Giants vs Dolphins- Breakdown and Prediction
October 6, 2023
The National League Division Series between divisional rivals Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers has already delivered playoff drama, with the home team capturing a dominant Game 1 victory. Now, as the series shifts to Game 2 at American Family Field, both clubs face pivotal moments that could define their postseason trajectories. With the Brewers holding a 1-0 advantage and positioning themselves for a commanding lead, and the Cubs desperate to even the series before returning home, this matchup presents compelling betting opportunities for sharp bettors and casual fans alike.
The pitching duel features two southpaws who entered their respective rotations through unconventional postseason paths. For Chicago, left-hander Shota Imanaga (9-8, 3.73 ERA) takes the hill after his relief appearance during the NL Wild Card series. The Japanese import logged four innings out of the bullpen in Game 2, surrendering two runs on three hits while recording three strikeouts against two walks. While his performance didn’t factor into the decision, his willingness to adapt to any role demonstrates the versatility that made him one of the Cubs’ most valuable acquisitions.
Imanaga’s advanced metrics paint an interesting picture of his pitching profile. According to Baseball Savant analytics, he ranks in the sixth percentile for barrel percentage and 11th percentile in average exit velocity—concerning indicators that suggest hitters make quality contact when they connect. His hard-hit rate sits in the 24th percentile, while his strikeout percentage lands in the 34th percentile. These numbers suggest a pitcher who relies more on movement and location than overpowering stuff.
However, Imanaga’s sweeper has emerged as his signature weapon throughout the season. Armed with a six-pitch repertoire including a fastball, splitter, sweeper, curveball, sinker, and slider, his sweeper has been particularly devastating. Opposing hitters have managed just a .153 batting average and .208 slugging percentage against the pitch, with zero home runs allowed and 30 strikeouts accumulated. This pitch alone could be the difference-maker if Imanaga can consistently locate it against Milwaukee’s aggressive approach.
Against the Brewers specifically during the regular season, Imanaga posted a 1-1 record across 10.2 innings, allowing five runs on nine hits with one walk and 12 strikeouts. His ability to limit free passes against this patient lineup will be crucial for keeping the Cubs competitive.
Milwaukee counters with Aaron Ashby (5-2, 2.16 ERA), who also appeared in Game 1 from the bullpen. The southpaw delivered 1.1 perfect innings with one strikeout, showcasing the dominant form that has defined his recent performances. Ashby’s statistical profile stands in stark contrast to Imanaga’s, with elite rankings across multiple categories.
Ashby’s Baseball Savant page reveals impressive metrics: 99th percentile in barrel percentage, 86th percentile in xERA, 84th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 75th percentile in xBA. These elite numbers indicate a pitcher who generates weak contact, misses bats, and consistently outperforms expectations. His five-pitch mix features a sinker, curveball, changeup, slider, and fastball, with his curveball serving as his primary out pitch.
The curveball has been particularly unhittable, limiting opponents to a .143 batting average and .184 slugging percentage with zero home runs and 27 strikeouts. The big question surrounding Ashby centers on his workload—after pitching out of the bullpen in Game 1, how many innings can Milwaukee expect from him in this start? His pitch count and effectiveness will likely dictate Craig Counsell’s bullpen strategy.
Notably, Ashby enters this start riding a scoreless streak spanning seven consecutive outings covering 10.1 innings. This run of excellence provides tremendous confidence as he faces elimination-desperate Cubs hitters.
The Cubs have demonstrated legitimate offensive firepower throughout their playoff run, currently ranking fourth among postseason teams with a .708 team OPS. However, their 2.25 runs per game average tells a different story—one of feast or famine production that has plagued them at critical moments. The team has compensated for inconsistent scoring by launching six home runs, tying the Los Angeles Dodgers for the playoff lead in long balls.
First baseman Michael Busch has emerged as Chicago’s most dangerous postseason threat. Through four playoff games, Busch has collected five hits in 14 at-bats, including two home runs, two RBI, and two runs scored while maintaining a balanced 1:1 walk-to-strikeout ratio. His ability to impact the game with one swing makes him the focal point of Milwaukee’s scouting report.
The concerning trend for Chicago, however, lies in their situational hitting. With runners in scoring position—the most critical moments in playoff baseball—the Cubs have struggled mightily, going just 1-for-15 in those opportunities during the postseason. This 6.7% success rate with RISP represents a statistical nightmare that simply cannot continue if they hope to advance. Playoff games are won in these pressure situations, and Chicago must reverse this trend immediately.
Beyond Busch, the Cubs need secondary contributors to step forward. Their offensive depth, which carried them through the regular season, hasn’t materialized consistently in October. Breaking through against Milwaukee’s bullpen—which has been excellent but not impenetrable—represents their best path to generating runs.
The Brewers’ Game 1 explosion wasn’t a fluke but rather a continuation of their postseason excellence at the plate. Milwaukee ranks third among playoff teams with an impressive .888 team OPS while averaging a robust 9.0 runs per game. Their patient approach has been exemplary, drawing five walks against eight strikeouts—a nearly 1:1 ratio that demonstrates impressive discipline.
Third baseman Caleb Durbin has contributed early, going 1-for-4 with two RBI in limited opportunities. However, the Brewers’ offensive success stems from top-to-bottom contributions rather than individual heroics. Their ability to work counts, capitalize on mistakes, and deliver timely hits has overwhelmed opponents.
Most tellingly, Milwaukee has excelled in the game’s biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, the Brewers have connected at a 7-for-17 clip (41.2%)—a stark contrast to Chicago’s struggles. This efficiency in leverage situations has been the difference between winning and losing in the postseason, and Milwaukee’s ability to deliver has them on the cusp of a commanding series lead.
The potential absence or limitation of center fielder Jackson Chourio (hamstring) represents Milwaukee’s primary concern. Chourio’s dynamic skillset—solid hitting, baserunning aggression, and defensive reliability—makes him difficult to replace. If he’s unavailable or hampered, the Brewers’ offensive ceiling drops considerably. His ability to take the extra base and put pressure on defenses creates opportunities throughout the lineup.
Both teams enter Game 2 with significant injury concerns that could influence outcomes and betting decisions. Chicago’s injury report features several notable absences:
Milwaukee’s injury situation includes:
The questionable status of both Contreras and Chourio deserves close monitoring before first pitch. Contreras provides Milwaukee with All-Star caliber production behind the plate, while Chourio’s absence would significantly impact their offensive dynamics and defensive alignment.
Playoff baseball often hinges on bullpen performance, and both teams have received excellent work from their relief corps. The Cubs rank fifth with a 2.16 reliever ERA through the early playoff rounds, showcasing the depth that carried them through September’s crucial games. Their ability to bridge from starter to closer has been essential given their starting pitching uncertainties.
Milwaukee’s bullpen has been nearly as effective, posting a 2.70 ERA while ranking sixth among postseason teams. Their depth allows manager Craig Counsell flexibility in deploying high-leverage arms across multiple innings. This strength becomes particularly important if Ashby’s workload is limited due to his Game 1 appearance.
The battle of bullpens could ultimately decide Game 2. Whichever relief corps can maintain their early-season excellence while protecting leads in the middle innings will give their team a significant advantage. Both bullpens have shown they can shut down opposing offenses, making early runs even more valuable.
Money Line Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -137 (4 Units)
The Brewers present substantial value at -137 despite the juice, based on multiple converging factors. First, their recent momentum cannot be overlooked—Milwaukee dominated Game 1 comprehensively, setting a tone that suggests they’re operating on a different level. Second, the pitching advantage clearly favors Ashby over Imanaga based on recent performance, advanced metrics, and current form.
Recent betting analysis shows the Brewers maintaining their series lead momentum, and their ability to capitalize on Chicago’s weaknesses makes them the superior play. Ashby’s scoreless streak across seven appearances provides tremendous confidence in his ability to stifle Cubs hitters. Meanwhile, Imanaga’s 5.40 ERA across his last seven outings (41.2 innings) suggests vulnerability that Milwaukee’s aggressive lineup can exploit.
The situational hitting disparity tells the story: Milwaukee’s 41.2% success rate with RISP versus Chicago’s 6.7% represents more than statistical noise—it reflects which team executes in pressure moments. Playoff games are won in these situations, and the Brewers have demonstrated clear superiority.
Backing Milwaukee at home, with superior pitching, better situational hitting, and momentum from their Game 1 dominance, represents smart money at -137. The Brewers should push their series lead to 2-0 before the venue shifts to Wrigley Field.
Total Pick: UNDER 7.5 Runs (5 Units)
The under presents even stronger value than the money line, supported by multiple compelling narratives. First, the Chourio situation looms large. If Milwaukee’s dynamic center fielder is unavailable or limited, their offensive ceiling drops significantly. His absence removes a catalyst who creates scoring opportunities through speed and aggression—attributes difficult to replicate.
Chicago’s offensive struggles extend beyond poor RISP hitting. The Cubs haven’t posted a crooked number (multiple runs in a single inning) during their playoff run, suggesting an inability to string together sustained rallies. Expecting them to suddenly solve this problem against Milwaukee’s quality pitching and elite bullpen represents wishful thinking rather than analysis.
Both starting pitchers—despite different paths—have shown recent effectiveness. Ashby’s dominant stretch and Imanaga’s ability to limit damage with his sweeper suggest a pitchers’ duel could develop. Once starters exit, both bullpens have performed excellently, with sub-3.00 ERAs that should preserve low-scoring conditions.
The first game’s high-scoring affair often leads oddsmakers to adjust totals upward, creating value on unders for savvy bettors. Public money typically floods the over after offensive explosions, but playoff baseball frequently features lower-scoring affairs as teams adjust. The under at 7.5 represents excellent value given the pitching matchups, bullpen quality, and Chicago’s offensive limitations.
How significant is home-field advantage in this NLDS?
Home-field advantage has proven substantial in this series. Milwaukee’s dominance in Game 1 demonstrated their comfort level at American Family Field, where crowd energy and familiarity with conditions provide tangible benefits. The Brewers compiled excellent home splits during the regular season, and that trend has continued into October. For Game 2, backing the home team makes sense given their ability to leverage every advantage.
Which team handles pressure situations better?
The numbers clearly favor Milwaukee. Their 7-for-17 performance with runners in scoring position (41.2%) crushes Chicago’s anemic 1-for-15 (6.7%) mark. Playoff baseball rewards teams that execute in high-leverage situations, and the Brewers have demonstrated clear superiority. This trend strongly suggests Milwaukee will continue finding ways to manufacture runs when they matter most.
Should bettors worry about Ashby’s limited rest after Game 1?
While Ashby’s 1.1-inning appearance in Game 1 requires monitoring, his excellent recent form and Milwaukee’s bullpen depth mitigate concerns. Even if his outing is shortened, the Brewers possess high-quality relievers capable of covering multiple innings. Craig Counsell has proven adept at managing pitching staffs in October, and his strategic flexibility should keep Ashby effective regardless of workload limitations.
What’s the biggest X-factor for Game 2?
Jackson Chourio’s health status represents the game’s biggest variable. If Milwaukee’s center fielder is unavailable or significantly limited, their offensive dynamics change considerably. Chourio’s ability to impact games through multiple avenues—hitting, baserunning, defense—makes him nearly irreplaceable. His absence would lower Milwaukee’s offensive ceiling and potentially shift total considerations. Monitor pregame injury reports closely before finalizing any wagers.
Can Chicago’s pitching contain Milwaukee’s hot-hitting lineup?
Chicago faces a significant challenge containing Milwaukee’s balanced attack. The Brewers’ patient approach, combined with their ability to capitalize on mistakes, has overwhelmed opponents. Imanaga must locate his sweeper consistently and avoid elevated mistakes that Milwaukee’s power hitters can punish. If Chicago’s pitching can navigate the first three innings without major damage, they’ll have a chance to steal Game 2. However, Milwaukee’s offensive excellence suggests runs will come eventually.
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