing about roles and workload distribution heading into their season’s most critical game.
The Dodgers have been utterly dominant at home throughout both the regular season and playoffs, transforming Dodger Stadium into an impenetrable fortress. With a rested bullpen behind Ohtani and momentum completely on their side, Los Angeles should complete the sweep and punch their ticket to a second consecutive World Series appearance. Milwaukee simply doesn’t possess the offensive firepower necessary to extend this series, making the Dodgers the clear choice despite the hefty price tag.
Over/Under Recommendation: Under 8.0 (5 Units)
The scoring trends throughout this series have been unmistakably clear: pitching dominates, and runs are extremely difficult to generate. The average combined score across the first three games totals just 4.3 runs, with the under cashing in all three contests. Milwaukee’s offensive struggles have been exhaustively documented, and this elimination scenario represents an unlikely setting for a dramatic turnaround.
The Brewers have scored three runs or fewer in six consecutive playoff games, demonstrating a consistent inability to solve quality pitching. While Los Angeles has rolled through the playoffs impressively, their offense hasn’t been pounding opponents’ pitching into submission. The Dodgers have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five games, relying instead on their pitching staff’s brilliance to secure victories.
The under is 3-0 in this series and 6-4 over the last 10 meetings between these franchises. With Ohtani taking the mound after extensive rest and Quintana possessing solid career numbers against Los Angeles, expect another pitcher-friendly contest that falls well short of the posted total. Both bullpens should be fully available for lengthy work, further suppressing scoring opportunities in the late innings.
Key Insights: Critical Questions Answered
Will Jackson Chourio play in Game 4 after his hamstring injury?
According to the latest reports, Chourio has been cleared to start in left field for Game 4 despite hopping off the field on one leg during Thursday’s seventh-inning at-bat. The Brewers desperately need his bat in the lineup as he’s been their most productive hitter this postseason with a .320 average and eight RBIs. However, his mobility and ability to swing aggressively may be compromised, potentially limiting his impact in this crucial elimination game.
How significant is Shohei Ohtani’s nearly two-week rest period before this start?
Extended rest periods have not proven problematic for Ohtani throughout his remarkable career. His postseason pitching debut came after irregular rest in Game 1 of the NLDS, where he struck out nine batters in a quality start against Philadelphia. The lengthy layoff should ensure Ohtani is completely fresh physically, allowing manager Dave Roberts to extend him deeper into the game—potentially six or seven innings—which would be crucial for securing the series-clinching victory.
Can Jose Quintana provide enough length to give Milwaukee’s bullpen rest?
Quintana represents Milwaukee’s best remaining option for eating innings after the team burned through Misiorowski and Priester in recent games. The veteran lefty has solid career numbers against Los Angeles (4-2, 2.32 ERA in 15 games) and went 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts versus the Dodgers this season. However, he’s pitched just three innings this entire postseason—eight days ago—meaning stamina could become an issue if he’s asked to work beyond the fifth inning in this high-pressure elimination scenario.
What is the historical precedent for teams facing 3-0 deficits in playoff series?
Teams facing 3-0 deficits in best-of-seven series have never successfully completed the comeback in MLB history. According to Elias Sports, this marks the eighth time a team has taken a 3-0 lead against an opponent with baseball’s best regular-season record, and all seven previous instances ended with 4-0 sweeps. Milwaukee would need to achieve something unprecedented by winning four consecutive games against this dominant Dodgers squad.
How have the Dodgers’ role players performed in this NLCS?
Tommy Edman has emerged as a postseason revelation, hitting .290 throughout the playoffs and delivering clutch hits consistently, including the go-ahead knock in Game 3. His contributions have been invaluable in complementing the star power of Betts, Freeman and Ohtani. Conversely, some expected contributors have struggled—Ohtani is batting just .158 at the plate during the playoffs, though his impact on the mound has been exceptional. Role players stepping up in big moments has been a defining characteristic of championship teams, and the Dodgers are receiving exactly that type of production.
Should bettors consider alternative prop bets for this game?
Beyond the traditional moneyline and totals, several prop bets offer intriguing value. Ohtani’s strikeout total presents interesting opportunities, as he’s recorded at least eight strikeouts in three of his last five starts. The over on pitching outs (16.5) also merits consideration, given Roberts’ preference for extending his starters and Ohtani’s fresh arm after the lengthy rest. Additionally, Teoscar Hernandez’s power against left-handed pitching (.467 SLG, .217 ISO versus southpaws) makes him an attractive option for extra-base hit props if Quintana starts for Milwaukee.
