Giants vs Dolphins- Breakdown and Prediction
October 6, 2023
The American League Wild Card series kicks off with one of baseball’s most storied rivalries as the Boston Red Sox travel to the Bronx to face the New York Yankees in a best-of-three playoff showdown. With first pitch scheduled after 6:00 PM ET, this matchup features two teams that took drastically different paths to October baseball, setting up an intriguing Game 1 clash that has significant betting implications.
Boston enters the postseason as the second AL Wild Card seed after compiling an impressive 89-73 regular season record. Meanwhile, the Yankees secured the top Wild Card position with a 94-68 mark, riding a wave of late-season momentum that saw them finish tied for the best record in the American League. Despite New York’s superior regular season performance, the head-to-head history between these clubs tells a more complicated story that bettors need to consider.
The pitching matchup for Game 1 showcases two left-handers operating at peak performance levels, though their styles and recent trajectories differ significantly.
Garrett Crochet’s Dominance for Boston
The Red Sox are handing the ball to young southpaw Garrett Crochet, who has emerged as one of baseball’s most exciting arms down the stretch. Coming off a masterful performance against Toronto—eight shutout frames allowing just three hits with six punchouts and zero free passes—Crochet brings serious momentum into his playoff debut.
Advanced metrics paint an impressive picture of Crochet’s 2025 campaign. His Baseball Savant profile places him in elite company: 93rd percentile for strikeout rate, 90th percentile in both chase rate and expected ERA, and 87th percentile for walk control. These numbers reflect a pitcher who commands the zone while generating whiffs at an exceptional clip.
Crochet deploys a five-pitch arsenal featuring a fastball, cutter, sweeper, sinker, and changeup. His sweeper has been particularly devastating, limiting opponents to a microscopic .126 batting average and .207 slugging percentage while racking up 89 strikeouts against just three home runs allowed. This pitch alone could be the difference-maker in navigating New York’s power-laden lineup.
The historical data against the Yankees provides additional confidence. In four regular season starts against the Bronx Bombers, Crochet posted a perfect 3-0 record across 27.1 innings, surrendering 10 runs on 20 hits while striking out 39 batters against only four walks. Over his last seven outings, he’s compiled a stellar 5-0 record with a 3.13 ERA and 0.87 WHIP across 46.0 innings.
Max Fried’s Consistency for New York
The Yankees counter with veteran Max Fried, whose experience and polish make him an ideal Game 1 starter. Fried’s most recent outing against Chicago showcased his ability to pitch deep into games—seven innings of one-run ball on four hits with seven strikeouts, though he did issue two walks.
Fried’s Baseball Savant metrics highlight his ability to suppress hard contact: 92nd percentile in average exit velocity, with 76th percentile marks in expected ERA, walk rate, and hard-hit percentage. His seven-pitch mix (cutter, sinker, curveball, fastball, changeup, slider) gives him multiple ways to attack hitters, though his curveball stands out as his premier offering. Batters have managed just a .190 average and .293 slugging percentage against the breaking ball, with 49 strikeouts surrendered against only three long balls.
Against Boston this season, Fried split two decisions across three starts, pitching 18.1 innings while allowing four runs on 19 hits with seven walks and 22 strikeouts. His recent surge is even more impressive than Crochet’s: 6-0 with a microscopic 1.55 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over his last seven starts spanning 46.1 innings.
Boston’s Balanced Attack
The Red Sox offense ranks ninth in MLB with a .745 team OPS while averaging 4.85 runs per contest. Boston has embraced an aggressive baserunning philosophy, finishing sixth in baseball with 139 stolen bases (caught just 38 times). This speed element adds another dimension that New York must account for defensively.
Left fielder Jarren Duran has been the catalyst for Boston’s attack, posting a .774 OPS with 16 home runs, 84 RBI, 86 runs scored, and 24 successful steals against six times caught. His ability to impact the game in multiple ways makes him a constant threat atop the lineup.
However, the Red Sox face a crucial concern when examining their clutch performance. With runners in scoring position, Boston managed only a .748 team OPS this season, tied for 16th place with Atlanta. This mediocre performance in high-leverage situations could prove costly against Fried and the Yankees’ bullpen.
New York’s Offensive Firepower
The Yankees boast baseball’s most fearsome offensive unit, leading all teams with a .787 team OPS while plating 5.24 runs per game. New York’s power surge resulted in 274 total home runs—the most in the majors—establishing them as a constant threat to change games with one swing.
Aaron Judge has been nothing short of magnificent, slashing .331/.457/.688 with 53 homers, 114 RBI, 137 runs scored, and 12 stolen bases (caught just five times). Judge’s ability to combine power, patience, and surprising speed makes him arguably baseball’s most complete player and the centerpiece of New York’s championship aspirations.
The Yankees’ advantage becomes even more pronounced in high-pressure situations. With runners in scoring position, New York posted a .785 team OPS—fifth-best in baseball—demonstrating their ability to capitalize when it matters most. This 37-point OPS advantage over Boston in these crucial spots represents a significant edge.
Boston’s Lengthy Injury List
The Red Sox enter the playoffs severely depleted, with 15 players on the injury report. Notable absences include:
This extensive injury list has forced Boston to rely heavily on depth pieces and has limited manager Alex Cora’s strategic flexibility throughout September.
New York’s Health Status
The Yankees are comparatively healthy, though they’re monitoring second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. (forearm), who’s listed as questionable. Other injuries include:
While Cole’s absence impacts the rotation depth, having Fried healthy and sharp for Game 1 keeps New York in excellent position.
The season series between these rivals produced unexpected results. Boston dominated the overall matchup, winning 9 of 13 contests despite finishing with five fewer wins overall. However, recency matters in playoff baseball, and the Yankees claimed two of three games when the teams met at Fenway Park in September.
This late-season shift coincided with New York’s torrid stretch run, where they played their best baseball of the year. The momentum from that September surge carries significant weight as the teams reconvene for October baseball.
Moneyline Pick: New York Yankees -149 (5 Units)
Multiple factors support backing the Yankees on the moneyline despite the modest price. First, Max Fried’s recent dominance gives New York a measurable pitching edge. His 1.55 ERA over the last seven starts compared to Crochet’s 3.13 ERA, combined with superior WHIP numbers (1.04 vs. 0.87), suggests the veteran southpaw is the safer play in a win-or-go-home scenario.
Second, the Yankees’ superior performance with runners in scoring position provides a crucial edge. That .785 OPS with RISP compared to Boston’s .748 mark means New York is better equipped to capitalize on the scoring opportunities that playoff baseball inevitably presents.
Third, home-field advantage cannot be dismissed. The Yankees earned the top Wild Card seed and home field for a reason—their late-season surge and 94-win campaign demonstrated championship-level baseball. Playing at Yankee Stadium, with the short porch in right field perfectly suited for their right-handed power, amplifies their offensive advantages.
Finally, while Boston won the season series, the September meetings showed a Yankees team hitting its stride while the Red Sox sputtered down the stretch. Playoff baseball rewards current form, and New York arrives playing their best baseball of the season.
Total Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (4 Units)
Game 1 of playoff series historically favors pitchers, and this matchup sets up perfectly for the under. Both Crochet and Fried have demonstrated the ability to dominate opposing lineups, and both should be operating with maximum focus and adrenaline.
September pitching statistics support this play. The Red Sox posted a 3.81 team ERA during the season’s final month (10th in MLB), while the Yankees checked in at 3.85 ERA (11th). These numbers reflect bullpens that tightened up heading into October, providing both managers with reliable options to protect leads.
The head-to-head trends also favor the under, with the total staying low in six of the last 10 meetings between these clubs. Playoff baseball’s heightened intensity typically leads to more cautious at-bats early in series, as neither team wants to fall into an 0-1 hole. Expect both offenses to approach their initial plate appearances with patience, working deep counts and forcing pitchers to earn outs.
This opening game of the AL Wild Card series presents a fascinating clash of styles and storylines. Boston brings a young ace in Crochet who has dominated the Yankees previously, along with the confidence that comes from winning nine of 13 regular season matchups. However, New York counters with superior overall talent, better clutch hitting, home-field advantage, and a veteran starting pitcher performing at an elite level.
The Yankees’ late-season surge and home-field edge make them the logical choice to draw first blood in this best-of-three series. While the -149 price isn’t providing significant value, it reflects the reality of New York’s advantages in this specific matchup. Combined with the pitching-friendly dynamics that typically define Game 1, backing the Yankees on the moneyline and the under on the total represents the smart play.
Why are the Yankees favored despite losing the season series?
The Yankees’ -149 moneyline reflects their superior overall performance (94-68 vs. 89-73), home-field advantage, and most importantly, recent form. While Boston won 9 of 13 regular season meetings, New York captured 2 of 3 games in their September series at Fenway Park. Playoff baseball heavily weighs current momentum over historical matchups, and the Yankees finished the season playing championship-caliber baseball. Additionally, their .785 OPS with runners in scoring position (5th in MLB) compared to Boston’s .748 mark (16th) gives them a measurable edge in high-leverage situations.
Is Garrett Crochet’s lack of playoff experience a concern?
While Crochet is making his postseason debut, his regular season success against the Yankees (3-0, 27.1 IP, 39 K) and elite metrics (93rd percentile strikeout rate, 90th percentile chase rate) suggest he’s ready for the moment. Young pitchers often thrive in their first playoff appearances due to fearlessness and lack of negative memories. However, Max Fried’s playoff experience and recent dominance (1.55 ERA over last seven starts) provides New York with a slight edge in the pitching matchup.
Should bettors be concerned about the Yankees’ bullpen?
The Yankees bullpen posted a 3.85 ERA in September (11th in MLB), showing improvement down the stretch. While Gerrit Cole’s absence impacts rotation depth, it actually strengthens the bullpen by allowing elite arms to be saved for high-leverage situations. Manager Aaron Boone has several trustworthy options to protect a lead, which is crucial in a tight playoff game. The under play partially reflects confidence in both bullpens to handle late-innings pressure.
What makes the under such a strong play in this matchup?
Multiple factors support the under: 1) Game 1 playoff dynamics favor cautious approaches and heightened pitcher focus; 2) Both starting pitchers are in elite form with sub-2.00 ERAs over their last seven starts; 3) The under hit in 6 of the last 10 meetings between these teams; 4) Both bullpens tightened in September with sub-4.00 ERAs; 5) Wild Card Game 1 historically trends under due to nerves and rust from the playoff break. The combination of elite starting pitching and improved relief corps makes high-scoring unlikely.
How should bettors approach the best-of-three series?
Focus on individual game matchups rather than series prices. Game 1 offers clear value on the Yankees given Fried’s form and home-field advantage. If Boston steals Game 1, their value increases dramatically for Game 2 with momentum. The best-of-three format creates volatility—one bad inning can end a season—making individual game analysis more valuable than series futures. Consider live betting opportunities as starting pitchers exit and bullpens enter, where odds can shift dramatically based on leverage situations.
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