Giants vs Dolphins- Breakdown and Prediction
October 6, 2023
The National League Division Series reaches a critical juncture as the Milwaukee Brewers aim to complete a statement sweep against the Chicago Cubs in Game 3. With Milwaukee holding a commanding 2-0 series advantage, the Cubs face a must-win scenario on their home turf at Wrigley Field. This elimination game presents fascinating betting dynamics, particularly with Quinn Priester making his postseason debut against the veteran Jameson Taillon.
Milwaukee’s offensive explosion throughout this series has been nothing short of spectacular, outscoring Chicago 16-6 through the first two contests. However, as every seasoned bettor knows, momentum can shift dramatically when a team’s back is against the wall, especially in the playoff atmosphere of one of baseball’s most iconic venues.
The Brewers have transformed into an offensive juggernaut during the postseason, ranking second across Major League Baseball with an impressive .939 team OPS while averaging eight runs per contest. Their batting prowess becomes even more evident when examining their .343 team batting average, trailing only the Toronto Blue Jays among all playoff competitors.
Jackson Chourio has emerged as Milwaukee’s catalyst at the top of the lineup, delivering clutch performances when it matters most. Through the opening two games, the young left fielder has collected five hits in seven at-bats, including a critical home run, while driving in six runs and crossing the plate twice himself. This type of production from a table-setter creates a domino effect throughout the entire batting order.
However, Milwaukee faces significant uncertainty on the mound with Quinn Priester drawing the start. The right-hander hasn’t appeared in competitive action since September 26 against the Cincinnati Reds, where he struggled through five innings, surrendering three runs on nine hits while walking one and striking out four in a losing effort. That extended layoff of nearly two weeks raises legitimate questions about his rhythm and command.
Priester’s advanced metrics paint an intriguing picture of competency without dominance. According to Baseball Savant analytics, he ranks in the 68th percentile for expected ERA, 66th percentile in barrel percentage, 59th percentile in hard hit percentage, and 57th percentile in average exit velocity. These numbers suggest a capable pitcher who can navigate through lineups without overwhelming stuff.
His five-pitch arsenal includes a sinker, slider, cutter, curveball, and changeup, with the curveball serving as his premier offering. Opponents have managed just a .143 batting average and .347 slugging percentage against his hook, with only three home runs surrendered against 20 strikeouts. This pitch could prove crucial in navigating Chicago’s lineup.
The regular season history between Priester and the Cubs offers mixed signals. Across three starts totaling 14.1 innings, he posted a 1-0 record but allowed 10 runs on 17 hits while issuing 11 walks against 11 strikeouts. That elevated walk rate and hit volume would be concerning in a pressure-packed elimination game.
Milwaukee’s injury situation has depleted their pitching depth considerably. Brandon Woodruff (lat), Jose Quintana (calf), Shelby Miller (elbow), Logan Henderson (elbow), Jordan Montgomery (elbow), and Connor Thomas (elbow) all remain sidelined. Center fielder Garrett Mitchell is also unavailable with an oblique injury.
The Cubs’ offensive performance through the first two games hasn’t matched Milwaukee’s firepower, but they’ve shown enough competitiveness to suggest they’re far from finished. Chicago ranks sixth among playoff teams with a .657 OPS while averaging 2.4 runs per game—numbers that underscore their uphill battle but don’t tell the complete story.
Where Chicago has excelled is in raw power production, ranking second in the postseason with seven home runs. This long-ball capability means they’re always one swing away from changing a game’s complexion, particularly at Wrigley Field where favorable wind conditions can turn routine fly balls into game-changing moments.
First baseman Michael Busch has provided steady production through five playoff games, going 5-for-16 with two home runs, two RBI, two runs scored, and maintaining an even 1:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio. His ability to work counts and deliver power represents exactly what Chicago needs from their middle-of-the-order presence.
Jameson Taillon brings invaluable postseason experience to the mound for this elimination scenario. The veteran right-hander most recently appeared in Game 3 of the NL Wild Card series, where he delivered four shutout innings, allowing just two hits without issuing a walk while striking out four batters. That performance showcased his ability to rise to the occasion when stakes are highest.
Taillon’s statistical profile reveals a pitcher who succeeds through pitch mixing and location rather than overpowering velocity. His Baseball Savant page shows him in the 16th percentile for whiff percentage and 22nd percentile in strikeout percentage, but he compensates with respectable marks in the 46th percentile for expected batting average and 53rd percentile in barrel percentage.
His six-pitch mix—featuring a fastball, sweeper, cutter, curveball, changeup, and sinker—gives him multiple weapons to attack hitters from different angles. Like Priester, Taillon’s curveball has been his most effective pitch, limiting opponents to a .148 batting average and .148 slugging percentage without allowing any extra-base hits while recording 15 strikeouts.
Against Milwaukee during the regular season, Taillon compiled a 2-1 record across 16 innings, allowing eight runs on 16 hits with three walks and 11 strikeouts. Those numbers suggest he understands how to attack this Brewers lineup and can execute a game plan effectively.
Chicago’s injury report includes Cade Horton (ribs), Owen Caissie (concussion), Ryan Braiser (groin), Miguel Amaya (ankle), and Justin Steele (elbow), all ruled out for this crucial contest.
Spread Pick: Chicago Cubs -137 (4 units)
The betting market presents compelling value backing the Cubs as home underdogs in this elimination scenario. While Milwaukee’s dominance through the first two games has been impressive, several factors suggest this series isn’t destined for a sweep.
Jameson Taillon’s postseason pedigree cannot be overstated. Veterans who have thrived in high-leverage situations tend to elevate their performance when facing elimination, and his recent Wild Card performance demonstrated that capability. He understands how to navigate tight ballgames and won’t beat himself with mistakes.
Conversely, Quinn Priester enters his first career postseason appearance on the road, having not pitched in nearly two weeks. That combination creates substantial volatility. Young pitchers making playoff debuts in hostile environments often struggle with emotional control and command, particularly in the early innings before settling in.
The Cubs’ roster construction, featuring proven playoff performers like Kyle Tucker and Dansby Swanson, provides Chicago with veteran leadership that understands how to win these games. Their postseason experience becomes invaluable in elimination scenarios where mental toughness separates winners from losers.
Furthermore, the competitive nature of both games suggests these teams are more evenly matched than the 2-0 series score indicates. Chicago has demonstrated they can compete with Milwaukee; they simply need to execute for nine innings and catch a break or two.
Manager Craig Counsell’s familiarity with Milwaukee’s organization (having previously managed the Brewers) adds another intriguing element. He understands their tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses better than most opposing managers, which could manifest in strategic advantages throughout the game.
Over/Under Pick: UNDER (4 units)
The Under presents outstanding value given the exceptional bullpen performances from both teams throughout this postseason. Milwaukee leads all playoff teams with a microscopic 0.84 reliever ERA, while Chicago ranks fourth with a 2.67 bullpen ERA. These numbers indicate that once starting pitchers exit, runs will be extremely difficult to generate.
Priester’s extended rest, while concerning for command issues, also means he should possess maximum arm strength and pitch effectiveness. If he can navigate through five or six innings without major damage, Milwaukee’s dominant bullpen takes over and shuts down Chicago’s offense.
Taillon’s experience in elimination games suggests he’ll pitch carefully and conservatively, prioritizing keeping his team in the contest over taking risks. Expect him to work corners, change speeds effectively, and avoid costly mistakes that could bury Chicago’s season.
Craig Counsell’s reputation as one of baseball’s most astute tactical managers means he’ll maximize his bullpen usage. He understands the urgency of this moment and won’t hesitate to deploy his best relievers in high-leverage situations, regardless of traditional inning assignments.
The playoff atmosphere at Wrigley Field, while intimidating for visiting pitchers, also creates tension that affects hitters. Both offenses will face pressure to execute, which typically leads to more conservative at-bats and fewer risks on the basepaths.
Wind conditions at Wrigley Field will be monitored closely, but unless conditions heavily favor hitters, the combination of quality pitching and elite bullpen work should keep scoring limited throughout this contest.
Will Quinn Priester’s rust significantly impact his performance?
The nearly two-week layoff creates legitimate concerns about Priester’s command and rhythm. Historically, pitchers with extended rest during playoff runs struggle with their location in early innings. However, his arsenal’s diversity, particularly the effectiveness of his curveball, gives him weapons to succeed even if his fastball command wavers initially. Expect Milwaukee to have quick hooks if he shows early distress.
Can Chicago’s power hitting overcome their offensive struggles?
The Cubs’ seven playoff home runs demonstrate their ability to change games with one swing. At Wrigley Field, where dimensions favor power hitters and wind conditions can dramatically impact fly ball trajectories, their long-ball capability remains dangerous. However, Milwaukee’s bullpen excellence means Chicago needs to capitalize early before facing elite relievers in late innings.
How important is Jameson Taillon’s playoff experience in this matchup?
Taillon’s veteran presence cannot be overstated in an elimination game. His recent Wild Card performance showcased his ability to control emotions and execute pitches in pressure situations. Young pitchers like Priester often struggle with the heightened intensity of playoff baseball, while veterans like Taillon thrive in these moments. His experience provides Chicago with stability and confidence.
What role does home-field advantage play in this elimination scenario?
Wrigley Field’s atmosphere in a playoff elimination game creates one of baseball’s most intimidating environments for visiting teams. The crowd energy can rattle young players like Priester while energizing Cubs veterans. However, Milwaukee’s veteran core has played in big games before, and their offensive confidence might insulate them from crowd noise. Home field matters, but execution matters more.
Should bettors consider live betting opportunities in this matchup?
Given the uncertainty surrounding Priester’s effectiveness after his layoff, live betting presents intriguing possibilities. If he navigates through the first two innings cleanly, Milwaukee’s odds will likely shorten significantly. Conversely, if Chicago jumps on him early, substantial value may emerge on the Brewers. Monitor the first few innings before committing to live positions.
This NLDS Game 3 matchup presents classic betting dynamics where public perception favors the dominant team seeking a sweep, while sharp money recognizes value in the desperate underdog at home. Milwaukee’s offensive dominance through two games has been undeniable, but Chicago possesses the pitching, veteran leadership, and home-field advantage necessary to extend this series.
The Cubs’ moneyline value at -137 represents a premium opportunity to back a team that won’t go quietly into the offseason. Jameson Taillon’s experience and effectiveness in elimination scenarios provide Chicago with exactly what they need on the mound, while their power-hitting capability keeps them dangerous throughout nine innings.
The Under remains the strongest play, given both teams’ exceptional bullpen performances and the pressure-packed nature of elimination baseball. Runs will come at a premium, and defensive execution will be paramount. Smart bettors recognize that playoff baseball, particularly in elimination games, tends to tighten up significantly as managers become increasingly conservative with their decision-making.
Milwaukee will eventually win this series, but Chicago won’t make it easy. Expect a competitive, low-scoring affair where every pitch and at-bat carries enormous significance. The Cubs live to fight another day, forcing a Game 4 and keeping their championship aspirations alive for at least one more contest.
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