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Pelicans vs Suns: Thursday Showdown at Footprint Center – Complete Analysis and Prediction

Team Form and Recent Performance Analysis

The struggling New Orleans Pelicans arrive at the Footprint Center with a glimmer of hope after securing back-to-back victories against the San Antonio Spurs. These consecutive wins have provided a much-needed morale boost for a team that has been battling consistency issues throughout the season. The Pelicans’ schedule doesn’t get any easier with upcoming matchups against the Jazz, Lakers, and Rockets, making Thursday’s contest against Phoenix particularly crucial.

Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns find themselves in the midst of a concerning slump, having dropped 10 of their last 13 games. Fresh off disappointing losses to the Raptors and Grizzlies, the Suns are staring down a gauntlet of challenging opponents with the Timberwolves, Clippers, and Nuggets on the horizon. Once considered championship contenders, the Suns have underperformed dramatically this season, earning them the unwanted distinction of being labeled the NBA’s most disappointing team.

What makes this matchup particularly intriguing is the Pelicans’ abysmal 4-win road record, with their last away victory dating back to January 14th. This road struggle presents a potential opportunity for the Suns to capitalize on home-court advantage and possibly reverse their recent fortunes.

Pelicans Offensive and Defensive Breakdown

New Orleans has struggled to find offensive consistency this season, averaging 110.5 points per game while shooting a subpar 44.7% from the field. Their three-point efficiency stands at 34.7%, placing them in the bottom third of the league. From the charity stripe, they’ve converted at a 76.7% clip, slightly below the league average.

Zion Williamson continues to be the focal point of the Pelicans’ offense, contributing 24.2 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. The dynamic forward’s ability to dominate the paint presents a significant advantage against a Phoenix team that ranks 29th in points in the paint (42.1 per game). CJ McCollum provides reliable perimeter scoring, averaging 22.2 points while stretching defenses with his outside shooting. Trey Murphy III rounds out the main scoring options as the team’s third double-digit contributor.

Defensively, the Pelicans have struggled mightily, allowing 118.6 points per game on 47.9% shooting. Their perimeter defense has been particularly vulnerable, with opponents connecting on 36.4% of their three-point attempts. One bright spot has been their rebounding, where they average 43.6 boards per game, potentially giving them an edge against a Suns team that ranks 28th in offensive rebounds (9.1 per game).

The Pelicans will need to overcome significant injury challenges as they’ll be without Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Brandon Boston, Kelly Olynyk, and Bruce Brown for Thursday’s contest.

Suns Offensive and Defensive Profile

Despite their disappointing record, the Suns have maintained respectable offensive numbers, averaging 113.8 points on 47.6% shooting. Their three-point shooting has been a team strength at 37.6%, while their free-throw conversion rate of 80.5% ranks among the league’s best.

The star-studded trio of Kevin Durant (26.9 points, 6.0 rebounds), Devin Booker (26.2 points, 4.0 rebounds), and Bradley Beal gives Phoenix one of the most potent offensive combinations in the NBA. Durant’s mid-range mastery and Booker’s scoring versatility create matchup nightmares for most opponents, while Beal’s playmaking adds another dimension when healthy.

Defensively, the Suns have allowed 115.9 points per game on 46.3% shooting, with opponents hitting 36.1% from beyond the arc. Their rebounding has been subpar at 42.5 per game, which could become problematic against the Pelicans’ stronger presence on the glass.

The Suns will enter Thursday’s contest without Cody Martin and Monte Morris due to injuries, though their core rotation remains largely intact compared to the more depleted Pelicans.

Betting Trends and Historical Matchup Data

Several compelling betting trends make this matchup particularly interesting for analysts and bettors alike. The Pelicans have won three of their last four games as underdogs against the Suns, suggesting they’ve found ways to compete effectively despite the talent disparity. Additionally, New Orleans has covered the spread in seven of their last eight night games against Pacific Division opponents.

For Phoenix, their recent against-the-spread performance has been disastrous, going just 20-37-1 ATS this season. More specifically, they’ve gone 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. The Suns have lost each of their last seven night games against Southwest Division opponents, a troubling trend heading into Thursday’s divisional matchup.

Interestingly, the Pelicans are one of only two teams in the league to record four or more wins when trailing by 10+ points at halftime this season, demonstrating resilience that could prove valuable in a close contest. However, New Orleans has failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games on the first leg of a back-to-back, which is their situation entering Thursday’s game.

Expert Prediction and Analysis

Considering all factors, this matchup presents a challenging handicapping scenario. While the Suns possess superior top-end talent with Durant, Booker, and Beal, their collective underperformance this season cannot be ignored. Their 2-8 straight-up and 3-7 against-the-spread record over the last 10 games speaks volumes about their current form.

The Pelicans, despite their road struggles, have shown signs of life with consecutive victories. Zion Williamson’s ability to dominate inside against a Phoenix team that struggles to protect the paint could be a decisive factor. Additionally, CJ McCollum’s perimeter shooting could exploit the Suns’ inconsistent defensive rotations.

When examining the injury reports, the Pelicans are significantly more depleted, missing several key rotational players. However, the Suns’ season-long inconsistency and poor betting value (20-37-1 ATS) make them difficult to trust, even as favorites.

Given the Suns’ continued underperformance and the Pelicans’ recent momentum, taking New Orleans with the points represents the smarter betting option. While Phoenix may ultimately pull out a victory at home, expect the Pelicans to keep the contest competitive enough to cover the spread, particularly if Williamson can establish dominance in the paint against Phoenix’s vulnerable interior defense.

Prediction: Suns 115, Pelicans 111 (Pelicans cover the spread)

Insights

Why have the Suns struggled so dramatically this season despite their star power?

The Suns’ struggles stem from several factors: inadequate roster depth beyond their star trio, poor interior presence (ranking 29th in points in the paint), ineffective offensive rebounding (28th in the league), and inconsistent defensive execution. The chemistry between Durant, Booker, and Beal has also taken longer to develop than anticipated, leading to disjointed offensive possessions in critical moments.

Can the Pelicans overcome their road woes in this matchup?

While the Pelicans have struggled mightily on the road (just four wins all season), they match up relatively well against Phoenix. Their superior rebounding and Williamson’s interior dominance directly attack the Suns’ weaknesses. Additionally, the Pelicans have performed surprisingly well as underdogs against the Suns, winning three of their last four in that role, suggesting the matchup dynamics favor New Orleans more than their overall road record would indicate.

Which player matchup will have the biggest impact on Thursday’s outcome?

The frontcourt battle between Zion Williamson and whoever Phoenix assigns to guard him will likely determine the game’s outcome. Phoenix lacks elite interior defenders, and Williamson’s combination of strength and explosiveness presents a significant advantage for New Orleans. If Phoenix is forced to consistently double-team Williamson, it could create open perimeter opportunities for McCollum and Murphy III, potentially swinging the game in the Pelicans’ favor despite their road struggles.