Giants vs Dolphins- Breakdown and Prediction
October 6, 2023
The 2025 National League Division Series reaches its dramatic conclusion as the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers prepare for a winner-take-all Game 5 showdown. After Milwaukee dominated the opening two contests, Chicago stormed back with consecutive home victories, setting up one of the most anticipated elimination games of the postseason.
This pivotal matchup features two talented young pitchers—Chicago’s Shota Imanaga and Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski—who will carry enormous pressure as their teams battle for a spot in the National League Championship Series. Let’s break down the key factors, statistics, and betting angles that will determine who advances.
One trend stands out above all others in this series: the home team has emerged victorious in all four games. Milwaukee cruised through Games 1 and 2 at American Family Field, while Chicago responded with equally convincing performances at Wrigley Field in Games 3 and 4.
Milwaukee has won five of their last six games at their home ballpark, demonstrating a significant comfort level when playing in front of their faithful fans. This pattern suggests that the Brewers’ home environment provides a tangible advantage that could prove decisive in this elimination scenario.
The atmosphere in Milwaukee will be electric, with everything on the line. The Brewers enter as -145 favorites, reflecting both their home-field edge and their superior regular-season performance against divisional opponents.
The Cubs and Brewers have taken distinctly different paths to production during this postseason run. Chicago’s offense ranks fifth among playoff teams with a .234/.303/.413 slash line while averaging 3.14 runs per contest. However, their power numbers tell a more impressive story—they lead all postseason teams with 11 home runs through their first seven games.
Michael Busch has been the catalyst for Chicago’s long-ball attack, delivering a phenomenal .292 average (7-for-24) with four homers, four RBI, and four runs scored. His 2:4 walk-to-strikeout ratio demonstrates excellent plate discipline alongside his power surge, making him a legitimate threat every time he steps into the batter’s box.
Milwaukee’s offensive profile presents a more balanced attack. The Brewers rank third in the majors with a .738 team OPS this postseason while scoring 4.75 runs per game—significantly higher than Chicago’s output. Their consistency at the plate shows in their .260 team batting average, second-best among all playoff squads.
Catcher William Contreras epitomizes Milwaukee’s approach, posting a .313 average (5-for-16) with one homer, two RBI, and four runs scored. His 1:3 walk-to-strikeout ratio may not match Busch’s patience, but his ability to get on base regularly has kept Milwaukee’s offense humming throughout October.
While overall offensive numbers matter, postseason baseball often comes down to execution with runners in scoring position. Here, Milwaukee holds a massive advantage that could prove insurmountable.
The Brewers lead all playoff teams with a staggering 1.028 OPS in high-leverage situations with runners in scoring position. Meanwhile, Chicago languishes near the bottom, ranking 11th out of 12 playoff teams with just a .610 OPS in those same critical moments.
This 418-point differential represents the difference between championship-caliber clutch hitting and struggling to manufacture runs when opportunities arise. In a winner-take-all Game 5 where every base runner matters, this statistical gap cannot be overlooked.
Shota Imanaga’s Recent Struggles
The left-hander from Japan has experienced a challenging postseason after a stellar regular season. In Game 2 of this series, Imanaga lasted just 2.2 innings while surrendering four runs on five hits with three strikeouts and zero walks. His inability to navigate through Milwaukee’s lineup raises serious concerns about his Game 5 readiness.
Advanced metrics from Baseball Savant paint a concerning picture of Imanaga’s recent performance. He ranks in the sixth percentile for barrel percentage (meaning hitters are making extremely hard contact), 11th percentile in average exit velocity, 24th percentile in hard-hit percentage, and 34th percentile in strikeout rate.
Imanaga’s six-pitch arsenal includes a fastball, splitter, sweeper, curveball, sinker, and slider. His sweeper has been his most effective weapon, limiting opponents to a .153 batting average and .208 slugging percentage with zero home runs and 30 strikeouts. However, against Milwaukee specifically, Imanaga has struggled throughout 2025. In four meetings (regular season and playoffs), he’s posted a 1-3 record across 20.1 innings, allowing 11 runs on 17 hits while striking out 20 against three walks.
Jacob Misiorowski’s Dominant Metrics
The rookie right-hander presents a stark contrast in terms of recent performance and advanced statistics. Misiorowski appeared in Game 2 as a relief pitcher, tossing three scoreless innings while allowing just one hit with two walks and four strikeouts to earn the victory. His composure in a pressure situation bodes well for this winner-take-all assignment.
Baseball Savant metrics reveal why Misiorowski has been so effective. He ranks in the 93rd percentile for strikeout percentage, 91st percentile in expected batting average (xBA), 80th percentile in whiff percentage, and 79th percentile in expected ERA (xERA). These elite numbers across multiple categories suggest sustainable success rather than fortunate results.
Misiorowski works with a four-pitch mix: fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. His fastball has been particularly devastating, limiting hitters to a .193 batting average and .312 slugging percentage while generating 45 strikeouts and allowing just three home runs.
Against Chicago specifically, Misiorowski has made three appearances (including two starts) with a 1-1 record over 11.0 innings. He’s surrendered six runs (five earned) on five hits while walking seven and striking out 16. The strikeout numbers demonstrate his ability to miss Cubs bats, though his walks created some self-inflicted pressure.
Both managers will operate with quick hooks in this elimination game, pulling their starters at the first sign of trouble. The day off on Friday allowed both bullpens to rest and recover, meaning fresh arms will be available from the opening pitch.
Chicago’s relief corps has been excellent this October, ranking fourth among playoff teams with a 2.27 ERA. However, Milwaukee’s bullpen has been even more dominant, posting a minuscule 1.23 ERA that ranks second in the postseason. This nearly one-run difference per nine innings could be the deciding factor if the game becomes a battle of the bullpens.
The depth and effectiveness of Milwaukee’s relief pitching provides manager Pat Murphy with more flexibility and confidence to deploy multiple high-leverage relievers without fear of blowing leads. This advantage becomes magnified in a one-game, season-on-the-line scenario.
Chicago Cubs Injury Report:
The Cubs are dealing with significant injuries that limit their depth, particularly in the pitching staff. The absence of Justin Steele, who would have been a top candidate to start Game 5, forces Chicago to rely on Imanaga despite his recent struggles.
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report:
Milwaukee’s injury list is longer, but most impact pitchers who aren’t part of their current playoff roster. The one concern is William Contreras, whose hand issue could affect his availability. However, his status as questionable rather than out suggests he’ll likely be in the lineup given the stakes.
Moneyline Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -145 (5 Units)
The combination of home-field advantage, superior clutch hitting, better bullpen performance, and a more effective starting pitcher creates a clear edge for Milwaukee. The Brewers represent the more complete team with fewer weaknesses to exploit.
Chicago’s reliance on the long ball creates volatility—they can certainly win if they connect on a few home runs—but Milwaukee’s balanced approach and consistent run production makes them the safer investment. The -145 price offers solid value considering all the factors working in the Brewers’ favor.
Total Pick: UNDER (4 Units)
Expect both managers to have extremely quick hooks with their starting pitchers. Any hint of trouble will result in a trip to the bullpen, where both teams feature excellent depth and effectiveness. With rested relievers available and the stakes at their highest, defensive-minded baseball should prevail.
Milwaukee’s 1.23 bullpen ERA and Chicago’s 2.27 relief ERA suggest that once the starters exit, runs will become increasingly difficult to produce. The pressure of elimination baseball often leads to tighter, lower-scoring affairs as teams prioritize avoiding mistakes over aggressive run-scoring attempts.
Which team has the statistical advantage in high-pressure situations?
Milwaukee dominates clutch hitting metrics with a 1.028 OPS with runners in scoring position, compared to Chicago’s .610 OPS in the same situations. This 418-point differential represents the single largest statistical gap between the two teams and strongly favors the Brewers in a tight, one-run game scenario.
How have the starting pitchers performed against each other this season?
Shota Imanaga has struggled against Milwaukee, posting a 1-3 record with 11 runs allowed over 20.1 innings in four meetings. Jacob Misiorowski has been more effective against Chicago with a 1-1 record, though his seven walks in 11.0 innings show some command issues. His 16 strikeouts against Cubs batters demonstrate his ability to miss their bats.
What role will home-field advantage play in this game?
The home team has won all four games in this series, with the Brewers winning five of their last six at American Family Field overall. This consistent pattern suggests Milwaukee’s home environment provides measurable advantages in crowd energy, familiarity with playing conditions, and psychological comfort.
Which offense has been more consistent throughout the playoffs?
Milwaukee’s offense has been significantly more reliable, averaging 4.75 runs per game compared to Chicago’s 3.14 runs per contest. While the Cubs lead in home runs with 11, the Brewers’ .260 team batting average (second in playoffs) demonstrates better overall hitting consistency.
How important are the bullpens in this winner-take-all scenario?
Extremely important, as both managers will have quick hooks. Milwaukee holds a significant edge with their 1.23 bullpen ERA (second in playoffs) compared to Chicago’s 2.27 ERA (fourth). With rested arms available after Friday’s off day, expect bullpens to play major roles from the middle innings onward.
Can Michael Busch’s power surge carry the Cubs to victory?
While Busch has been phenomenal with four postseason home runs, baseball’s nature means one player rarely determines outcomes in elimination games. Milwaukee’s pitching staff can focus defensive shifts and attack patterns on neutralizing individual threats, making it difficult for any single hitter to dominate a winner-take-all contest.
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