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Air Force Falcons vs. San Diego State Aztecs: Betting Analysis and Prediction

The Air Force Falcons visit the San Diego State Aztecs at Viejas Arena on Wednesday, January 8th, for a thrilling Mountain West Conference showdown. Let’s break down the key elements of this matchup from a betting perspective, including team stats, recent performances, and trends, to find the best bets for this game.

San Diego State Aztecs: Strong Defense and Home Advantage

The San Diego State Aztecs have started the season strong with a 9-3 overall record and a 4-2 mark at home. Coming off a 76-68 victory over Boise State, the Aztecs are a formidable force in the Mountain West, known for their disciplined defense and efficient offense.

Key Stats

• Points per Game: 74.5 (210th nationally)

• Points Allowed per Game: 63.9 (26th nationally)

• Field Goal Percentage: 44.8% (205th)

• Three-Point Percentage: 36.8% (61st)

• Rebounds per Game: 37.8 (106th)

Players to Watch

• Myles Bird: Averaging 13.9 points and 4.5 rebounds, Bird leads the Aztecs’ scoring efforts.

• Nick Boyd: Contributing 12.9 points and 4.5 rebounds, Boyd adds depth to their offensive game.

Betting Trends

• The Aztecs are 5-6 against the spread this season.

• They have won the first half in their last seven night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

San Diego State’s combination of strong home performances and a defense ranked among the nation’s best makes them a tough opponent for any team, especially on their home court.

Air Force Falcons: Struggling on the Road

The Air Force Falcons enter the game with a 3-11 record, struggling especially on the road with a 0-5 record. Following a narrow 65-70 loss to Wyoming, the Falcons face an uphill battle against the Aztecs.

Key Stats

• Points per Game: 65.1 (344th nationally)

• Points Allowed per Game: 70 (146th nationally)

• Field Goal Percentage: 46.9% (94th)

• Three-Point Percentage: 34.6% (143rd)

• Rebounds per Game: 29.1 (359th)

Players to Watch

• Ethan Taylor: Leading the team with 14.4 points per game, Taylor also excels in rebounding (6.2) and assists (4.2).

Betting Trends

• The Falcons are 6-8 against the spread this season.

• Over has hit in 9 of their 14 games.

Air Force’s inability to perform on the road and their struggles on the boards are critical weaknesses that could be exploited by San Diego State.

Head-to-Head Matchup Analysis

San Diego State has dominated recent meetings with Air Force, winning the last nine matchups and covering the spread in six of those. Last season, they secured a 77-64 victory on the road, easily covering the spread. Key matchup trends include:

• Over is 4-2 in the last six meetings.

• San Diego State’s defensive prowess (35.7% opponent field goal percentage) has consistently stifled Air Force’s offense.

Why San Diego State Will Win

• Defensive Superiority: San Diego State’s defense ranks 26th nationally, allowing just 63.9 points per game. Against Air Force’s struggling offense, this edge could prove decisive.

• Rebounding Advantage: With 37.8 rebounds per game, the Aztecs have a clear edge over the Falcons, who rank near the bottom nationally in rebounding.

• Home Court Momentum: The Aztecs’ 4-2 home record reflects their ability to protect their court effectively.

Why Air Force Could Surprise

• Efficiency: Despite their struggles, the Falcons’ 46.9% field goal percentage ranks 94th nationally, indicating they can capitalize on their opportunities.

• Trends in First Halves: San Diego State has lost the first half in three of their last four night games against Mountain West opponents.

Insights

What’s the Key to San Diego State’s Success?

Their defense and rebounding are the foundations of their strong performances, particularly at home.

Can Air Force Upset the Aztecs?

It’s unlikely unless they dramatically improve their rebounding and free-throw shooting.

What is the Best Bet?

Taking San Diego State to cover the -21.5 spread at home seems like the safest play, given their dominance in head-to-head matchups and statistical superiority.

Prediction and Betting Tips

San Diego State enters this game as -21.5 favorites, and for good reason. The Aztecs outpace the Falcons in nearly every metric, from scoring to defense to rebounding. While Air Force has shown flashes of efficiency, their inability to compete on the boards and their dismal free-throw shooting (60.5%) will likely seal their fate. Expect San Diego State to capitalize on these weaknesses and secure a convincing victory.

Prediction: San Diego State 80, Air Force 58

Best Bet: San Diego State -21.5